Tri Nations Game 6 - Wallabies vs All Blacks - Saturday 27 August 2011 - 3N2011

[disco]

Dan Vickerman is now 117kg so he has trimmed down a little bit.

I just want our boys to show up in defence & get off the line hard, Quade to straighten the attack & AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) to have a blinder.

I really like the forward pack they are big & mobile but I do think JOC (James O'Connor) is a big loss in attack I'm pretty pissed off that he won't be there on Saturday night but he stuffed up so he only has himself to blame.

I'd like Turner to get the 22 jersey but I think Deans will pick Barnes.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'd like Turner to get the 22 jersey but I think Deans will pick Barnes.

I think Turner is far more likely on the bench than Barnes. I think Deans will want Barnes playing 80 minutes or close to for the Baa Baas.

 

[PaarlBok]

New Zealand:
15 Mils Muliaina,
14 Cory Jane,
13 Conrad Smith,
12 Ma'a Nonu ,
11 Zac Guildford,
10 Daniel Carter,
9 Piri Weepu,
8 Kieran Read,
7 Richie McCaw (c),
6 Adam Thomson,
5 Samuel Whitelock,
4 Brad Thorn,
3 Owen Franks,
2 Keven Mealamu,
1 Tony Woodcock

Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 John Afoa, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Colin Slade, 22 Isaia Toeava.

 

[Riptide]

kick & chase, defensively sound back three with no real game breakers who can beat their man one on one with pace or footwork. The midfield is the most capped combination in the game and the front five is experienced and disciplined while their back row a no-nonsense smart, physical mobile group.

This NZ team will not be out-worked or managed easily out of a game. There are no “flighty” players here. They all show up for work each and every game. From an Aussie point of view, it’s disappointing that they are not persevering with Ali Williams, a player who is living off rep and is only there to manage the lineout late in a tight game.

Expect to see a WC squad have Cowan start, Weepu off the bench (he can’t last the 80), Ben Franks replace the pretty poor Afoa. Vito gives more ball carrying and speed off the bench but has he ever performed well at Test level.

SBW is expendable in this lower risk NZ squad.

 

[Hawko]

New Zealand:
15 Mils Muliaina,
14 Cory Jane,
13 Conrad Smith,
12 Ma'a Nonu ,
11 Zac Guildford,
10 Daniel Carter,
9 Piri Weepu,
8 Kieran Read,
7 Richie McCaw (c),
6 Adam Thomson,
5 Samuel Whitelock,
4 Brad Thorn,
3 Owen Franks,
2 Keven Mealamu,
1 Tony Woodcock

Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 John Afoa, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Colin Slade, 22 Isaia Toeava.

This is an interesting team and I think the Holy Trinity are, like Deans, using the game to get some final ideas on the no. 1 team for the WC without seriously downgrading the team for the trinations trophy:

1. I don't think these are the WC starting wingers, but this game is a bit of a trial to see how they go.
2. Surprised not to see Dagg get another run off the bench. Either Henry wants another look at Mils before deciding to dump him or Dagg is not on the first team radar. Still, I suppose Dagg may have already locked down one of the wing spots.
3. Barring injury, SBW looks like he is only going to be a dirt-tracker.
4. If NZ have the game under control, I think Slade will see significant time off the bench. If its close, I think they'll wait for the round robin for further trials.
5. This is Weepu vs Ellis for the back-up, I think, with Cowan the no.1 starter.
6. Don't understand the Messam demise, he wasn't that bad last week and his form all year has been awesome. I assume Kaino is injured, though I hadn't heard anything or perhaps its giving Thompson a chance to show out in his best postiion after making him play 7 (not well) last week.
7. Auditioning Whitelock vs Williams for the starting role, though my money is on Williams, especially if we attack the NZ lineout. Whitelock's lineout skills are inferior.
8. They are trying to run Woodcock up to form so they can use him instead of Crockett, but I wasn't that impressed with him vs SA.

The mind games continue. For our team, its best just to ignore them and go for broke to win.

 

[Scotty]

The match ups look pretty even:

Back three - equal
Centers - nz
Halves - equal
Loosies - nz just
Locks - aus just
Front row - equal

If the wallabies can contain nonu and smith, and match or better Mccaw and read, they will win the game.

 

[fatprop]

The match ups look pretty even:

Back three - equal
Centers - nz
Halves - equal
Loosies - nz just
Locks - aus just
Front row - equal

If the wallabies can contain nonu and smith, and match or better Mccaw and read, they will win the game.

what that doesn't measure is the ABs technical effectiveness & accuracy at the breakdown (meaning they use less at the breakdown), Aus loses concentration much more often than the ABs (and end up piling in)

 

[Jay]

101kg for a guy who is struggling to reach 6' is pretty big.

He'd only weigh the same as Genia if he had normal sized arms.

 

[Tangawizi]

I don't think that AB's lineup gives off the same intimidatory presence as the sides from 2-3 years ago. Actually, even from 3 weeks ago without Kaino or SBW.

They are there for the taking this match.

We have a much better conditioned and selected forward pack than last time around too with Samo in plus fitness & form gains for Elsom & Vickerman.

I think the Wallabies will roll them.

 

[Scotty]

what that doesn't measure is the ABs technical effectiveness & accuracy at the breakdown (meaning they use less at the breakdown), Aus loses concentration much more often than the ABs (and end up piling in)

I pressed the agree button, however the wallabies team is now shaping up better in this department. We have four players in the backs that are as good as their AB counterparts at the breakdown (Fa'ainga, McCabe, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Ioane), and are lining up with a more competitive forward pack in this area as well (improved form of Elsom vs Thomson who is lesser than Kaino, Samo/Higgers tag team vs the incomparable Read, our two best breakdown locks - Horwill, Vickerman and an improving front row).

I would add strength (where is Bruce) to 'technical effectiveness and accuracy', but I am quietly confident we can match them in this area on the weekend.

 

[Bruce Ross]

I would add strength (where is Bruce) to 'technical effectiveness and accuracy', but I am quietly confident we can match them in this area on the weekend.

Your mail may be more up to date than mine, Scotty. Has our training methodology been refocussed?

 

[Sully]

We may match them player for player but their team work and game plan is more effective.

 

[Mica]

I don't think that AB's lineup gives off the same intimidatory presence as the sides from 2-3 years ago. Actually, even from 3 weeks ago without Kaino or SBW.

They are there for the taking this match.

We have a much better conditioned and selected forward pack than last time around too with Samo in plus fitness & form gains for Elsom & Vickerman.

I think the Wallabies will roll them.

I would love it if you were correct.

The one thing the NZ team screams to me is a low mistake rate.
I think they will be very accurate and I hope that the Wallabies are patient and don't rush/push their chances unnecessarily.

I also think that this is a tactic that NZ will focus on.
They would have spoken about how the Wallabies try to play an extroverted brand of rugby and that constricting this frustrates them into becoming less patient and more adventurous (and generally less accurate) - hell I would have.

If the Wallabies can control this aspect of their "personality" and manage when they enter this mode, they will be in with a good shout.
If it's not working they need to play smart tactical rugby to build the confidence again by kicking to the corners, gaining field position and attacking the lineout.
Then once they start gaining a level of control in the game and things are working, unleash the backs (they need to build momentum first).

Just my 2 cents

 

[Richo]

We may match them player for player but their team work and game plan is more effective.

Pretty damn good summation, Sully.

 

[DPK]

Your mail may be more up to date than mine, Scotty. Has our training methodology been refocussed?

Perhaps the players ability to utilise their S&C on the field has changed?

 

[fatprop]

We may match them player for player but their team work and game plan is more effective.

We play the same game plan, we play All Blacks lite

 

[antipodean]

Forecast is for showers tending to rain.

 

[The_Riddler]

The game will be very tight. Very excited to see how our young centres rise to the occasion and shut down Nonu and Smith in attack. They are pound for pound two of our best defenders. A. Finger should add some much needed spice in our attack in the mid-field. Should be good.

 

[BDA]

Surely they could build a roof over suncorp?! ....although we need as much practice as we can get playing in damp conditions

 

[Scotty]

Your mail may be more up to date than mine, Scotty. Has our training methodology been refocussed?

Just suggesting that we are picking some of the stronger players we have available, and they are picking some of their weaker ones (comparatively speaking of course).