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Top 20s: Tri-Nations 1 and 2 2011

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Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
Continuing on from my review of 6N vs 3N Playstyles, I thought in the build up to this weekend's Wallabies-All Blacks showdown, I'd review the performances of the players in TN1 and TN2*.

Leading up to the huge game this weekend one of the Big Q's we all have is how will the breakdown pan out? So let's start with the breakdowns.

The 'OOA' stats relate to first three players to cleanouts (atk) and counter rucks (def). I'm assuming 'OOA' is 'onside on arrival.'

Top 20 Players to the Breakdown

t20at%20breakdown.jpg



Top 20 Tacklers

t20Tacklers.jpg



Top 20 Runners

t20RMs.jpg



Top 11 Kickers

t11%20Kickers.jpg


My observations:

1 - The strong performance we saw from Richie is reflected in the lists - he made 3 of the 4. Same goes for Carter. I'm sure someone will quip about Richie's invisibility cloak but I think it is fair to say the stats support what most of us observed in-game - his mobility is tracking up.

2 - That said Pocock has the wood on him for support in attack, it was hard to miss how fast Pocock and Alexander were in support and that is reflected here. Well done Mr Alexander.

2 - Sharp's performance was short, but with what time he had, he put in. I didn't see him making any major impacts at collision or dominating clearouts like Elsom, but the workrate is clearly there. I'm assuming Vickerman, a player I actually thought with McCalman fronted up vs Samoa, has shown pretty good fitness at training, but I don't think anyone should count Sharpie out of the squad past this weekend.

3 - Stegmann may have done well on being at a breakdown, but his tackle rates are what reflects the poor performance we saw. Less than 75%, by a forward? Not that he was alone there, Deysel, Smit and Kruger were worse. None of this is news of course, but it's a pretty stark result.

4 - check out Carters run stats, then add that nasty little grubber he likes to produce!




* Notes:
1-only players who played more than 20 minutes, or ran 5 or more times, or kicked 3 or more times, were included
2-'G80' is the stat over 80 mins, for example if they only played 60 mins, the number is scaled up to what it would have been at 80 minutes.
3 - source: Rugga Stats
 

Tordah

Dave Cowper (27)
2 - That said Pocock has the wood on him for support in attack, it was hard to miss how fast Pocock and Alexander were in support and that is reflected here. Well done Mr Alexander.

I think McCaw is a way better link player than Pocock, just as Pocock is a way better fetching 7 than McCaw now.
 

Joe Blow

John Hipwell (52)
Benny McCalman is conspicuously absent from every category except tackling where he comes in lower mid table at 100% completion.
But he really has not been so busy.
 

Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
Think you are highlighting a limitation of stats tho Joe - they don't show quality of play just quantity. Take Horwill, huge player for us, but not even on the tackle list. Yet I can recall at least one instance where he and Elsom hit a Bok forward so hard the ball popped to McCabe and the commentators thought Pat had stolen it, and that one led to a try.

Would need video analysis but I think McCalman is doing quality work clearing out and coming in hard? That said I'd love to see Samo get a shot, his aggression was a sight to behold in th Super Rugby.
 

minorbird

Tom Lawton (22)
Beware of the statistical inferences drawn where the sample size is a lofty 1, or at most 2.

What WOULD be a good idea though is to perhaps at the end of the Tri-Nations compare how form in Super Rugby translates to that of the international stage from a statistical standpoint at least. It would be nice to be able to objectively see how players either struggle to translate good form (is international rugby a step too far for some over-promoted Reds players?) or lift to the occasion despite earlier poor or no form (AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Vickerman).

Ruggastats would be perfect for this, but for basic stats Foxsports provides a starting point for comparison's sake...
 

Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
To be fair tho Minorbird, this isn't a set of statistical analysis using, say, chi square analysis to assert correlations, it's a basic summary of players performance and work rate. It is no different to fox sports data in that sense, and can help clarify by reducing bias, something we are all guilty of. He'll, it essentially is that - fox data you use to compare players put into a table.

Ironically I'd have great reservations trying to establish some kind of correlation or non-correlation of form for super rugby to Tests, the data is way too limited, changes over time, and is surrounded by crazy externalities you couldn't filter out such as injuries, coach interactions etc.

In short it's a tool. Like video analysis, commentary, internal memories. All of them are imperfect, but used well all of them add value.
 
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