So we've reached the end of 2022. We have four tests before a RWC squad is picked and five before the tournament begins.
The squad size is increased to 33 under the guise of improved player welfare (particularly with the 12 day stand down for concussion). I'd expect that this will certainly mean that no squads punt on taking only two hookers or halfbacks.
These are my locks (if healthy). I have included Leota here because I expect him to have plenty of time to return. I have excluded Tupou because I think time is against him.
Props: Slipper, Bell, Ala'alatoa
Hookers: Porecki, Fainga'a
Locks: Frost, Skelton
6: Holloway, Leota
7: Hooper
8: Valetini, Samu
That is 12 players. Expect 3 more props, 1 more hooker, 2 more locks, 1 more backrower
That leaves 14 spots for backs and I am expecting Cooper to recover in time.
Halfback: White
Fly half: Cooper
Centre: Kerevi, Ikitau,
Wing: Koroibete, Nawaqanitawase, Kellaway
Fullback:
Expect 2 more halfbacks, 1 more fly half, 2 more centres, 2 more fullbacks
The backs are really wide open.
McDermott, Gordon, Lonergan are probably the leading chances at halfback. Gordon has been poor, McDermott has been mediocre and Rennie clearly isn't a fan and Lonergan is arguably the next in line. Wide open there.
Foley and Lolesio are the frontrunners at 10. Donaldson, Edmed, Harrison are outside chances.
Paisami, Foketi and maybe Perese are the best chances for the centres.
Wright, Hodge, Petaia, Campbell, Banks and Beale are probably the best chances for wing/fullback.