Wallabies 2019 Thread

[Slim 293]

The other problem with stats is, the SANZAAR stats are completely different to wherever you sourced yours from.............

eg. it has DHP making far less tackles than Banks, with a worse success rate.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Step one of going through Super Rugby stats: remember that SANZAAR is less accurate than throwing a hundred strawberries at a wall and counting the stains.

 

[Slim 293]

Step one of going through Super Rugby stats: remember that SANZAAR is less accurate than throwing a hundred strawberries at a wall and counting the stains.

It's generally the best of a bad bunch...........

 

[RoffsChoice]

The main controversies in Super Rugby stats are run metres and missed tackles.

They have the GPS tracker for metres run overall, but they still literally just have stat takers who go "I guess he ran about x metres" when someone has the ball. Some collections don't even count it as a metre run until they get in front of where the passer threw it.

Missed tackles is a mess. Some only define it as a missed tackle if it is also a tackle bust, which often causes confusion when they define a tackle bust as a missed tackle.

Take your own stats for a few games and find a source which has numbers that allign with yours. Every once in a while, compare to ensure that the source is still accurate.

 

[Derpus]

Take your own stats for a few games and find a source which has numbers that allign with yours. Every once in a while, compare to ensure that the source is still accurate.

Wild speculation is much less time intensive.

 

[Viking]

That'd be great, but I doubt Leali'ifano is statistically a better kicker with regards to 22m exits than Foley. I think they're both pretty average. I think the better exits for both Tahs and Brumbies were kicked by others. So, it (our kicking strategy) probably comes down to more global options in the backline than just who plays 10. The 10 is more likely to be picked on how they work with whoever is chosen around them, I reckon. I don't think either Leali'ifano or Foley would make a massive difference (overall as a 10) currently - wouldn't bother me which was chosen, to be honest. It's the current Wallaby way - compromise options - in more than a few positions and combos. Sadly.
It can work - Beauden Barrett is hardly the world's best kicker, nor defender, but you'd bloody take him, especially if you could replicate what he has around him, because of his prodigious upside.
And before some petal carries on about me comparing Foley / Lilo to Barrett - I'm not. I'm just saying your 10 does not necessarily have to be great at everything.
As I said earlier, if we get enough good ball, I think there will be enough attacking options available to score points and compete. If we don't, we're fucked.
View attachment 10877

Fair point. Except we know Kerevi is going to be at 12 - his form deserves selection. That takes away a solid kicking option a player like To'omua, Hodge at 12. I know Kerevi makes the odd kick but mainly when no other options are avaliable. I'd still rather Lilo do that then Foley if we are basing it on exiting the 22 - but I do agree neither will probably make a big difference

Also I think Barrett is a surperb kicker? I'm curious to know why you think he's average? Goals-kicking yes. But around the park he chip kicks and cross field kicks better then anyone? I can't recall any issue with him exiting the 22 either.

 

[KOB1987]

Fair point. Except we know Kerevi is going to be at 12 - his form deserves selection. That takes away a solid kicking option a player like To'omua, Hodge at 12. I know Kerevi makes the odd kick but mainly when no other options are avaliable. I'd still rather Lilo do that then Foley if we are basing it on exiting the 22 - but I do agree neither will probably make a big difference

Also I think Barrett is a surperb kicker? I'm curious to know why you think he's average? Goals-kicking yes. But around the park he chip kicks and cross field kicks better then anyone? I can't recall any issue with him exiting the 22 either.

 

[Gnostic]

The whole static pods thing isn’t working for us either.

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And I think our attack last year perfectly underlined the old, but still true - you have to earn the right to go wide.​

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Static never works. The problem isn't just that the pods are static, but the pods themselves. They are so scripted and so easy to defend that the ball is under pressure even with the pods supposed to seal the ball in the ruck immediately that the pod does nothing to advance the ball or set up the next phase of attack.​

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As for this year my fear is those pods will be targeted by "attacking defenders" with a scavenger coming in very very close behind. Think Pumas Lavinni tackler followed by either Matera or Crevy who will be all but impossible to get off the ball. or Boks it will be any number of the backrow or second row options followed by Malcom Marx over the ball. If the Wallabies persist with the pods, static or not, they are in big trouble.​

 

[Gnostic]

That'd be great, but I doubt Leali'ifano is statistically a better kicker with regards to 22m exits than Foley. I think they're both pretty average. I think the better exits for both Tahs and Brumbies were kicked by others. So, it (our kicking strategy) probably comes down to more global options in the backline than just who plays 10. The 10 is more likely to be picked on how they work with whoever is chosen around them, I reckon. I don't think either Leali'ifano or Foley would make a massive difference (overall as a 10) currently - wouldn't bother me which was chosen, to be honest. It's the current Wallaby way - compromise options - in more than a few positions and combos. Sadly.

It can work - Beauden Barrett is hardly the world's best kicker, nor defender, but you'd bloody take him, especially if you could replicate what he has around him, because of his prodigious upside.

And before some petal carries on about me comparing Foley / Lilo to Barrett - I'm not. I'm just saying your 10 does not necessarily have to be great at everything.

As I said earlier, if we get enough good ball, I think there will be enough attacking options available to score points and compete. If we don't, we're fucked.

I'd also say that the relative strengths and weaknesses of the kickers clearing from the 22 are hard to really mark because of the pretty poor tactics the Wallabies use (and SUper sides). As with a lot of other phases the kickers are under huge pressure from slow telegraphed passes, with "support" blockers poorly positioned and no other kicking option in position to act as a distraction to the defence. Eg if you have Hodge/DHP in the side why not stand him one away from Foley/Lilo/whoever and give him the ball a couple of times on an exit just to make that rush defence think a bit.

No Wallabies tactics have been for years that whoever is designated kicker must be used at all times, regardless of how it is going. As with many things the basic strategies to enhance what can be a player's weak spot (or at least not a strength) just aren't being used, and they are not even skills as such just basic strategy.

 

[Viking]

Maybe 'solid' was a bad choice... 'another' kicking option.

 

[Viking]

I'd also say that the relative strengths and weaknesses of the kickers clearing from the 22 are hard to really mark because of the pretty poor tactics the Wallabies use (and SUper sides). As with a lot of other phases the kickers are under huge pressure from slow telegraphed passes, with "support" blockers poorly positioned and no other kicking option in position to act as a distraction to the defence. Eg if you have Hodge/DHP in the side why not stand him one away from Foley/Lilo/whoever and give him the ball a couple of times on an exit just to make that rush defence think a bit.

No Wallabies tactics have been for years that whoever is designated kicker must be used at all times, regardless of how it is going. As with many things the basic strategies to enhance what can be a player's weak spot (or at least not a strength) just aren't being used, and they are not even skills as such just basic strategy.

Great point. Larkham at 10 didn't have great distance in his clearance kicks, Huxley and Gerrard were used more frequently in the pocket at the Brumbies for years. I know the game is a bit quicker now but surely it's an easy work-around to have the best kicker stand in the pocket. Crazy to think such a basic strategy hasn't been implemented.

 

[Proud Pig]

The one advantage of having KB (Kurtley Beale) at fullback is it will make the opposition attack far more predictable, they will be tempted to put up bomb after bomb knowing at some stage he will drop it. Out of all the fullback options he is by far the weakest under the high ball.
He does offer a little more creativity than the others but he is the least solid option there.
I want a fullback to do what a fullback is meant to do and not a fullback who is there as a second ten.

 

[cyclopath]

Fair point. Except we know Kerevi is going to be at 12 - his form deserves selection. That takes away a solid kicking option a player like To'omua, Hodge at 12. I know Kerevi makes the odd kick but mainly when no other options are avaliable. I'd still rather Lilo do that then Foley if we are basing it on exiting the 22 - but I do agree neither will probably make a big difference

Also I think Barrett is a surperb kicker? I'm curious to know why you think he's average? Goals-kicking yes. But around the park he chip kicks and cross field kicks better then anyone? I can't recall any issue with him exiting the 22 either.

Didn't say he was average, but talking about 22m exits, which we were, he doesn't get massive gains, nor does he with touch-kicking with penalties. Tends to pop it up a bit. Jordie belts it further. I wasn't talking about dinky little kicks.
To'omua has not demonstrated form to claim (or go close to claiming) the 12 position, especially if the clinching factor is his kicking, which is hardly spectacular.
And Hodge at 12 - erm, no.

 

[Derpus]

Neither Hodge nor To'omua should be in the team at all.

 

[Joe Blow]

Genia retiring from International rugby post WC. He wanted a 24month deal, RA offered him 18. So he then goes to Japan and retires from international rugby..can't help thing that RA really should have gone for 24 months..

It’s probably time to bring through McDermott after the RWC. White and Powell will be there to help him along. Not sure why he made the announcement now and not at the RWC?
He has been a great servant to Oz rugby.

 

[upthereds#!]

Fairly elaborate theory. He's on 100+ caps and will be 32 next year. He's probably just done.

If he didn't want to stay in Melbourne for another 2 years, then yeh I would say it was elaborate..but he did, and the only way that was going to happen was with an RA top up (which they offered him) and that would mean he would have to play wallabies. So yeh - he probably wasn't done, until he had to go to Japan.

 

[upthereds#!]

I heard he wanted a 3yr deal not 2. Also maybe his Japanese contract is based on him retiring.

I dare say if it is like France, you can earn more if you agree to rule yourself out of test selection.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Halfback selection next year should actually be pretty interesting. You'd think Powell would be the favourite to take over the 9 jersey - depending on how White fairs.

McDermott and Gordon should be both be in with a very good chance of earning a cap.

Derpus, where are you getting these flashes of insightful brilliance from? Certainly, next year the No 9 spot should see all of Powell, Gordon and McDermott given opportunities, while White probably won't be used until he actually returns at the end of the 2020 Super season. Must have been keeping a close eye on my posts lately, eh?

 

[Viking]

Didn't say he was average, but talking about 22m exits, which we were, he doesn't get massive gains, nor does he with touch-kicking with penalties. Tends to pop it up a bit. Jordie belts it further. I wasn't talking about dinky little kicks.
To'omua has not demonstrated form to claim (or go close to claiming) the 12 position, especially if the clinching factor is his kicking, which is hardly spectacular.
And Hodge at 12 - erm, no.

JOC (James O'Connor) 12 with Kerevi at 13 is a possibility. (although I hate Kerevi at 13 he loses so much impact)

Although I agree To'omua and Hodge are lucky to even be in the squad, but then again same probably goes for JOC (James O'Connor).

The fair and likely outcome will no doubt be Kerevi and Kuridrani in the centres. Which leaves Lilo/Foley a 50/50.

Banks I think is by fair the best kicker for touch, very accurate and nice distance. But can he be used effectively exiting the 22? And then we lose the extra playmaker and spark without Beale at 15 - although his spark isn't much on current form.

So who would you pick at 10 and 15?

I'd still go Lilo and Bank but then again my Brumbies bias may be shining through.

 

[Derpus]

JOC (James O'Connor) 12 with Kerevi at 13 is a possibility.

Although I agree To'omua and Hodge are lucky to even be in the squad, but then again same probably goes for JOC (James O'Connor).

The fair and likely outcome will no doubt be Kerevi and Kuridrani in the centres. Which leaves Lilo/Foley a 50/50.

Banks I think is by fair the best kicker for touch, very accurate and nice distance. But can he be used effectively exiting the 22? And then we lose the extra playmaker and spark without Beale at 15 - although his spark isn't much on current form.

So who would you pick at 10 and 15?

I'd still go Lilo and Bank but then again my Brumbies bias may be shining through.

I have a feeling the reason AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) is in is because Cheik wants specialist replacements for all positions. If TK goes down i wouldnt be shocked to see 12. Kerevi 13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)