Wallabies 2025

[Braveheart81]

The other wild card is Sua'ali'i, depending on how the tahs use him once he gets back on the field, but Schmidt probably still sees him as a centre first at this stage.

Sua'ali'i definitely makes things tricky. Providing he returns from injury soon-ish and plays well, he's almost certainly in the matchday 23 and probably in the starting XV.

In my view, the guaranteed selections from 11-15 and 22-23 are Ikitau, Jorgensen, Wright and Sua'ali'i. We almost certainly need a replacement 10 on the bench as no one else is a reasonable option to slot in there so you probably limit it to just the 23 jersey on the bench.

So there's 6 jerseys to fill and four players pretty much locked-in in my view.

I'd be tempted to stick with Ikitau and Sua'ali'i at 12/13 as there doesn't look to be as many good centre options and then you pick Daugunu in the 23 jersey as cover for 13 and wing.

 

[TSR]

I query whether Daugunu is the man for the starting side even acknowledging his great form. He doesn't really have the out and out pace to play striker winger anymore and as long as Ikitau is around he won't be 13.

I dont, as an example, that he could have scored the try that Potter scored from midfield against the Drua.

No - but that’s Jorge’s job. And Kellaway doesn’t have that pace either. On the other hand Potter isn’t going to bulldoze guys like Daugunu and Pietsch will.

The choice between Daugunu/Pietsch and the other options is a choice of styles. Kellaway and Potter will likely get some advantage from their involvement last year.

 

[Dctarget]

I want to see Potter boss some Kiwis first before his selection. TBH that's probably too high a bar for all our backs.

 

[Derpus]

I want to see Potter boss some Kiwis first before his selection. TBH that's probably too high a bar for all our backs.

The quality of our forwards certainly seems to be a step up on the quality of our backs at the moment. Bit of a reversal of historical trends.

 

[Wilson]

Sua'ali'i definitely makes things tricky. Providing he returns from injury soon-ish and plays well, he's almost certainly in the matchday 23 and probably in the starting XV.

In my view, the guaranteed selections from 11-15 and 22-23 are Ikitau, Jorgensen, Wright and Sua'ali'i. We almost certainly need a replacement 10 on the bench as no one else is a reasonable option to slot in there so you probably limit it to just the 23 jersey on the bench.

So there's 6 jerseys to fill and four players pretty much locked-in in my view.

I'd be tempted to stick with Ikitau and Sua'ali'i at 12/13 as there doesn't look to be as many good centre options and then you pick Daugunu in the 23 jersey as cover for 13 and wing.

I'm not 100% on Jorgensen right now. He's playing well, particularly in attack, and if he keeps it up he should probably be there, but there have been some flaws in his back 3 play defensively. It leads to questions about his experience/decision making and ability to organise there as a 2nd fullback. It was probably most stark when Kellaway was carded against the Reds, Jorgensen was the one charged with organising at the back and ensuring fullback was covered. Whether or not he should've been back for the Murray chip through it was absoolutely his responsibility to make sure someone was.

It's not all on him and he wasn't helped by a very raw backline around him, but it's leaving the door open for someone else right now, particularly going into a Lions series. That's where Kellaway in particular might step in, even with his own defensive issues I think he'll probably be seen as a safer option. Whether or not Jorgensen makes the 23 in that case might depend on the back up 10, but I'm not sure we need fullback cover as much as centre if Wright, Kellaway and Sua'ali'i are all starting, and Donaldson is also somewhere in the 23.

 

[Adam84]

Tend to agree on Jorgo, super talented but still gets shut out in some games like vs the Reds.. Experience in how get involved and come off the wing a bit more is needed i think. Not sold that he is an automatic starter for the Lions tour, by 2027 RWC no doubt he will be.

I want strong abrasive wingers, Pietsch and Daugunu are the current choice for me, constantly look for work, tackle like freight trains and fight for every single meter in contact. Kellaway might have the experience and utility value to cover 15 as well which saves him a spot on the bench, but he isn’t better than those other wingers mentioned above or Potter or Jorgensen.

 

[Dctarget]

Apparently Potter made 10 tackle breaks in his Drua game, which is the most on record for any WF player according to Opta.

 

[fatprop]

I’d have

11 - Jorgensen
14 - Kellaway
15 - Wright
23 - Daungunu

with Pietsch and Potter in the squad

I don't see Kellaway & Jorgensen functioning effectively as 11/14, just not enough workrate off the ball

It we are talking about "balance" I think this would be what we are looking at (today) - but 12 is the issue with IKITAU being the only decent test option we have at 12

10 Donaldson, LOLESIO
11 Daungunu, Pietsch
12 IKITAU, Paisami
13 Sua'ali'i, IKITAU, Daungunu
14 Jorgensen, Kellaway
15 Wright, Kellaway, Sua'ali'i

 

[Dctarget]

I don't see Kellaway & Jorgensen functioning effectively as 11/14, just not enough workrate off the ball

It we are talking about "balance" I think this would be what we are looking at (today) - but 12 is the issue with IKITAU being the only decent test option we have at 12

10 Donaldson, LOLESIO
11 Daungunu, Pietsch
12 IKITAU, Paisami
13 Sua'ali'i, IKITAU, Daungunu
14 Jorgensen, Kellaway
15 Wright, Kellaway, Sua'ali'i

I think for all this talk Schmidt will at least trial at training Kerevi and Koroibete.

 

[Dctarget]

As an aside, no Aussie team has beaten Chiefs, Crusaders or 'Canes yet. I just can't get around Hurricanes being bad, they've had some bad losses and some bad wins but they're so class. I think with Aumua back they'll rise again, they're yet to play any Aus teams.

If we wanted a miracle and all four Aussie teams in the finals, we're doing the right thing so far which is always taking points off Drua/MP (Moana Pasifika) etc. It would require Drua/MP (Moana Pasifika) & three NZ sides to go down. Which would be very difficult to pull off but not impossible. Essentially need to keep 'Landers, Blues and 'Canes losing. Make sure they don't take any points off Chiefs/Crusaders. Unfortunately I think the table will look very different in 5 rounds.

 

[wamberal99]

As an aside, no Aussie team has beaten Chiefs, Crusaders or 'Canes yet. I just can't get around Hurricanes being bad, they've had some bad losses and some bad wins but they're so class. I think with Aumua back they'll rise again, they're yet to play any Aus teams.

If we wanted a miracle and all four Aussie teams in the finals, we're doing the right thing so far which is always taking points off Drua/MP (Moana Pasifika) (Moana Pasifika) etc. It would require Drua/MP (Moana Pasifika) (Moana Pasifika) & three NZ sides to go down. Which would be very difficult to pull off but not impossible. Essentially need to keep 'Landers, Blues and 'Canes losing. Make sure they don't take any points off Chiefs/Crusaders. Unfortunately I think the table will look very different in 5 rounds.

So all we have to do is keep winning? Kay!

 

[Braveheart81]

As an aside, no Aussie team has beaten Chiefs, Crusaders or 'Canes yet. I just can't get around Hurricanes being bad, they've had some bad losses and some bad wins but they're so class. I think with Aumua back they'll rise again, they're yet to play any Aus teams.

Definitely a massive game for the Tahs this Friday in Wellington.

Tahs are substantial underdogs but this is the sort of game which will determine whether they've got a claim to being a top 4 team or whether they're battling to squeeze into the finals in 5th/6th.

 

[Wilson]

I think for all this talk Schmidt will at least trial at training Kerevi and Koroibete.

Kerevi probably, Koroibete I'm not as sure given the strength of our unit and his poor form last year. I also got the impression the coaching setup wasn't entirely happy with how he handled the wrist issue and informing them of it last year, but that's just speculation on my part.

That said, I do also think people have been much too quick to count Paisami out. He's playing well, and was a go to for Schmidt last year - he was picked whenever available, including being rushed back from injury. But I also don't think he was the hand brake on our attack others do, I think we were intentionally playing a reduced style while the players learned the systems and got their ruck work down.

 

[Derpus]

I thought Koroibete's 'poor form' last year wasn't actually that bad.

 

[PhilClinton]

Kerevi probably, Koroibete I'm not as sure given the strength of our unit and his poor form last year. I also got the impression the coaching setup wasn't entirely happy with how he handled the wrist issue and informing them of it last year, but that's just speculation on my part.

That said, I do also think people have been much too quick to count Paisami out. He's playing well, and was a go to for Schmidt last year - he was picked whenever available, including being rushed back from injury. But I also don't think he was the hand brake on our attack others do, I think we were intentionally playing a reduced style while the players learned the systems and got their ruck work down.

I saw some highlights of Kerevi from recent games and he looks quite slow.

Funnily enough I never thought his ability to score tries was a strength - he was better at drawing in the defence, opening up the attack out wide and when he carried the ball it nearly always got his teams over the advantage line, significantly.

Looking at the way he's been playing in Japan he seems to be doing all of the above less, distributing a bit more and scoring more tries. Not sure if that's a good thing and honestly Paisami seems to be doing the Kerevi things better at this stage.

 

[Wilson]

I thought Koroibete's 'poor form' last year wasn't actually that bad.

Was it as good as our other wingers' form (then or now)?

 

[Derpus]

Was it as good as our other wingers' form (then or now)?

Maybe not but then again we've only had 6 Super Rugby rounds and I'd argue only two wingers are showing consistently good form actually playing on the wing (Jorgo and Potter).

 

[fatprop]

I think for all this talk Schmidt will at least trial at training Kerevi and Koroibete.

Probably, but neither justified their airfare last year

 

[Dctarget]

Promising returns from Valetini & Salakaia-Loto too. Both didn't look rusty at all, our forward pack needs some meat so happy to see them return smoothly.

 

[Major Tom]

I'm not 100% on Jorgensen right now. He's playing well, particularly in attack, and if he keeps it up he should probably be there, but there have been some flaws in his back 3 play defensively. It leads to questions about his experience/decision making and ability to organise there as a 2nd fullback. It was probably most stark when Kellaway was carded against the Reds, Jorgensen was the one charged with organising at the back and ensuring fullback was covered. Whether or not he should've been back for the Murray chip through it was absoolutely his responsibility to make sure someone was.

It's not all on him and he wasn't helped by a very raw backline around him, but it's leaving the door open for someone else right now, particularly going into a Lions series. That's where Kellaway in particular might step in, even with his own defensive issues I think he'll probably be seen as a safer option. Whether or not Jorgensen makes the 23 in that case might depend on the back up 10, but I'm not sure we need fullback cover as much as centre if Wright, Kellaway and Sua'ali'i are all starting, and Donaldson is also somewhere in the 23.

He was very very good on the weekend though. For a young winger he must be exceptionally strong (stopped 2 brumbies tries). He also did successfully defuse the 50/22 - albeit with some doubt. Overall, he's been the standout Aus winger so far and he's shown he can more than handle test rugby. For me he's got that raw speed and freakish talent that would have most team's wary of. He's in the 15 for sure and I back him to learn from the Murray mistake.