Wallabies 2024

[TSR]

I was pretty happy with where Lynagh is at in super rugby this year and thought he played at least as well as any of the ofher 10s - with the unfortunate caveat that none of them set the bar particularly high.

In the normal course of events I think most would be pretty happy with where he is at as a 21 year old Super Rugby player. Personally I think he has less flaws in his game then McLaughlin-Phillips at this stage - although of course he has age on his side as well.

The problem is that they are trying to assess if he’s ready to be a test flyhalf. Some guys are good enough at 21 but I don’t think he is. It’s possible he won’t ever be - personally I am a bit more optimistic. But, like the vast majority of professional rugby players, at 21 he isn’t there yet.

1 really big thing for me - I hope he can get his hamstring issues sorted quickly. He’s not going to progress too far as a young pro 10 with dodgy hammies.

 

[JRugby2]

I couldn't agree more, with a few caveats, and I'm someone who has enormous problems from brain trauma incurred playing rugby. The worst problems are from repeated sub concussion blows. These still happen all the time in a rugby match. The law changes might remove 5-10% of these? Barely better than nothing, but if you then conclude that rugby is now "safe" for brains due to your law changes it is now probably more risky to potential players, mainly kids whose parents allow them to play.

I think the only positives surround post concussion syndrome (basically feeling mangled for 1+months at a time) and 2nd impact syndrome. A guy like Tom Curry is still playing, but everyone knows the risk given his concussion history. He's at high risk for PCS IMO given he's had 5+ documented concussions. He's still playing, but at least people know this is risky behavior.

It's still a farce though when a Wales player can be visibly knocked out and then allowed to carry on playing. There's no foolproof "test" the physio can do when they come on either. He may feel completely fine and be 100% responsive, but that doesn't change that he was unconscious two minutes ago.

All and all it's mostly a farce and issuing huge penalties to players who accidentally hit someone's head will make no material impact on head trauma. It is trying to lay blame on "bad actors" for what is actually a systemic problem. It's completely unfair to the players who get banned, fined etc., as well as the fans.

It'd be like designing a road that is completely dangerous, with random giant potholes, lanes that suddenly end, poor signage, but then throwing the book at drivers who crash. Then declaring, because of your harsh penalties, that the road is now "safe."

Sorry to read that you'd had your own personal experiences here mate - but glad to know you're still loving and advocating for the game.

I disagree with a fair bit of this however. The examples of Tom Curry and Botham are interesting too. Tom Curry is likely receiving a lot of specialist advice we're not privy too - and while I'm not an expert in this, I know in the UK there have been examples of players being medically retired, and their playing registration cancelled (Referee Nic Berry's playing career ended this way). All this to say he's probably being monitored and not there quite yet, despite his apparent risk, but when he gets there the decision will likely be made for him.

Botham on the other hand I'm questioning what Doleman thought he saw, purely because there are several cameras that an independent doctor sitting on the sideline monitors for such incidents. I can't fathom that in all of the stoppages we had around that moment, that the doctor wouldn't have seen what Doleman thought he saw (either him KO'd or the hit that apparently caused it) - but again, can't be sure. Not a dig at Doleman either, I think he did the right thing by stopping the game - but he would be looking at a 1000 things at once, head and eyes moving so may have not processed what he thought he saw, correctly.

I also don't think it's a farce to ask defenders to just aim lower to avoid accidental head contact, which is the main contention of the Kerevi hit and why his Red Card was upheld. If Kerevi was just a fraction lower, it would have be completely safe - and he agreed this in his hearing.

Head Injuries are a very real, existential threat to the game - whether it be a litigious threat, or parents determining that it's too dangerous for their kids to play. Rugby needs a credible defense when the games leaders are forced to front a judge (which will happen).

To use your road analogy, I don't think anyone has ever claimed that rugby is safe, or somehow even safer now we've introduced these heavy penalties. There is no reasonable way to completely fix the road so we're just asking people to slow down to avoid the giant pot holes here, as the only other option is to completely close the road entirely.

 

[dru]

I'm someone who has enormous problems from brain trauma incurred playing rugby.

Saddened to read that, Namerican. Hope you are proving resilient in working through it.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Most debutants for a hundred years. Let's see how they did, in my very unbiased opinion:

Top shelf, should definitely be in our best 23 going forward:
Williams - taken his super form and replicated it. Gets metres every time, does not look out of place at all. Best debutant of the group.
Sua'ali'i - 'nuff said, kid is good.

Looked promising will probably be in our best 23:
Kailea - big large human, difficult to tackle. Scrum needs lots of work but in our 23 almost because we have no other options.
Peitsch and Jorgensen - very different wingers but both done well with their chances. I'd imagine one of them will partner Kellaway on the wing and the other on the bench. Don't know if it's just youth, and attraction of top line speed but Jorgensen looks to have the higher ceiling.

Expect them to be in our squad but not 23:
Uru - Played well against a weak side, happy to him fill the squad, versatility is useful. Probably competing with Cale for squad backrow. He's performed best of this category.
Cale - largely unremarkable debut, this is more off his super form. Hopefully another big pre-season and he'll be back better than ever.
Hodgman - similar to Cale, surprised not to see more of him but shown nothing internationally.
Lancaster and Potter - level below the other wingers, I expect them to be fighting each other for the final squad spot and we won't carry both.
Flook - Will be in squad more through lack of depth than proven ability. Hopefully gets a chance to tear in this weekend.
Tizzano - Done his role and nothing more. Scotland was disappointing, doubt he'll make the 23 with Fraser fit but will definitely be squad back up. (can see Reimer taking his spot).
Canham - played like his super version, can't teach big boyness but dicks for hands. Will be our 5th lock in the squad.

Jury is out, need to see more:
Nasser - promising player, probably a cycle too soon. Don't think he'll get in ahead of Faessler, Porecki, BPA or Longeran.
Reimer - suspect he'll take Tizzano's spot but needs more game time

Doubt we'll see them in the squad again
Stewart - Was okay. But will be stuck behind Kerevi, Paisami and Ikitau (maybe). Unless injuries no room for him in the squad.
Lyangh - I really don't see it with this kid. I think HMP will usurp him at the Reds and take his Wallabies' position of 4th? In line.
Blyth - Would rather Ryan Smith.

I like the list. Schmidt has clearly tested a few of them in the Wales series and the RC.

Squad as it’s been for the tour feels like what the goal is for the Lions. Centres outside this group will only get in through injury. In the jury is out section I’d say Nasser is in the bottom group in reality. There’s better, bigger guys and it’s not like he’s a kid. He’s the same age as Faessler and older than Bell. Guys like Pollard have a much higher ceiling. He got his chance just like Blyth and I’d say a judgement has been made for now.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I think it will take an outstanding performance through the Super comp for an outsider to force his way into the squad. Probably the most likely would be Charlie Cale for the backrow because of his lineout work and attacking prowess. The JYD must also be a chance of coming into the wing mix, while it wouldn't surprise to see another hooker get a look in.

EDIT : there are signs of weakness occurring in the front row as well with a couple seeming to be falling off in form, so maybe a Blake Schoupp could come under consideration.

 

[stillmissit]

I think it will take an outstanding performance through the Super comp for an outsider to force his way into the squad. Probably the most likely would be Charlie Cale for the backrow because of his lineout work and attacking prowess. The JYD must also be a chance of coming into the wing mix, while it wouldn't surprise to see another hooker get a look in.

EDIT : there are signs of weakness occurring in the front row as well with a couple seeming to be falling off in form, so maybe a Blake Schoupp could come under consideration.

I agree with Charlie Cale and hope he does come in as he offers so much. We seem to be OK for hookers but it only takes one or two injuries. In the front row, the new Wallabies are not showing as much as I hoped. I thought Nongorr would be better.

 

[drewprint]

I think it will take an outstanding performance through the Super comp for an outsider to force his way into the squad. Probably the most likely would be Charlie Cale for the backrow because of his lineout work and attacking prowess. The JYD must also be a chance of coming into the wing mix, while it wouldn't surprise to see another hooker get a look in.

EDIT : there are signs of weakness occurring in the front row as well with a couple seeming to be falling off in form, so maybe a Blake Schoupp could come under consideration.

I agree with these, but also adding in Liam Wright (not that he’s an outsider exactly), depending on recovery timeline etc. I was thinking about it over the weekend: I think he was such a significant loss for Schmidt. Likely planning ahead for bringing Skelton into the fold, Wright offered that perfect top tier lineout option in the back row, plus the leadership role. With him out I think it’s left a vacuum now when playing Skelton.

 

[stillmissit]

I agree with these, but also adding in Liam Wright (not that he’s an outsider exactly), depending on recovery timeline etc. I was thinking about it over the weekend: I think he was such a significant loss for Schmidt. Likely planning ahead for bringing Skelton into the fold, Wright offered that perfect top tier lineout option in the back row, plus the leadership role. With him out I think it’s left a vacuum now when playing Skelton.

Rugby is a tough game and there are always guys whose bodies can't take those impacts. I hope Wright will recover to play again but been wondering about this for a while.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

At this point I hope the Reds and Wallabies can just get enough from him to get some results but the idea of a long term tenure seems slim. His body keeps letting him down. McMeniman comes to mind.

He’s 27. If he can get to a WC by 30 then it’s probably a success for a guy with 5 Tests in 5 years.

 

[Derpus]

Best ability is availability.

 

[stillmissit]

McMeniman comes to mind

An even better example, one of the best forwards I have seen prior to his injury run.

 

[Slim 293]

Daniel Heenan too...

There seems to be a curse surrounding good, tall, Wallaby 6's.

 

[Tomikin]

I think it will take an outstanding performance through the Super comp for an outsider to force his way into the squad. Probably the most likely would be Charlie Cale for the backrow because of his lineout work and attacking prowess. The JYD must also be a chance of coming into the wing mix, while it wouldn't surprise to see another hooker get a look in.

EDIT : there are signs of weakness occurring in the front row as well with a couple seeming to be falling off in form, so maybe a Blake Schoupp could come under consideration.

I would probably add that Koro will probably be given another shot as well..

 

[Namerican]

Saddened to read that, Namerican. Hope you are proving resilient in working through it.

Thanks bud. It's seriously sucked, but I did enjoy all my years playing rugby. I'm playing life on ultra hard mode, but these things happen for all sorts of reasons.

Thankfully my memory/mind are pretty much fine, but my ability to do anything useful is probably only 2 out of 3 on average. Due to horrible dizziness/vestibular issues that come and go.

Looking at friends who played rugby for 20-30 years it doesn't look good. Lots of suicide, alcoholism etc.

 

[Tomthumb]

I would probably add that Koro will probably be given another shot as well..

I hope not. Great in his day but he's well past it and with Pietch, Jorgenson, Potter & Toole I think we are all set for the left wing

 

[Namerican]

Sorry to read that you'd had your own personal experiences here mate - but glad to know you're still loving and advocating for the game.

I disagree with a fair bit of this however. The examples of Tom Curry and Botham are interesting too. Tom Curry is likely receiving a lot of specialist advice we're not privy too - and while I'm not an expert in this, I know in the UK there have been examples of players being medically retired, and their playing registration cancelled (Referee Nic Berry's playing career ended this way). All this to say he's probably being monitored and not there quite yet, despite his apparent risk, but when he gets there the decision will likely be made for him.

Botham on the other hand I'm questioning what Doleman thought he saw, purely because there are several cameras that an independent doctor sitting on the sideline monitors for such incidents. I can't fathom that in all of the stoppages we had around that moment, that the doctor wouldn't have seen what Doleman thought he saw (either him KO'd or the hit that apparently caused it) - but again, can't be sure. Not a dig at Doleman either, I think he did the right thing by stopping the game - but he would be looking at a 1000 things at once, head and eyes moving so may have not processed what he thought he saw, correctly.

I also don't think it's a farce to ask defenders to just aim lower to avoid accidental head contact, which is the main contention of the Kerevi hit and why his Red Card was upheld. If Kerevi was just a fraction lower, it would have be completely safe - and he agreed this in his hearing.

Head Injuries are a very real, existential threat to the game - whether it be a litigious threat, or parents determining that it's too dangerous for their kids to play. Rugby needs a credible defense when the games leaders are forced to front a judge (which will happen).

To use your road analogy, I don't think anyone has ever claimed that rugby is safe, or somehow even safer now we've introduced these heavy penalties. There is no reasonable way to completely fix the road so we're just asking people to slow down to avoid the giant pot holes here, as the only other option is to completely close the road entirely.

The point I am making is that not anyone: specialists, MRIs, physios etc. REALLY do not understand what is going on in the brain. We know that brain trauma is bad and that extremely obvious signs of such are bad: I.e. people that can't are unconscious, don't know what day it is etc. And that long term the consequences are dire.

But beyond that medicine is not able to determine much at all. For all they know Tom Curry is fine and he may well be fine in 15 years or he may be 100% fucked - they have no idea. The science isn't there yet.

I can't emphasize enough that doctors have no means of diagnosing concussion, let alone long term brain trauma. There is no MRI, brain scan, or anything. It's basically just the person saying "I'm fucked up and I don't know why." Or they are fine...until they aren't.

I'm friends with a former high level NFL player who was also an ice hockey goon. Easy 30+ concussions. There's still no real way to to tell that his brain is fucked compared to an average person, except he's barely functional in any aspect.

For me, I've never been knocked out, but of 8-20 rugby concussions the next day my vision was extremely blurry. My concept of space was off: I'd go to grab something simple like a toothbrush and I'd miss completely. The last concussion I had this state became semi-permanent. The only symptoms are self reported. All brain scans and vision tests I am 100% fine. But I'm often extremely not fine.

This isn't a pity party, I love rugby. But if you think binning Sam Cane or Kerevi tackling a guy high will fix this that's a farce. An absolute farce. Of all the brain trauma in rugby I received 90% was from me as the tackler/Rucker or hitting head off the floor. High tackles as a % of total head trauma is like 1% and they are acting like it is 95%. It's nonsense developed by lawyers. It has 100% to do with plausible deniability for a lawsuit and 0% for pkayer safety.

If Tom Curry can't work in 15 years none of the powers that be will give a fuck. They'll say they did xyz (useless) and that's it that's all.

 

[Tomikin]

I hope not. Great in his day but he's well past it and with Pietch, Jorgenson, Potter & Toole I think we are all set for the left wing

Maybe, Im a massive Toole fan, but he looked average for Australia A, we didn't use him correctly, and when the team doesn't create plays to get him in the game he becomes ineffective.. well that's how I felt during England A game.

The other's yeah are great, not seeing what others see in Potter but willing to just let it go and see how he does. Pietch is awesome at everything except scoring tries. Jorgenson, will be probably my pick of the bunch at the moment. Be interesting to see where the Tah's play JAS he might come into contention as a winger with Samu and Lenny in the centres.

 

[Braveheart81]

Maybe, Im a massive Toole fan, but he looked average for Australia A, we didn't use him correctly, and when the team doesn't create plays to get him in the game he becomes ineffective.. well that's how I felt during England A game.

This is always going to be an issue at higher levels though. He's not as much of a standout so why are you going to base your structure around optimizing him?

It's similar to Scott Higginbotham in my view. An absolute star at Super Rugby level where you definitely structured the way you selected and played your forward pack to compliment him. At Wallaby level he's no longer your best backrower so he needs to fit in with the other players and he's suddenly nowhere near as effective.

The other's yeah are great, not seeing what others see in Potter but willing to just let it go and see how he does. Pietch is awesome at everything except scoring tries. Jorgenson, will be probably my pick of the bunch at the moment. Be interesting to see where the Tah's play JAS he might come into contention as a winger with Samu and Lenny in the centres.

Pietsch to me seems like the natural successor for Koroibete. Playing as the roving winger who is asked to do a lot more defence. He's rarely going to be on the end of a full backline at set piece.

Who else is competing for that spot now? It would seem to me that Kellaway, Jorgensen and Potter are all better off being on the other wing. Maybe Potter is the most suited of those three to compete with Pietsch?

 

[Derpus]

I think we may still see more of Koroibete. I didn't think he was anywhere near as bad as people made out. But the obvious answer is Daugunu.

I would also genuinely like to see JAS run at 11 (I guess after the Lions at this point) with Kerevi and Lenny in the centres.

 

[Tomikin]

Yeah, I think Dangunu if he can get fit. But I guess who's playing on the wing probably isn't the biggest question for the team, they will all do a job if the rest of the team can function correctly.