Whenever someone suggests a draft for Super Rugby, I believe it instantly reveals a skin-deep understanding of the sporting business and landscape. It's analysis that seems to be little more than 'The AFL is going well and the AFL draft is exciting. We should do that as well'.
That's not exactly what we want from our new CEO.
WE'RE TOO SMALL FOR A DRAFT
Looking at the AFL, they have 18 squads of 47 players each, which is 846 first grade squad members in total across the country. At 50 drafts per year, they are using the mechanism to fill only 5.9% of total squad positions annually.
We have 5 Super Rugby teams with a squad of 38 players each, which is 190 first grade squad members across the country. Assuming we fill 5.9% of these positions each year (like the AFL), that's 11.21 players, or 11 players and a half-back, per year.
Not exactly a big event is it? I doubt it'd even get a single article, or be livestreamed on YouTube. RA didn't even organise anything for the John Eales Medal this year, how are they going to pull off an exciting draft?
IT'S NOT A GOOD OFFER FOR PLAYERS
The AFL's average salary was $406,000 in 2022, with only 10 players earning under $100,000.
The average Super Rugby salary was $156,000 in the same year, so it can be assumed that fringe squad members are getting far below $100,00. I'd estimate $50,000-$70,000.
For reference, you can earn $70,000+ in a call centre in Sydney. We're not offering our fringe squad members comfortable lifestyles, particularly in major cities, and I personally wouldn't move across the country to Perth for that salary, particularly when the opportunity cost of doing so is a far greater salary and more interesting lifestyles in Japan and Europe.
Of course, there is then the problem of international representation. Super Rugby is a glorified trial for Wallabies selection, and that is where the money is for players (via top-ups and match fees), as well as a boost in their profile that helps them monetise elsewhere, both during and after their career. You only have to look at Phil Waugh to see how playing for the Wallabies can open doors for you!
Look at the Western Force and consider their players representation in the Wallabies squad. It's not great is it? Being drafted there is essentially an enormous hurdle to higher honours. Seems like some players would want control over that, wouldn't they?
IT'S NOT USEFUL FOR CLUBS
Basketball and the AFL are largely games of agility, reflexes and coordination. Rugby is first and foremost a game of physicality: a big man will always beat a small man, all other things being equal.
The thing about 18-21 year olds is that they are very often not big men, relative to people in their mid-20s and beyond.
If you look at the 73 debutants in the AFL in 2022, 48 were 18 or 19 years old (65.8%). 9 of them were 20 years old and 4 were 21. Only 12 players (or 16.4% of debutants) were over 21. It's a young mans game.
Conversely, if an 18 or 19 year old debuts in Super Rugby, it's a news story (e.g. Petaia or Jorgensen). If a 20 or 21 year old debuts in Super Rugby, it's a huge talking point and will garner dozens of comments on this forum.
The key reality is that most draftees are useless to Super Rugby clubs for the first 3 or so years of their time in a squad, and therefore have to be compensated accordingly.
Of course, the draft could include older players too, but the exciting component of a draft is potential. Who wants to see Brian, the 27 year old electrician, be drafted on TV? Not me.
THERE ARE BETTER WAYS TO ACHIEVE THE SAME GOALS
If the draft is to drum up media interest, just sign more players like Sua'ali'i. If we assume that signing 10 draftees at competitive salaries (e.g. $150K+ per year), then it's about the same price as just signing another Sua'ali'i each year. He has already generated far more media value than a draft would.
If the core purpose of the draft is to secure young players for the future, do it directly and sign them on the salaries they're worth and can be afforded.
If the core purpose of the draft is to equalise talent across Australian teams, just give lower performing teams more money to sign players, or work through processes like centralised contracting.
THE VERDICT?
Nonsense. It's a fantastic system for sports that are suitable, but that ain't us.
