Wallabies 2019 Thread

[formerflanker]

For want of a better description, I see Sam Carter as a "tough nut".
His uncompromising defence and strong breakdown play are key ingredients for success in the RWC knock out games.

 

[Adam84]

Safe for what? 3 shit for brains penalties per game and nothing that stands out in his game aside from a decent tackling % ?

Carter calls a better lineout, has a better % and has made more tackles, has the form/combination with the rest of the tight five that everyone is in agreement are the best choices.

Carter is playing in a better pack that much is correct

 

[KOB1987]

Nowhere near the Wallabies at the moment. For mine he has to earn his way back in via Super Rugby and then we'll see. No short cuts.

He is nowhere near Soup at the moment, AFAIK. He was a great talent, no doubt about it. But that was then, this is now.

You beat me to it Wamberal.

Yes, he needs to earn his way back into super rugby first, via the NRC or Bris Premier comp or whatever. We’d give him a run at Mudgee but not enough games left to qualify for the finals so what’s the point.

 

[Dctarget]

Here's some slightly more readable (though not really) data comparison on the locks in consideration.

*Coleman only played 10 games for 56 minutes average.
** LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) split his time between lock and flanker so his numbers will be skewed.

Observations:
- All locks have around 90% tackling success. Pretty high, not incredible, not shit. No one is better/worse. Except for LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) down at 82%. Don't know if that's from defending out in the wider channels or he is just worse.

- Sam Carter loses the ball a lot. Rodda has great control, only lost it 5 times in a season.

- Simmons, renowned penalty magnet, should not be so renowned any longer. Also, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) only gave away an incredible 3 penalties. Pretty impressive.

 

[Dctarget]

Some more data on attack this time:

Observations:
- Arnold gets meat pies.

- Philip is the best lock of the season on paper. Monster in attack. Significantly more metres gained, defenders beat, clean breaks and offloads than the rest. If what they say about the Wallabies being data centric is true, he'll be going to Tokyo.

- Rodda is not as damaging as I initially thought. Getting worst run metres tied with Carter.

- Coleman for what minutes he did play, was average.

 

[Dctarget]

Obviously, this is just data and doesn't paint the full picture. It doesn't recognise how abrasive Rodda is in defense etc. But numbers wise, your locks should be Arnold and Philip.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Quick comparison of the players's seasons:

|Tackling| |Runs| |Run Metres| |Defenders Beaten| |Cleanbreaks| |Offloads| |Penalties|
Carter 93% 85 89m 3 1 8 11
Simmons 88% 75 111m 4 5 7 8

So, Simmons has more defenders beat, more clean breaks, 1.48m/run to 1.04m/run, and wait for it, shit for brains with less penalties conceded. And he has has had one less game.

I'm not Carter's biggest fan since 2015. But comparing locks by stats for centres? That's a tad fucked.

Go by lineouts won, tackles made, tackle percentage, and effective breakdown actions, and then have a use of the old eye-test and see how the props in front of the locks do when that lock is there vs when another lock is.

Then, if it's close, look at error count and penalties conceded.

Then, if it's still close, look at the other non-lock skills.

 

[Dctarget]

I'm not Carter's biggest fan since 2015. But comparing locks by stats for centres? That's a tad fucked.

Go by lineouts won, tackles made, tackle percentage, and effective breakdown actions, and then have a use of the old eye-test and see how the props in front of the locks do when that lock is there vs when another lock is.

Then, if it's close, look at error count and penalties conceded.

Then, if it's still close, look at the other non-lock skills.

Yeah, definitely. They were the only statistics my app had on them. I never quite know where to get my stats.

 

[cyclopath]

Did you see the absolute dumbass penalty Carter conceded on the weekend?
Along with his 2 runs for no metres gained? Carter passed the ball once and only other thing he did was tackle decently.


Quick comparison of the players's seasons:

|Tackling| |Runs| |Run Metres| |Defenders Beaten| |Cleanbreaks| |Offloads| |Penalties|
Carter 93% 85 89m 3 1 8 11
Simmons 88% 75 111m 4 5 7 8


So, Simmons has more defenders beat, more clean breaks, 1.48m/run to 1.04m/run, and wait for it, shit for brains with less penalties conceded. And he has has had one less game.

To be honest, I think both are useless. But can't say Carter is any less shit than Simmons.

Edit: sorry, GAGR doesn't like my formatting, that data is pretty hard to read but tl;dr Carter is even more shit than Simmons.

Congrats for actually getting some data.
To go completely empirical here, if you'd asked me before I read that, I'd have said, on my watching (which has not been all games by both, granted, but similar numbers) that they were much of a muchness.
Which it kind of seems they are.
Did they have other data?
oops - already asked.

 

[cyclopath]

I'm not Carter's biggest fan since 2015. But comparing locks by stats for centres? That's a tad fucked.

Go by lineouts won, tackles made, tackle percentage, and effective breakdown actions, and then have a use of the old eye-test and see how the props in front of the locks do when that lock is there vs when another lock is.

Then, if it's close, look at error count and penalties conceded.

Then, if it's still close, look at the other non-lock skills.

I don't think all those numbers are irrelevant - lack of impact is an oft used "metric" around here, and some of these go to that. Comparing impact in a scrum is hard too. Anecdotally, apparently, Simmons was rated by props in the scrum - who knows. Problem is that scrum change enormously when front rows and locks are changed, often at similar times, so the number of variables being altered makes analysis bloody hard.
Of course line outs won should be looked at, but not necessarily only the raw number, rather the percentage of success when thrown to - we all know certain jumpers will call themselves or be called more than others.

 

[Derpus]

Do we have more traditional lock stats to go with those above?

Sure looks like Phillip should be the fourth lock. Coleman has had a quiet season.

 

[Slim 293]

Interesting that you’ve got Carter for 89 run metres, and the SANZAAR rugby stats app has him at 337 metres......... a slight difference?

 

[Brumbieman]

Ya....89 metres run in an entire season of rugby? An average of just over a meter per run?

So....he caught the ball and just immediately fell over EVERY SINGLE TIME?

Actually, those stats are even worse, because he's over 2m tall.

So, he caught the ball and somehow immediately folded in half BEFORE hitting the deck?

 

[Uh huh]

Interesting that you’ve got Carter for 89 run metres, and the SANZAAR rugby stats app has him at 337 metres... a slight difference?

Maybe Dctarget's stats are for when he had the ball.

 

[Bobby Sands]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/06/...E1iUTA0d40w8SLh5WSSK6RShLj-bspLUGAPQQRmidb89M

Spiro mirroring what many of us on here are saying.

It seems many in Australia want a Brumbies dominated side.

He even calls Rory Arnold Australia's best forward, which come to think about it is pretty close to the mark.

Also the Ponies did not concede a try against a maul all year, thats incredible.

 

[Show-n-go]

Ahead of Carter I’d have

Rodda
Arnold
Phillip
Coleman
LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
Simmons

And if not now then in 12 months or so Hockings and probably Blythe too

Carter is a great squad member, comes in and does a job at super rugby level. He got a few caps when our options were limited but generally speaking I don’t consider him a test player, that’s not an insult but his talent and physical presence just isn’t enough to be considered an international lock

 

[TSR]

Unfortunately for him I just think the boat has sailed for Carter.

He is very similar to Simmons and it is quite conceivable that he could have been the one with 80 odd test caps and Simmons could have been the one with a dozen or so.

Just not the way it planned out. He’s probably been a bit unlucky in that sense, but TBH, there have been far unluckier players over time.

 

[RoffsChoice]

I don't want to see Carter in the Wallabies because the only lock he has shown an ability to effectively partner with is Arnold, but Rodda has done the same and is a better lock, and I don't expect Carter to give you the impact off the bench that you want. Philip, on the other hand, is exactly what you want in terms of impact, and is, at worst, at Carter's level, though almost certainly better.

But Carter has been a better lock than Simmons for the last six years, despite his drop in form post 2015. I'm not saying Simmons is better when I say I don't want Carter in the 23, haha.

 

[RebelYell]

*Blyth (hopefully for the last time)

 

[Finsbury Girl]

Forwards we have plenty who are good enough. Backs on the other hand, well looking at the names bandied around none would scare any oppo with the exception of Kerevi.