Wallabies 2019 Thread

[Derpus]

Still don't think he hits hard enough. Koro is a nuggety little psychopath.

 

[fatprop]

I would easily take McCaffrey or Philip over Hanigan...

Hanigan is a decent Super Rugby player, but still not physically good enough for test rugby. [/Slim's broken record]

Whilst I don't necessarily disagree re Hanigan, we have no evidence McCaffrey or Philip would be any better at test level either

 

[Derpus]

Whilst I don't necessarily disagree re Hanigan, we have no evidence McCaffrey or Philip would be any better at test level either

Hard to have any if they never get a shot?

Hanigan has the strangest technique going into contact somtiems. He seems to occasionally duck into contact and assume a V like shape, with his head down near his knees and his but up in the air.

Honestly think his techique in contact is the only thing holding him back. That and the mindless penalties which are really annoying.

 

[RugbyReg]

Stats time!

One of Cheika's big focuses is on repeat involvements. Players making a tackle and then getting off their arse to get involved again.

ForceFan used to spend a lot of time counting ruck involvements which provided really good context.

There's nothing I've seen elsewhere that counts ruck and maul involvement.

So I've looked at a player's involvement, relative to minutes played, in terms of tackle efforts (tackles made and tackles attempted), runs and then a combination of the two (with turnovers added in for good effect).

I'm only looking at starting performances (no work done as a reserve) and removed anyone who only started one game (Lachie Swinton put in a good effort last week, for instance).

So let's go through the motions and look at Minutes per Tackle -basically how often these players are making tackles.

To be expected it's dominated by backrowers which makes the efforts of Les Makin (across 2 games) and Harry Johnson-Holmes (across 6 games) very impressive. Oh and Feao Fotuaika for a former fatty making his first run in Super Rugby is doing damn well too.

Michael Hooper shouldn't be a surprise at the top but it's always a good reminder of why he is held in such high regard by Cheika and co. Luke Jones's work is exceptional too with 3 starts at BS and 2 at lock. He's firming as a definite Wallaby squad member.

Bernard Foley doing a lot of work too, which is interesting considering he's generally 'hidden'.

Looking now at Minutes per Run, which is self evident but looks at who are making the most run efforts.

View attachment 10528

No surprises around Samu by any means. In fact not many surprises anywhere there. Naisirani showing his chops as a runner, with LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)'s workrate also impressive. Hooper still very busy and Foley's again on the list.

Ok, so if I was to define INVOLVEMENTS as the tackles efforts (tackles plus missed tackles), runs and turnovers we can look at a broader Minutes per Involvement. I did originally have in passes and kicks, but it skews it too far to scrumhalves.

So in the top five you've got probably our 4 main backrow candidates (perhaps add Dempsey who is towards the bottom of this list).

Again, tremendous work by HJH (Harry Johnson-Holmes) with ASY (Angus Scott-Young) also working hard (as you'd expect with a backrower).

Foley is high but his Tackle Efforts include a lot of missed tackles.

Without trashing anyone, I'm going to start a new post with the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

[Derpus]

Loving this stat stuff reg.

Berney is doing a lot of work because, based on his missed tackles, he's being targeted a lot.

 

[RugbyReg]

Ok, so just looking from the bottom up and starting with Minutes per Tackle you can expect outside backs to be towards the back end. And it is.

The first non-back 3 member is Will Genia, who I guess spends a fair bit of time in the backfield anyway. Faulkner and Talakai are the interesting ones. Considering their game time they are making bugger all tackles (not missing many mind you) but their defensive workload isn't high.

The other name that stands out is Reds 8, Scott Higginbotham who is not doing a lot of tackling. Just 21 tackling efforts in 4 games.

Now looking at the tail enders of the Minutes per Run.

Now this is where you'd expect to see your props really and so we do. Faulkner and Talakai both up there with Tetera making a run per half basically. Topping the list though is Les Makin who seems lucky to touch the ball once a game.

Surprised to see McDermott and Gordon so high considering most see them as running halves, particularly over someone like Joe Powell.

Given Cusack and Wilkin's 7s experience you wouldn't be mad to suggest they may be looking for a few more runs.

So, let's look at that overall Minutes per Involvement list to see if there are any surprises.

No real surprises there. Talakai and Faulkner out in 'front' from an involvement perspective only really contributing directly (not including scrums or rucks/mauls) every 10-12 minutes. Can't criticize as it's working for the Rebels at the moment, but perhaps only v Australian teams?

Scott Higgers again my big takeaway. I just don't think we are getting enough out of him. Timu has just started one match and put in some huge numbers that game. Hopefully Thorn can overlook any personal issues with him and get him back in the squad.

Perhaps we should expect more from our wingers? But again defensive factors are here too.

Just out of this list is Taniela Tupou with 20 runs, 21 tackle efforts and no turnovers across his 242 minutes for a rate of 5.9. For such a dynamic athlete perhaps we need to expect more out of him here.

As always, stats always come with as many questions as answers, but still some interesting themes I reckon.

 

[Derpus]

I'd be interested in seeing how many involvements a winger like Naholo gets in a game. He seems to really look for work.

Or maybe that's perception because he's so effective when he is involved.

 

[RugbyReg]

good point. Some benchmarking would be interesting wouldn't it? Perhaps one day. I'll see how it goes.

 

[fatprop]

Stats time!


Bernard Foley doing a lot of work too, which is interesting considering he's generally 'hidden'.

Because he is a potential defensive liability and the playmaker

So at worst you are tiring the playmaker and at best, because he goes low, there is a pop pass

Brian Smith coached NRL sides always ensured Andrew Johns topped the tackle count as well

 

[dru]

Because he is a potential defensive liability and the playmaker

So at worst you are tiring the playmaker and at best, because he goes low, there is a pop pass

Brian Smith coached NRL sides always ensured Andrew Johns topped the tackle count as well

I completely agree with this approach. Horses for courses and a fly half has more important priorities.

 

[TSR]

I don't think I am. I'm working on the fact that both of them are in our best 23 and if we go in with a plan of starting Pocock in every game he's not going to last the tournament. He never has in two previous RWCs and his frequency of niggling injuries is higher now. He's played 3 games so far this season and one of those was only for a few minutes.

I just think that if we head into this test season and then the RWC thinking Pocock can play 80 minutes week in, week out, we're going to end up spending more games with no minutes from him than we are with 80 minutes or close to.

So do you manage Pocock's workload and try and get involvement from him in all our games or do you play him until he breaks and then lament what a shame it is that he gets bashed up on the field so much?

Look - I’ll temper my response by saying he is currently out. Until such time as he is fit to play and demonstrates he is performing close enough to 100% this is a non issue.

If they have to manage his work load, so be it. Rest him or bring him off the bench as required to ease the load ingames that should be won regardless.

However, ever game that counts he starts. I can live with Hooper starting too, but Pocock starts.

He is clearly our best player.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

So based on Reg's stats (which are fantastic BTW) you'd say the back row should be Jones, Hooper and Isi, with Pocock either starting with Hooper or as an impact player. This is pretty much in line with what a lot of posters have been saying about the top candidates for Le Wobs this year. I'm going to have to go along with that analysis, because I haven't seen a single minute of Super Rugby in 2019.

 

[A mutterer]

id have beale nowhere near the squad based on performances or stats. he has reverted to pre UK days with his habits, and i see him either crabbing too much or waving his hands around like he is at a festival or something.

 

[Derpus]

id have beale nowhere near the squad based on performances or stats. he has reverted to pre UK days with his habits, and i see him either crabbing too much or waving his hands around like he is at a festival or something.

Yeah he flapped about for one of the Sunwolves tries like a chicken.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I think there is hidden in the gems in Reg's stats, some evidence of the problems currently besetting the Brumbies, and their prospective Wallaby contenders.

The tackle effectiveness or success rate of the Brumbies outside backs is woeful.

Tom Banks - 14 tackles and 7 missed for a success rate of about 67%;

Andy Muirhead - 9 tackles and 5 missed for a success rate of about 63%;

Lausi Taliauli - 5 tackles and 4 missed, a success rate of about 55%;

Chance Peni - 5 tackles and 7 missed, a success rate of about 27.5%;

Henry Speight - 16 tackles and 6 missed, a success rate of 72%.

No wonder opposition teams are finding it easy to score tries out wide.

 

[Slim 293]

I think there is hidden in the gems in Reg's stats, some evidence of the problems currently besetting the Brumbies, and their prospective Wallaby contenders.

The tackle effectiveness or success rate of the Brumbies outside backs is woeful.

Tom Banks - 14 tackles and 7 missed for a success rate of about 67%;

Andy Muirhead - 9 tackles and 5 missed for a success rate of about 63%;

Lausi Taliauli - 5 tackles and 4 missed, a success rate of about 55%;

Chance Peni - 5 tackles and 7 missed, a success rate of about 27.5%;

Henry Speight - 16 tackles and 6 missed, a success rate of 72%.

No wonder opposition teams are finding it easy to score tries out wide.

It's an indictment on the Brumbies defensive issues this year, that on too many occasions (particularly against the Rebels and Canes) the opposition had numbers and space out wide with only one Brumbies defender.

 

[Derpus]

Chance Peni doesn't look like he's improved his tackling at all.

 

[fatprop]

I think there is hidden in the gems in Reg's stats, some evidence of the problems currently besetting the Brumbies, and their prospective Wallaby contenders.

The tackle effectiveness or success rate of the Brumbies outside backs is woeful.

Tom Banks - 14 tackles and 7 missed for a success rate of about 67%;

Andy Muirhead - 9 tackles and 5 missed for a success rate of about 63%;

Lausi Taliauli - 5 tackles and 4 missed, a success rate of about 55%;

Chance Peni - 5 tackles and 7 missed, a success rate of about 27.5%;

Henry Speight - 16 tackles and 6 missed, a success rate of 72%.

No wonder opposition teams are finding it easy to score tries out wide.

There are some caveats in pure stats, most wingers are are defending against multiple units.

 

[Rebels3]

Wingers missing tackles is usually an indication of something happening in the middle of the park. I’d look at how many collisions the are winning in the middle, cause that’s saying to me the wingers (considering it’s all of them) are been exposed because the opposition has front football, making it easier to shift from side to side. Or they are throwing too many numbers into the rucks creating space on the flanks.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Or they are chasing kicks and getting stepped by their opposite number