Wallabies 2020

[Lorenzo]

I don't disagree that we'd remain competitive. That's not really the problem in my eyes.

It's the loss of revenue from TV content. At the moment, Super Rugby is a big part of our local and international TV deal. And that deal makes up the bulk of our revenue base.

So ripping the talent out of Super Rugby reduces the value of those rights, which in turn sees a big hit to our bottom line. Which means less money for juniors, 7s, high performance etc.

Now the question of 'is this going to happen anyway?', and that might be another discussion for another thread, but for the time being we desperately need Super Rugby to be commercially viable.

Hold on. Super Rugby costs RA 30m a year to operate. Total broadcast rev (across the entire biz) is 60m. Do you really think Super Rugby accounts for >50% of the broadcast revenue, given how few people watch it?

We need an onshore provincial comp that is at legit provincial level but I'm not sure that Super Rugby is doing great things for our bottom line.

 

[mst]

I think Super rugby is fucked regardless.

Like any sport, we want to affiliate with our teams and players. To do so we need them the be accessible, familiar and have something relatable such as proximity, connection to the community or other form of attraction (team colours). It from here we then look at the players who form this team and we desire to see them excel and represent the team at a higher level such as the national level. Sports fans love to go on the journey with teams especially when there is success.

Aussie rugby does not have a dometic level that most casual supporters (non-grassroot rugby aligned) can follow or is of sufficient standard to be played in a 'proper" stadium, ground etc (whatever you want to call it). Stranding on the sideline at your local park really doesn't cut it.

Super rugby works(ed) because we got to see our best clubs (teams) against other nations clubs (teams) and we had the extra elements of regional representation (state based rivalry) that added some more spice. The NSW spoilt team, the struggling poor cousins in QLD, and the left over in the ACT.

We all know about the gap. 8 home games is not enough. We can't connect on such a lean diet. Then there is the void between the 8 games with timezone issue.

It's all unrelatable because we choose to have it so and keep it that way. The majority of Wallabies supporters don't go club rugby games. And trying to feed of the scerps of Super Rugby is just too hard. The NRL and AFL train is easy to catch. Its talked about in the office, down the street, by the kids.

Why; its present. If we can see it live is all over the media and on our screen a lot (and the current generation like screens)

Rugby is not. Its fucked because we keep it that way, want it that way. We want it for free (on our screens), we want to keep it all historically based and we can't agree on change.

I am lead to believe that if you can't see it usually it doesn't exist. If I don't pay for it,I will not see Aussie rugby on my screens other than the Wallabies. If I just want a good quality feed of Rugby I can dine out but only have 8 meals of Super Rugby. Thats supposed to sustain me for 44 more weeks. Its getting harder to resist the banquet of AFL, NRL, BBL and so much more that's available for 44, no 52 weeks in a year.

Super Rugby and the Wallabies is simply a sporting snack. We made it so. We fucked it.

 

[Spruce Moose]

There are key differences between Rugby and Soccer. Rugby in England for example has a salary cap and most European comps have a cap on international players. I don't think it'll turn into Australia being the South America of Soccer, rather similar to South Africa we will have potentially half to a full dozen of our RWC squad playing overseas. The unknown factors that come to mind are:
1. Japanese domestic rugby's future, there are plans to make a world class competition due to increasing popularity of rugby there, that has potential to pull more players to Japan. However as same time zone and close proximity to Oz and NZ should be better for our internationals play there than Europe.
2. Financial issues in European rugby (particularly England) there is growing concern that many clubs in England are spending over their means (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...s-the-full-club-by-club-breakdown-and-verdict) which could lead to clubs being in trouble in near future or bankruptcy longer term. That is why the RFU is trying to make clubs tighten their belts and stick to the cap (hence the large fine handed to Saracens this week). This likely leads to less foreign players being tempted by large pay checks, potentially good for English rugby internationally though.

 

[dru]

I was going to buy in to the discussion on Super and our approach - but haven't we strayed from the thread?

 

[mst]

I was going to buy in to the discussion on Super and our approach - but haven't we strayed from the thread?

Yep. I think so. But it probably suggest that most are believing they are intrinsically linked. One feeds the other. The strength of the first does determine the success of the second.

To get back on track as a Wallabies coach I would be going after Scott Robinson on a long team deal.

What to do with the long term Wallabies contacts is a real issue that needs to be resolved. Coaches coming in to rebuild probably don't want to be shackled to players especially for 5 yrs at the national level.

The Wallabies in 2020 need to be the next generation. In part, it need to show RA's and the games willingness to cut the past away, break the mold and start again with 2023 as the vision (at least that needs to be the public perception). This may include a new captain and some "names" having a year away for the Wallabies set up before being reconsidered.

I also hope someone in RA is brave enough to pick up the phone to Twiggy and ask nicely if instead of having potential talent just hanging around Super Rugby teams holding tackle bags and playing a few club level games, if the GRR is happy to let us help provide some players to make up the numbers which would also let our next generation get some game time, experience about travel and exposure to different ways even if it for a few months.

 

[Brumby Runner]

It would be harsh on some very good footballers, MST, but I tend to agree that the new coaching set up should be looking to the future perhaps from 2021. Players like Slipper, Simmons, Hooper, White, To'omua, Kuridrani, JOC (James O'Connor), AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), DHP and Beale perhaps should step down over the next year or two to allow the next generation to come through with experience to win the 2023 RWC.I would certainly wave goodbye to Simmons, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), DHP and Beale right now and the others would phase out at the end of 2020 or into 2021.

In 2020, the second row could be covered by Rodda, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) and any of Philip, Swain, Hockings or Blyth. Outside backs should see the likes of Petaia, Daugunu, Maddocks, Clark, Wright, Hanson and Banks coming through.

Longer term but well before RWC 2023, Robertson and HJH (Harry Johnson-Holmes) should be front runners for the front row behind Ala'alatoa, Sio and Thor. Hooker looks to be ok with Fainga'a, Uelese and Mafi.

No 9 should be covered by Powell, McDermott and Fines.

No 10 will hopefully see Harrison, Deegan and Lucas all in the mix, while Stewart, Foketi and Simone should be sufficient to cover No 12.

There will no doubt be others putting their hands up over the next couple of years, so I would certainly hope the new coach will be looking to make the squad his own after perhaps a settling in year in 2020.

EDIT : The No 7 spot will go to Liam Wright for a period without any diminution from Michael Hooper's reign while McReight could even replace Wright by 2023. 6 and 8 are well covered at present with Dempsey, Samu, Valetini and Naisarani but others like Swinton, Harris and Wilson will also be coming under serious consideration.

 

[Tomikin]

Yep. I think so. But it probably suggest that most are believing they are intrinsically linked. One feeds the other. The strength of the first does determine the success of the second.

To get back on track as a Wallabies coach I would be going after Scott Robinson on a long team deal.

What to do with the long term Wallabies contacts is a real issue that needs to be resolved. Coaches coming in to rebuild probably don't want to be shackled to players especially for 5 yrs at the national level.

The Wallabies in 2020 need to be the next generation. In part, it need to show RA's and the games willingness to cut the past away, break the mold and start again with 2023 as the vision (at least that needs to be the public perception). This may include a new captain and some "names" having a year away for the Wallabies set up before being reconsidered.

I also hope someone in RA is brave enough to pick up the phone to Twiggy and ask nicely if instead of having potential talent just hanging around Super Rugby teams holding tackle bags and playing a few club level games, if the GRR is happy to let us help provide some players to make up the numbers which would also let our next generation get some game time, experience about travel and exposure to different ways even if it for a few months.

Wouldnt it be awesome to see Razor doing this in Wallabies Colours .. new breed

 

[Tomikin]

It would be harsh on some very good footballers, MST, but I tend to agree that the new coaching set up should be looking to the future perhaps from 2021. Players like Slipper, Simmons, Hooper, White, To'omua, Kuridrani, JOC (James O'Connor), AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), DHP and Beale perhaps should step down over the next year or two to allow the next generation to come through with experience to win the 2023 RWC.I would certainly wave goodbye to Simmons, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), DHP and Beale right now and the others would phase out at the end of 2020 or into 2021.

In 2020, the second row could be covered by Rodda, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) and any of Philip, Swain, Hockings or Blyth. Outside backs should see the likes of Petaia, Daugunu, Maddocks, Clark, Wright, Hanson and Banks coming through.

Longer term but well before RWC 2023, Robertson and HJH (Harry Johnson-Holmes) should be front runners for the front row behind Ala'alatoa, Sio and Thor. Hooker looks to be ok with Fainga'a, Uelese and Mafi.

No 9 should be covered by Powell, McDermott and Fines.

No 10 will hopefully see Harrison, Deegan and Lucas all in the mix, while Stewart, Foketi and Simone should be sufficient to cover No 12.

There will no doubt be others putting their hands up over the next couple of years, so I would certainly hope the new coach will be looking to make the squad his own after perhaps a settling in year in 2020.

EDIT : The No 7 spot will go to Liam Wright for a period without any diminution from Michael Hooper's reign while McReight could even replace Wright by 2023. 6 and 8 are well covered at present with Dempsey, Samu, Valetini and Naisarani but others like Swinton, Harris and Wilson will also be coming under serious consideration.

I agree with most of it, but Michael Hooper is 28, just been our best player at the world cup and is Captain, you talk about filling the 7 role, he can do that, he just has been asked not too, and if he gets told by next years Tah's coach, and next years wallaby coach your job is to slow down ball and get turn overs his going to monster it. Lets wait to we see what happens under new coaching advice before you throw him out.

One thing you can't fault about Hooper, is pace, commitment, energy and skill, he was the top pilfer under Jack White in super rugby, his better now.. tell him to do that.. then lets compare Wright and McReight.... Your talking about the guy who hit 100 test quicker then any other player in the world.

 

[Derpus]

I agree with most of it, but Michael Hooper is 28, just been our best player at the world cup and is Captain, you talk about filling the 7 role, he can do that, he just has been asked not too, and if he gets told by next years Tah's coach, and next years wallaby coach your job is to slow down ball and get turn overs his going to monster it. Lets wait to we see what happens under new coaching advice before you throw him out.

One thing you can't fault about Hooper, is pace, commitment, energy and skill, he was the top pilfer under Jack White in super rugby, his better now.. tell him to do that.. then lets compare Wright and McReight.. Your talking about the guy who hit 100 test quicker then any other player in the world.

I doubt he's suddenly going to be required to turn over loads of ball. All the dominant 7s at the WC, the Kamikaze kids, etc did fuck all at the breakdown instead focusing on aggression in defense. If we finally get around to implementing a rush defense Hooper will be key to it.

 

[Lorenzo]

I think focusing on 2023 in any respect is daft.

We probably won't win in 2023. Too much can go wrong too easily. He'll, the Abs - the most dominant sports team in history - are only 3 from 9. Subjugating the bledisloe and everything else in between now and 2023 looks and feels pretty stupid when you don't win it.

Erasmus was asked about 2023 and he said they would focus on the 2021 lions tour and worry about the RWC after that. And I think, given rugby injury (Pat Lambie was starting for the boks less than 3y ago and now he has retired), form, and the inevitability of new talent emerging over 4 years, people going to japan at 24yo becuase their family needs the cash and so on, hat's fairly sensible. If we must build towards something, perhaps it should be the 2021 RC/Bled?

Personally I think rugby is a sport where you don't need to worry too much about blooding. There's plenty of organic chances for new players through injury or guys leaving for Japan or whatever. Or you give them a bench spot, a luxury you don't have in cricket, for example.

I think we should be trying to win every test and if that means that in the 2022 RC we start players that we know are nor going to be available in 2023, then so be it.

If To'omua, Hooper, Kuridrani, JOC (James O'Connor) and White are the best players available over the next 3 seasons, they should be playing. If they become Indistinguishable (Or inferior, obviously) in performance to A younger player then yea, pick someone younger.

But we desperately need to be performing in the next 1,2 and 3 years. Like never before.

The other convenient thing, is that if we develop a pattern of excellence and winning over the next 3 years, that will feed into the 23 RWC, whether or not every single player in the 23 or 31 is the same.

 

[Viking]

I agree Lorenzo, to an extent, I think taking the mentality of selecting the best available starting 15 whether or not players are leaving or retiring the following year should be primary. It creates a winning culture.

However, you do need to develop depth, so when it comes to the bench, I have no issues with say selecting a rookie 10 for primarily development purposes and dropping potentially a stronger option out of the 23. I.e. JOC (James O'Connor)/To'omua if on the bench is dropped for a complete rookie.

 

[Lorenzo]

Yeah that makes sense.

I'm pretty sure we used the EOYT for blooding new players through the bench back in the day. I've no issue with that. I think for the RC and Bled we should pick the clear best 23 on the day, if such clarity exists (it often doesnt).

The guys I named above could have loads of good footy in them, and they could easily feature in side that wins consistently. Hell, Carter, Nonu and Conrad Smith all played in a RWC Winning side at the age of >=33.

If the next 3 years are like the last 3, no one in Australia will bother to get up to watch the wallabies play at France23.

 

[Adam84]

I think the shift to developing new talent is in the 50/50 selections...
Rather then going for the experience of someone like AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), go for the potential of Banks instead.

 

[Lorenzo]

Definitely.

If the first reason people provide for shipping in has-beens from OS is that they have a lot of 'experience', you already know it was a dumb move. Ashley Cooper never laid his hands on any meaningful silverware in the gold jersey and his experience is therefore mostly as a loser. We could have used that spot to eliminate the first tour jitters for a young player

 

[Tomikin]

Yeah pick our best 23 and lets win back the RC and Bledisloe

 

[mst]

My original suggestion to leave out many of the incumbents in 2020 and start with fresh blood was to avoid the mistakes of the past. Cast a completely new mould, rather than again building off the past failings and unsuccessful platform and culture. Reset the culture, expectations, performance bar and platform and instil it in to the new group who will be the foundation. Then bring in the old crew and make them adapt. Lets not start with rotten apples.

As far as the 5 year Wallabies contracts go I think it comes back to keeping it a competitive and relevant environment. Pat Lambie was a good example used above about how quick things can change, QC (Quade Cooper) is and example of where a coach wants to the culture or direction and Hooper being moved on by Jake White shows that it depends on what a coach see's or wants. Even Elton Jantjies is an relevant example. Good for a patch but Pollard showed he was the better option.

 

[Lorenzo]

I think the locker room cancer types should be moved on permanently. Even at a distance id say we could fairly accurately identify them. Hopefully the new coach and the recently revealed review panel will be able to do it with precision.

There isn't a single player in the country, or probably in any country, that is good enough to offset a bad attitude or less than a 100% devotion to the team cause.

 

[Forcefield]

Zack Holmes will be 33 by the next RWC. Good all round fly-half. Would be great to see hkm back in Oz.

 

[Derpus]

I think the locker room cancer types should be moved on permanently. Even at a distance id say we could fairly accurately identify them. Hopefully the new coach and the recently revealed review panel will be able to do it with precision.

There isn't a single player in the country, or probably in any country, that is good enough to offset a bad attitude or less than a 100% devotion to the team cause.

Who are the cancer types?

 

[Tomikin]

My original suggestion to leave out many of the incumbents in 2020 and start with fresh blood was to avoid the mistakes of the past. Cast a completely new mould, rather than again building off the past failings and unsuccessful platform and culture. Reset the culture, expectations, performance bar and platform and instil it in to the new group who will be the foundation. Then bring in the old crew and make them adapt. Lets not start with rotten apples.

As far as the 5 year Wallabies contracts go I think it comes back to keeping it a competitive and relevant environment. Pat Lambie was a good example used above about how quick things can change, QC (Quade Cooper) is and example of where a coach wants to the culture or direction and Hooper being moved on by Jake White shows that it depends on what a coach see's or wants. Even Elton Jantjies is an relevant example. Good for a patch but Pollard showed he was the better option.

Jake White didnt move on Hooper.. Hooper wanted to move back to NSW.. he started off not liking the smaller flankers but fell in love with Hooper and his work ethic. Dont re-write facts.