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The Super Rugby Finals!

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The Red Baron

Chilla Wilson (44)
It is that time of year again, the Super Rugby finals are upon us! Casting an eye over the list of finals competitors, it would seem apparent that there are some usual suspects present. I decided to delve a little further into the finals history of our 6 candidates this year, and have come up with some interesting numbers.

First, I compiled a list of the number of times that each playoff candidate has made the Super Rugby finals. I have excluded Super competitions prior to 1996. As the game went professional in 1996, I thought it was apt to only include finals appearances in the professional era. To do otherwise would have skewed the results.

I also compiled the number of games played in the finals, and each teams winning %. My list also includes championships won, and championship winning percentage, calculated from the number of times a team has appeared in the finals (not on games won). I have not included this year in my figures, as although the six teams have qualified, they are yet to play a finals game this year.

So, strap yourselves in, here we go!

finals.jpg


As we can see, the Crusaders are by far the most effective when it comes to the finals. Next cab off the rank is the Bulls. The Bulls have featured in the finals six times since 1996, and have won 6 of the 9 games they have played. An interesting stat is the 40% win percentage of the Reds. In win percentages of the finals contenders, the Reds have the third best winning percentage. This is also reflected in the number of championships won.

An interesting stat is that of all the teams that will feature in the finals this year, the Sharks have the most appearances behind the Crusaders. However, they are the second least effective percentage wise, only ahead of the Stormers.

- interesting fact!-

New Zealand is the only country to have had all of their teams feature in at least one grand final. The Blues have won the championship 3 times, the Crusaders 7 times. The Chiefs featured in the 2009 final, the Highlanders lost to the Crusaders in the 1999 final, and the Hurricanes lost to the Crusaders in the 2006 final.

Head to Head

This weekend the Crusaders will play the Bulls, and the Reds will play the Shorks. I cast an eye on the number of times these sides have gone head to head in the finals. I found some interesting results.

The following table shows the finals head to heads of the Crusaders and the Bulls:

Cruvbul.jpg



As you can see, the Crusaders have only one once against the Bulls in four finals encounters. Mind you, the three Bulls wins were in South Africa.

The Reds and the Sharks have faced each other once in the finals. That was in 1996. The game was played at Ballymore, and the Sharks emerged victorious.

What does this all mean?

Realistically, to me all of these stats don't mean a lot. In my opinion, the form teams at the moment are the Reds and Crusaders. However, finals rugby is a different beast. Past history is not going to win any team a game this weekend. It just makes for interesting (I hope) reading.It is going to be a hell of a ride. Stock up the beer fridge.
 

Enzedder

Frank Nicholson (4)
Realistically, to me all of these stats don't mean a lot.
Excellent - we agree. Some of those stats are from over ten years ago and reflect maybe the ability of the franchises to put together good squads on a consistent basis but little else.

I also think you have to include the Stormers in your form teams.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
I don't think the Stormers are a form team, sure they keep on winning but look at the margins, they can't score tries. The Rebels managed 3 against their defence without Beale/JOC (James O'Connor). I'd back any of the top 5 to beat them at Newlands atm.

The 2010-11 Stormers were much better than this lot, to do with injuries but not sure they're getting many back yet and they might be underdone.
 

The Red Baron

Chilla Wilson (44)
Excellent - we agree. Some of those stats are from over ten years ago and reflect maybe the ability of the franchises to put together good squads on a consistent basis but little else.

I also think you have to include the Stormers in your form teams.

Not sure how to tackle this comment. I am unsure of another way to determine the statistics of of our playoff contenders, other than doing an analysis of their playoff fortunes since the game went professional. Yes, a lot of those figures are from a bygone era, but I suppose that is the nature of a historical analysis. I'm glad you picked up on my final disclaimer though!

Further, I do not think that the Stormers have hit their straps. Therefore I cannot consider them as a form team. An in form Stormers team plays much, much better than what they are at the moment. Remember, it is just my opinion though.
 

tigerland12

John Thornett (49)
I honestly think a Reds vs Crusaders final is a possibility.

Crusaders are more dominant than the Bulls, especially at home, whilst QLD are on a roll and the Sharks aren't the same playing away from Durban.

Then as Qwerty said, Stormers are only winning by small margins against low sides, and just have not looked as good as they did at the start of the year. The Chiefs have lost two in a row both by failing to close out the match, not to mention that the Reds have had the wood on them in recent years.

So I think either Chiefs or Reds will play the Crusaders in the final.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Cant argue that the Stormers are not favourates for the finals. They have achieve more then previous years to top the log but have not been flashy by any means. From our perspective we do have a lot of positives going into the finals
like home games all the way as long as we keep winning
our gameplan has been perfectly for finals rugby
defense win finals.
Stormers made the finals in CC and SupeRugby now for three years with the current coaching staff and they will know what needs to be done if they learned from previous outings.

Being top of the log means sweet nothing and the Stormers WeePee supporters wont be satisfied if they dont see Silverware.

I do however feel the Stormers have freshen up with a new player cycle in the youngsters like Malherbe, Ginga, Carr, Kolisi, Etsebet. If the Stormers can play with the urgency they show earlier on tour, they will be pretty difficult to stop on Newlands, current form will count for sweet nothing on the day.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Our injuries look also good and if we can get Burger and Vermeulen in the semis you'll see atotally different Stormers team at home in front of 50,000 Newlands faithfulls.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
Yep, I think the stormers are clear favourites, with everyone else around the same. Mostly due to home ground advantage though, not because they are playing that much better than the other sides.
 

Bowside

Peter Johnson (47)
I think the stormers are rightful favourites due to their powerful defence, but I still they that they lack a decent enough halves combo to spark the attack.

They will win if they can get on top of other teams from the get go, but if say the chiefs, saders or reds were able to put a few points on them early and I could see the stormers falling apart as they try to chase the game.
 

The Red Baron

Chilla Wilson (44)
They say defence wins titles. While that is true, have a look at all the previous champions throughout the history of the comp. The title winning Blues, Crusaders and Reds teams had solid defensive structures, but their overall game was based on attack. However, the Bulls won 3 titles on the back of a rock solid defence, which allowed them to play a territory based game.

The Brumbies team that won 2 titles were interesting. I was tempted to say that they were the anti-Stormers, however that is probably not accurate. The Brumbies broke teams by playing a possession and retention oriented game, whereas the Stormers don't mind the other team having the ball. With the Stormers defensive system being so sound, I would like to see them focus on hammering teams by weight of possession. That would be a much scarier prospect than what they are at the moment.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Coetzee & kie got a lot of flack during the season for not going for the four try bonus points but stick to his guns and grind out wins all season. He achieved his first aim to get the top position with keep on winning. Was obvious in the match against the Rebels that the Stormers can easily get into second gear when needed. Pretty sure when the semi get here it will have to be a full trottle effort coming from the Stormers. Bekker finally start to dominate the lineouts, Etsebet will be fresh to add his energy , our scrum struggled but he realised we need Liebenberg to start with the youngsters and Fourie had a blinder as fetcher flanker. We have enough striking power at the backs. The Reds and Saders used the kicking game last year to beat us, with Joe P back that aint a problem anymore, so it will take a 80 minute full out effort to beat us at Newlands. I dont care who the opposition is, the bigger the better.
 

AngrySeahorse

Peter Sullivan (51)
My boys have been very up & down this year so I'm not looking past the Bulls right now. I voted the Chiefs would take it out & despite their form being a little patchy of late I'm still going to say they are the pony to bet on.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Semi Finals dates:
Super Rugby play-offs - Week Two:
Semifinal One:


Friday, July 27:

Chiefs v highest ranked Super Rugby qualifier
Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand
Kick off (19.35 local, 19.35 NZT, 17.35 NSW/ACT, 09.35 SAT, 07.35 GMT)

Semifinal Two:

Saturday, July 28:

Stormers v lowest ranked Super Rugby qualifier
Newlands Stadium, Cape Town, South Africa
Kick-off (17.05 local, 15.05 GMT, Sunday July 1 03.05 NZT, 01.05 NSW/ACT)
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Stormers have got to be the form team with all the inside running for the Final.

They got there by hard word and determination. With home advantage it will be a very good team that beats them to take the title.
 

crangs81

Larry Dwyer (12)
If the Reds and Crusaders win then who do they play in the semis? I would've thought the Chiefs play the Reds(2v3) and the Crusaders play the stormers(1v4) but i've been reading that the Crusaders and chiefs cant meet in the final which then means that the finals rankings are thrown out in the semis, doesn't it?
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
If the Reds and Crusaders win then who do they play in the semis? I would've thought the Chiefs play the Reds(2v3) and the Crusaders play the stormers(1v4) but i've been reading that the Crusaders and chiefs cant meet in the final which then means that the finals rankings are thrown out in the semis, doesn't it?
Crusaders is 4th on the log and will travel to Slaapstad, Reds to Hamilton.
 
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