I think the flipside to that of winning teams historically kicking more than losing teams is also situational.
They're not winning because they kicked more, they're kicking more than their opposition because they're winning. Losing team chances their arm more running the ball from positions they'd ordinarily kick for territory from and the winning team trying to play a territory game and happy to keep banging the ball into touch and causing a stoppage.
Maybe. I don’t really agree 100% - I think they were winning more because they kicked more but I do agree it is situational - depending on what the defence offers you. In some ways I am probably arguing semantics with you - but I do think there is an important context.
I think there were a couple of keys which all supported a more kick heavy game and all of which explain to different degrees Australia’s lack of success -
- modern rugby is based around field position. Yes, teams can and do launch long range attacks, but they are more opportunistic and generally rely on poor opposition kicks, poorly constructed kick chase lines or an overread by defence waiting for the kick. Most teams are conservative from their own end. Australia has struggled for some time to develop kickers with both distance and accuracy to win kicking duals and have been one of fhe poorest exponents of box kicking
- to your point on ‘situational’ kicking a lot of this comes down the a genuine triple threat ball player. The likes of Russell, Smith, Mo’unga, Pollard are all genuine triple threats who read play and execute short kicking and cross field kicking well. Cooper is our only recent 10 who could be classed the same. Gordon had potential but didn’t get there before he left. The flip side of their potency with the boot is that teams have to defend the threat which opens other opportunities - the kicking threat making teams more successful in attack
- more successful teams generate more penalty advantage plays creating opportunities for the kick under advantage. Too often Australia has either been the team under pressure or haven’t been able to sustain the pressure for long enough periods in attack
- more successful teams are receiving more kick offs which leads to an exit strategy. Teams like SA, NZ & France nail these routinely - go to their kick, generate field position, start the cycle. This has been a real point of weakness for the Wallabies although we did see some signs of improvement
Whichever way you look at it the key point here is that it has been some time since Australia had both the vision and ability to execute kicking under pressure to consistently challenge the best teams and it was something that still held us back in the northern tour. But if you take that back to BR’s post I was replying to that showed the best teams weren’t the teams kicking the most I’d guess that they were probably having to do less because they were winning field position and that they were probably still kicking better if if they weren’t having to kick as often.