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^ it's partly to do with the Scots only having a four-day turnaround v Japan's eight. I agree it's unlikely but IF Japan are in a position to qualify I think Scotland are definitely vulnerable.
It depends which Japan team shows up. The side that bumbled their way past Russia would get beaten by Scotland. But the Japan that beat Fiji (at full strength) reasonably comfortably in the Pacific Nations Cup in July would have a very good chance. Especially given Scotland's short turnaround.
Japan were clearly affected by nerves against Russia so maybe the pressure of the home world cup will be too much for them, but it could also be something they've got out of the way now and that they'll play at a much higher level in the rest of their games.
Despite that nervy start, I thought Japan didn't look anywhere near as bad as Scotland, whose entire attacking strategy was - ball goes to Hogg, Hogg kick.........