Wallabies 2019 Thread

['Tattsy'TaylorFan1]

Pardon my youth, but what's the Ben Darwin factor?

He founded a company called Gainline Analytics which looks at team cohesion etc. He has done a stack of podcasts and stuff about his work analysing sports teams. Basically how much people have played together, how well different combinations know each other (eg. how much feel does Kuridrani have for Kerevi's defensive habits at 12, is he likely to shoot out of the line or hold off a scrum?) Generally he has been playing with Simone all season at 12.

 

[TSR]

I think the two variables are what level of rotation Cheika uses over the RC and how many newbies, if any, he runs with.

Regardless of last results, I find it very unlikely that Cheika is going to give consideration to more than 3-4 new players and/or go for large scale upgrades in the involvement of fringe players. Players like Mafi, Rangi, HJH (Harry Johnson-Holmes), Philip, Naisarani, Valetini, McCaffrey, Jones, Powell, Lealiifano, Cooper, Hunt, Banks & Pulu are all impacted by this (and no doubt a few I’ve forgotten). Meanwhile guys like Simmons, Coleman, Hanigan, Dempsey, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), Phipps, Foley, Beale, DHP & Maddocks all May benefit.

On the one hand, doing the same thing and expecting a different result is idiocy. On the other experience performs well at World Cups. Bringing in a whole bunch of rookies, or guys with minimal caps is unlikely.

Here are the guys I expect to see feature in the RC
Props - Slipper, Sio, Ala'alatoa, Tupou, Kepu (doubt there is too much genuine conjecture there)
Hooker - Fainga’a, TPN, Ulese (I would like to see Mafi - but I think Cheika will go with Ulese who has at least had some test experience)
Locks - Rodda, Arnold, Philip & Simmons (sorry BR - I know you’ll disagree, but I don’t think both Coleman & Simmons will get dumped)
Back row - Hooper, Nasirani, Salakai-Loto, either Samu or Pocock & either Valetini or Dempsey
Halves - Genia, Powell, Phipps or White
10s - Foley & Lealiifano
Centres - Kerevi, Kuridrani
Wing/Fullback - Beale & Hodge (both also covering centre), DHP, Koroibete, Banks, Maddocks & maybe Pulu

Who did I miss?

 

[cyclopath]

I think the two variables are what level of rotation Cheika uses over the RC and how many newbies, if any, he runs with.

Regardless of last results, I find it very unlikely that Cheika is going to give consideration to more than 3-4 new players and/or go for large scale upgrades in the involvement of fringe players. Players like Mafi, Rangi, HJH (Harry Johnson-Holmes), Philip, Naisarani, Valetini, McCaffrey, Jones, Powell, Lealiifano, Cooper, Hunt, Banks & Pulu are all impacted by this (and no doubt a few I’ve forgotten). Meanwhile guys like Simmons, Coleman, Hanigan, Dempsey, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), Phipps, Foley, Beale, DHP & Maddocks all May benefit.

On the one hand, doing the same thing and expecting a different result is idiocy. On the other experience performs well at World Cups. Bringing in a whole bunch of rookies, or guys with minimal caps is unlikely.

Here are the guys I expect to see feature in the RC
Props - Slipper, Sio, Ala'alatoa, Tupou, Kepu (doubt there is too much genuine conjecture there)
Hooker - Fainga’a, TPN, Ulese (I would like to see Mafi - but I think Cheika will go with Ulese who has at least had some test experience)
Locks - Rodda, Arnold, Philip & Simmons (sorry BR - I know you’ll disagree, but I don’t think both Coleman & Simmons will get dumped)
Back row - Hooper, Nasirani, Salakai-Loto, either Samu or Pocock & either Valetini or Dempsey
Halves - Genia, Powell, Phipps or White
10s - Foley & Lealiifano
Centres - Kerevi, Kuridrani
Wing/Fullback - Beale & Hodge (both also covering centre), DHP, Koroibete, Banks, Maddocks & maybe Pulu

Who did I miss?

Looks about right. Obviously some peoples' preferences will miss out in lock and back row where we have some numbers now. That looks like the guts of it.

 

[TSR]

I did miss Petaia. If he is fit, I reckon Cheika will punt on him, especially given the patchy form of some of the wing/fullback options.

 

[Derpus]

Orite here's what the team will actually be:

1. Sio
2. Fainga'a
3. AAA
4. Arnold
5. Rodda
6. LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
7. Hooper
8. Naisarani
9. Genia
10. Foley
11. MK
12. Kerevi
13. TK
14. Maddocks
15. Beale

16. Slipper
17. Uelese
18. Tupou
19. Phillip
20. Jones
21.Samu
22. Powell
23.Banks

 

[Breakaway22]

Orite here's what the team will actually be:

1. Sio
2. Fainga'a
3. AAA
4. Arnold
5. Rodda
6. LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
7. Hooper
8. Naisarani
9. Genia
10. Foley
11. MK
12. Kerevi
13. TK
14. Maddocks
15. Beale

16. Slipper
17. Uelese
18. Tupou
19. Phillip
20. Jones
21.Samu
22. Powell
23.Banks

Swap Banks for Maddocks and Jones for LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) and you've got yourself a solid starting team.

 

[Bobby Sands]

God I hope Lilo shoots the lights out in the finals and is the Wallaby 10.

Come on Brumbies, force the hand.

Along with Samu, Arnold, potentially McAffrey etc.

 

[fatprop]

God I hope Lilo shoots the lights out in the finals and is the Wallaby 10.

Come on Brumbies, force the hand.

Along with Samu, Arnold, potentially McAffrey etc.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lilo & Foley are the two 10's taken, they are quite like like for like and will put their bodies on the line

 

[Strewthcobber]

Big Wobs squad training at Randwick last night. Sounds like just about everyone (non-brumbies) was there including White

 

[Braveheart81]

You would think an initial squad of 32-34 will be picked for the first 2 games

In 2015 I think Cheika picked 40 in his initial squad. Given the lead up time to the first test is one of the longer camps they've got, I think it will be a large squad at that point.

A smaller squad will obviously go to South Africa. It will be interesting to see how many more than the 23 plus a couple of emergencies he takes there.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lilo & Foley are the two 10's taken, they are quite like like for like and will put their bodies on the line

One effectively but the other not.

 

[Tomikin]

One effectively but the other not.

Who would you be taking.. ?

 

[Brumby Runner]

The effective one Tomikin; ie Lealiifano. Actually, Foley will probably go too, but hopefully as the backup, not the starter.

 

[Braveheart81]

It seems pretty clear that Leali'ifano has leapfrogged Cooper in the reckoning. Hard to see Cooper getting a look in now. His season got worse and worse as it went on.

I think it is still pretty likely that Genia and Foley will start the first test of the season. I doubt Powell and Lilo will slot straight in there based just on their form with the Brumbies (which has been excellent).

Powell has definitely improved his chances greatly of being in the squad. I still think there's a pretty strong chance he won't be.

 

[TSR]

To be fair BR - this was a race in 3 and the comparison I assume FP is making is with Cooper.

Cooper has had every chance to push for a recall/squad spot. Early in the season he was doing plenty right, in attack at least. As the season moved on, not so much. Foley hasn’t shot the lights out but he does deserve to be retained ahead of Cooper.

 

[TSR]

It seems pretty clear that Leali'ifano has leapfrogged Cooper in the reckoning. Hard to see Cooper getting a look in now. His season got worse and worse as it went on.

I think it is still pretty likely that Genia and Foley will start the first test of the season. I doubt Powell and Lilo will slot straight in there based just on their form with the Brumbies (which has been excellent).

Powell has definitely improved his chances greatly of being in the squad. I still think there's a pretty strong chance he won't be.

If Cheika leaves Powell out of the squad altogether it will make a mockery of any sense of picking the squad on form.

Incumbents often get a degree of latitude, and personally I have no problem with that, but Genia has been very lethargic and neither Phipps nor Gordon have done enough, either for the Waratahs this year or in tests in the past, to be considered a lock in for a spot.

 

[Braveheart81]

If Cheika leaves Powell out of the squad altogether it will make a mockery of any sense of picking the squad on form.

Incumbents often get a degree of latitude, and personally I have no problem with that, but Genia has been very lethargic and neither Phipps nor Gordon have done enough, either for the Waratahs this year or in tests in the past, to be considered a lock in for a spot.

I was including White as one of my three.

Powell has had a really good season and his form recently has been great. He's playing behind a pack that is substantially ahead of the other Australian teams.

Powell should certainly make a 40 man squad. I'd guess there will be four halfbacks in it. I still wouldn't consider his chances of being in the RWC squad as being very high.

 

[Derpus]

Not a fan of parachuting White in over some of the other guys over here showing form. McDermott and Powell come to mind.

Although, there is some appeal in letting the old guys have their last hurrah and then we can start clean with Powell, McDermott and Gordon from next year forward.

 

[Tomikin]

Not a fan of parachuting White in over some of the other guys over here showing form. McDermott and Powell come to mind.

Although, there is some appeal in letting the old guys have their last hurrah and then we can start clean with Powell, McDermott and Gordon from next year forward.

McDermott, did a bit early but the last month, he hasn't been around at all, I would suspect that the only outlier would be Powell now. Genia, Phipps and White will probably be there and a 40 man squad will have 4 and Powell.

Then the person who impresses in training/games in the RC will get the spots.

 

[Finsbury Girl]

McDermott, did a bit early but the last month, he hasn't been around at all, I would suspect that the only outlier would be Powell now. Genia, Phipps and White will probably be there and a 40 man squad will have 4 and Powell.

Then the person who impresses in training/games in the RC will get the spots.

He's been injured & up to then was the form halfback in the country by a mile.