Wallabies 2020

[rodha]

See I just don't see that as a compelling argument. To'omua has never suffered for being small. If bigger was better we'd have Eto Nabuli on the wing and Reece Hodge at flyhalf.

To'omua has runs on the board, I don't think we can just flood the back line with rookies and expect it to work out. McDermott at 9, Petaia at 13 and Wright or Daugunu on the wing is more than enough inexperience for a Bledisloe cup team.

If I was Rennie I'd want to fight fire with fire. One thing to remember is that Irae Simone and Jack Goodhue were midfield partners back at the Mount Albert Grammar 1st XV. He's a born and bred Kiwi. Having watched Super Rugby AU I reckon Simone has been the most similar style-wise to the NZ midfielders from Super Rugby Aotearoa.

And I think you're overstating the inexperience thing, Simone isn't exactly a baby. He's already 25 and he's played his fourth season of Super Rugby.

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

How about let's not select 90kg To'omua over the 105kg Simone at 12. Besides it's fair to say To'omua has not performed greatly for the Wallabies over the last 2 years (2018, 2019) since his return from Leicester. Why should he be guaranteed a starting spot?

Ask 36 (Twelvetrees) if To'omua plays small? To'omua and Sean McMahon have always played much bigger than their size. Jordan Petaia too.

 

[Hookerbytrade]

interested to see everyone's thoughts on this side and reasons why it'd be different.

slipper, faiinga, AAA, simmons, lukhan salakai loto, swinton, hooper, samu, white, oconnor, koroibete, To'omua, petaia, wright, hodge.

reasons being... slipper in a bledisloe has done it before he offers more across the park than sio IMO, swinton at 6 for some mongrel, loves getting stuck into work and hits hard, doesn't shy away from a challenge, need that against a strong kiwi backrow. backline picks itself based on form, oconnor has to play 10 if he starts, To'omua is a 12 and does it well, defensively very strong in that channel aswell. hodge at 15... i'm moving past DHP, i don't think he offers a great deal and hodge is defensively strong. played there a fair bit this year for the rebs. I'd probably have James ramm and wright toe to toe for that spare wing spot.

All of these players have been picked on form, you could say tupou deserves that 3 jersey but i'd hate to look up with 30 on the clock and have him fresh as a daisy ready to tear in. simmons at 4 is the only lineout option, i don't rate him but his experience can't be discounted and we need that. I'm hoping swinton gets a crack, he does lose his cool on the occasion which can be his downfall but he plays hard footy and is a strong 6 that i think provides a big motor and edge playing there.

 

[Sully]

10. If another poster does not understand or agree with your point after 3 or 4 attempts, LET IT GO, WALK AWAY. It is very boring for other posters when the thread gets hijacked by two people having an argument. Let this be your guide:

 

[sendit]

Wouldn’t mind having O’Connor at 15, has runs on the board there at international level and plays half his time there for the reds. Still faster and has a similar boot to DHP, there’s no standout option at the back for us

That way we could blood one of our young 10’s, don’t care which one, give one of them a crack and have To'omua at 12 to help with the heavy lifting

 

[Brumby Runner]

Same as with a few other posters, I think Rennie will go for experience and physicality for the first couple of Bledisloes.

In the backline, I reckon that means JOC (James O'Connor) at 10, To'omua at 12 and probably White at 9. Maybe DHP at 15 but only if he's properly fit. My choice otherwise would be Maddocks.

In the forwards, I think it will be (but not with a lot of confidence), Sio over Slipper to start for his physical play, AAA over Tupou on experience and form basis but Tupou to come on shortly after half time. Locks hopefully will be physicality over experience, so start with Philip and LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) with probably Hanigan on the bench. A comment above about Simmons being the only lineout option, I simply disagree with. True, he is only a lineout option (does nothing else around the ground) but Philip has shown he can call the lineouts and is also a top notch jumper. Simmons on the other hand has been outplayed at lineout time on a number of occasions this year. Philip has the added advantage of being very physical in his play - the less said about Simmons' physicality the better.

Michael Hooper is a certain starter, so the other two backrowers need to be able to play with extra physicality. Valetini and Wilson probably the strongest but won't be surprised if Samu starts at 8 with Wilson on the bench/.

 

[rodha]

Same as with a few other posters, I think Rennie will go for experience and physicality for the first couple of Bledisloes.

In the backline, I reckon that means JOC (James O'Connor) at 10, To'omua at 12 and probably White at 9. Maybe DHP at 15 but only if he's properly fit. My choice otherwise would be Maddocks.

In the forwards, I think it will be (but not with a lot of confidence), Sio over Slipper to start for his physical play, AAA over Tupou on experience and form basis but Tupou to come on shortly after half time. Locks hopefully will be physicality over experience, so start with Philip and LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) with probably Hanigan on the bench. A comment above about Simmons being the only lineout option, I simply disagree with. True, he is only a lineout option (does nothing else around the ground) but Philip has shown he can call the lineouts and is also a top notch jumper. Simmons on the other hand has been outplayed at lineout time on a number of occasions this year. Philip has the added advantage of being very physical in his play - the less said about Simmons' physicality the better.

Michael Hooper is a certain starter, so the other two backrowers need to be able to play with extra physicality. Valetini and Wilson probably the strongest but won't be surprised if Samu starts at 8 with Wilson on the bench/.

Does no-one else feel that Pete Samu seems like another Ardie Savea situation? They are both the favourites for the 8 jersey for their national teams, The Wallabies and All Blacks respectively. This season they've been playing entirely at No8 for their Super Rugby teams (and have been hugely effective there) but at just 100kg are arguably too small for international level 8's.

For the All Blacks, the balance of the back-row is compromised with Cane 7 and Savea 8, likewise for the Wallabies, with Hooper 7, Samu 8.

The similarities of this predicament is striking!

 

[Joe Blow]

IMHO Samu is an excellent bench option who covers all three back row positions and who can up the tempo and bring a lot of impact to the game when introduced. Otherwise start him at 6.
He was perfect in this role at the Crusaders and will bring the same to the Wallabies.

 

[Derpus]

Does no-one else feel that Pete Samu seems like another Ardie Savea situation? They are both the favourites for the 8 jersey for their national teams, The Wallabies and All Blacks respectively. This season they've been playing entirely at No8 for their Super Rugby teams (and have been hugely effective there) but at just 100kg are arguably too small for international level 8's.

For the All Blacks, the balance of the back-row is compromised with Cane 7 and Savea 8, likewise for the Wallabies, with Hooper 7, Samu 8.

The similarities of this predicament is striking!

You have a thing for big boys eh

 

[rodha]

IMHO Samu is an excellent bench option who covers all three back row positions and who can up the tempo and bring a lot of impact to the game when introduced.
He was perfect in this role at the Crusaders and will bring the same to the Wallabies.

Yes, I absolutely agree. And this is precisely the role Ardie Savea played when he debuted for the All Blacks in 2016.

Samu and Savea are very similar players in that regard, as probably not big enough to start at test-level, but with being your more lighter, more-mobile, nimble and athletic loose-forward.. you are most-likely to be more damaging and make the most impact coming off the bench later on in the match against those tired-legs.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Does no-one else feel that Pete Samu seems like another Ardie Savea situation? They are both the favourites for the 8 jersey for their national teams, The Wallabies and All Blacks respectively. This season they've been playing entirely at No8 for their Super Rugby teams (and have been hugely effective there) but at just 100kg are arguably too small for international level 8's.

For the All Blacks, the balance of the back-row is compromised with Cane 7 and Savea 8, likewise for the Wallabies, with Hooper 7, Samu 8.

The similarities of this predicament is striking!

And the two No 7s are the captains to boot if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Highkicks]

See I just don't see that as a compelling argument. To'omua has never suffered for being small. If bigger was better we'd have Eto Nabuli on the wing and Reece Hodge at flyhalf.

To'omua has runs on the board, I don't think we can just flood the back line with rookies and expect it to work out. McDermott at 9, Petaia at 13 and Wright or Daugunu on the wing is more than enough inexperience for a Bledisloe cup team.

What runs exactly? He hasn't ever been good enough to lock down a starting spot in the Wallabies, I don't see what has changed this year. He is not the incumbent 12, he was on the bench last year.

He is the same old player. He kicks poorly, he is average with ball in hand and isn't an incredible play maker. I also think his contact work is vastly overrated, he definitely goes hard and is enthusiastic but has terrible technique and nous. He is more likely to hurt himself than the opposition.

Simone on the other hand is more measured but far more effective in contact. He beat almost twice as many defenders (24/13) as To'omua and had triple the clean breaks (9/3) and makes more meters per carry (3.6/2.4). While also having a better pass and longer kick. For two players covering the exact same role Simone is better in every measurable facet. He even gives away less penalties and his tackle percentage is higher. To say To'omua should be a lock in at 12 seems ridiculous to me, he should have a real battle on his hands.

Having said that they are both clearly good players but I don't know where you are all forming these opinions. Is it purely because Kafer bangs on about To'omua at any given Opurtunity?

 

[Adam84]

It pointless comparing Simone and Toomuas stats when they haven’t played the same position all year.

 

[Highkicks]

It pointless comparing Simone and Toomuas stats when they haven’t played the same position all year.

Not ideal but not pointless. I was trying to use the stats to illustrate some inconsistencies with some of the posts. To'omua is not someone whose form or past experience demand selection and Simone has done better in some areas, specifically ball in hand, where people seem to think he is weaker.

Also things like meters per carry is pretty handy even if To'omua started some games at 10. Plus they will likely be in direct competition for the 12 spot, so stats and observing their games is the best I can do short of taking my own stats for their games at 12.

 

[Braveheart81]

The reality though is that To'omua has played 52 tests and has generally been picked in the 23 when available over the last couple of years. None of the players that kept him on the bench are in the frame now.

I would be very surprised if Simone is picked for the first Bledisloe ahead of him.

To'omua's form has been good this year too. In many respects I think the Rebels were carried largely on the back of a few consistently excellent performers (To'omua, Philip, Koroibete) whereas the Brumbies were an altogether better team across the park with fewer standouts.

 

[rodha]

Do you guys think O'Conner and To'omua will make it through to the 2023 world cup?

They're both 30, not exactly old, but definitely in the twilight stages of their careers.

I'd be really sad if JOC (James O'Connor) didn't make it through to 2023, it would be such a great redemption arc to his career.

I was incredibly disappointed how Cheika under-utilized O'Conner for the Wallabies last year. He only started him for like 4 matches and gave him careless spells off the bench with only 5 minutes to go in the other matches.

If I was Cheika I would have dropped Beale from the 23 altogether. Consistently error-prone and atrocious on defense.

Cheika missed a trick by not starting O'Conner in the 15 jersey for every test match of 2019. I think he would've excelled there, great on defense, fantastic in the air (In Super Rugby AU final he took every high-ball for the Reds) and can organise the back-3.

Beale should've been thrown on the scrap heap 2 years ago.

 

[Highkicks]

I mean that is part of my point, we already know what To'omua brings and in my opinion it is not enough. If he wasn't even good enough to start in a team worse than the AB's last year then why is him starting now seen as such a good thing? Simone has a higher ceiling, if O'Connor is at 10 then I don't see why Simone shouldn't get a chance. I can't remember us having such a well rounded option at 12 as Simone in a long time.

You're probably right in that they will pick To'omua but I can't for the life of me see the upside to a 10. O'Connor 12. To'omua combo. I feel like Mo'unga alone could easily account for them both.

Also the Rebels, for me, had a great forward pack and coaching (forwards), then Koribete. It wouldn't be too controversial to say their backline never really fired.

 

[Braveheart81]

I was incredibly disappointed how Cheika under-utilized O'Conner for the Wallabies last year. He only started him for like 4 matches and gave him careless spells off the bench with only 5 minutes to go in the other matches.

He drafted him in from nowhere to everyone's surprise and then picked him in 8 of the 10 tests we played last year (5 starting).

That's pretty heavy involvement for someone that no one thought was on the radar last year.

 

[Zero_Cool]

How the fuck did I miss all this talk of Simone starting! He's a quality player but perhaps only marginally better than Hamish Stewart. It'd be crazy to start any of the Simone, Lolesio, Ikitau, Harrison. They are quality players but very obviously untested -- starting them against the All-Blacks would be madness. The only real young guns who might have a chance are the guys who have been clearly outstanding during SRAU -- so Philip, McReight, Wilson, Wright (Liam), McDermott, Petaia, Daugunu, & Wright (Tom). These guys were all outstanding during Super Rugby AU -- not the best in there position per se, but all were excellent during SRAU and so could have a chance to start.

Of those guys I'd say Tate is the most likely to start he's been so good at 9 he's almost gotta start. But obviously if Petaia is fit you'd love to have him in your XV. Daugunu has been in scintillating form before stalling a little bit in the Grand Final (likely the the Brumbies dealt with him very well). Obviously any combination of the Reds Backrowers could be in with a look.

I'd expect all of these guys and a lot of the young guys will get a run -- obviously depending on the form of SA & Argy, but I'd expect them to be quite limited. Some of the guys I could see getting game time against them would be Fa’amausili, Johnson-Holmes, Hosea, McReight, Swinton, Valetini, Wilson, Wright, Harrison, Lolesio, Paisami, Simone, Ramm, Wright & Maddocks.

I feel like Rennie would likely rotate up to about 6 of his 'young guns' into those easier games -- and I see little to indicate South Africa or Argentina will be anywhere near there best. Against the Argies you could potentially legitimately start a whole second XV or 'young' XV.

 

[rodha]

He drafted him in from nowhere to everyone's surprise and then picked him in 8 of the 10 tests we played last year (5 starting).

That's pretty heavy involvement for someone that no one thought was on the radar last year.

He brought him back only to play him at 13 where he couldn't make anywhere near as much impact.

Then only to relegate him to the bench for Petaia half-way through the world cup. The obvious solution was to play O'Conner at 15 with Petaia (or Kuridrani until Petaia's injury healed) at 13 all along! But Cheika bizarrely kept selecting the 34 year-old out of form Beale at 15... It was such a farcically wasted opportunity.