The Run IN to the SEMIS

[Rugby Rat]

I'm reviving this thread.

Here we are with 2 to go. I've kicked the Force and the Blues out of contention, leaving 7 teams and 4 spots. I've added points differential as it will probably be relevant.

1 Hurricanes 39 (+100)
2 Chiefs 37 (+91)
3 Bulls 37 (+57)
4 Sharks 35 (+48)
5 Waratahs 32 (+20)
6 Crusaders 32 (+11)
7 Brumbies 32 (-13)

The run home:

Hurricanes - Chiefs (A) Reds (A)
Chiefs - Hurricanes (H) Brumbies (H)
Bulls - Cheetahs (H) Shorks (A)
Shorks - Waratahs (H) Bulls (H)
Waratahs - Shorks (A) Lions (A)
Crusaders - Reds (H) Blues (A)
Brumbies - Blues (H) Chiefs (A)

Realistically, I think only the Shorks could miss the top 4. Brumby fans will hope that the Bulls beat them in Durban. The only way the Tahs will get there is if they beat them next week. The chances of the Tahs losing to the Shorks but making the finals anyway are miniscule.

Given that one of the Chiefs and Canes will lose next week, the Bulls could go to the top of the table by smashing the Cheetahs.

In my opinion:

Hurricanes W W 1st
Bulls W W 2nd
Chiefs L W 3rd
Crusaders W W 4th
Shorks W L 5th
Waratahs L W 6th
Brumbies W L 7th

What's the record between the Cheetahs and the Bulls ? Have the Bulls been dominant in past games ?

The Sharks looked beatable last night. Simple errors by the Highlanders when in the Sharks 22 cost them the game.

 

[Blue]

I'm reviving this thread.

Here we are with 2 to go. I've kicked the Force and the Blues out of contention, leaving 7 teams and 4 spots. I've added points differential as it will probably be relevant.

1 Hurricanes 39 (+100)
2 Chiefs 37 (+91)
3 Bulls 37 (+57)
4 Sharks 35 (+48)
5 Waratahs 32 (+20)
6 Crusaders 32 (+11)
7 Brumbies 32 (-13)

The run home:

Hurricanes - Chiefs (A) Reds (A)
Chiefs - Hurricanes (H) Brumbies (H)
Bulls - Cheetahs (H) Shorks (A)
Shorks - Waratahs (H) Bulls (H)
Waratahs - Shorks (A) Lions (A)
Crusaders - Reds (H) Blues (A)
Brumbies - Blues (H) Chiefs (A)

Realistically, I think only the Shorks could miss the top 4. Brumby fans will hope that the Bulls beat them in Durban. The only way the Tahs will get there is if they beat them next week. The chances of the Tahs losing to the Shorks but making the finals anyway are miniscule.

Given that one of the Chiefs and Canes will lose next week, the Bulls could go to the top of the table by smashing the Cheetahs.

In my opinion:

Hurricanes W W 1st
Bulls W W 2nd
Chiefs L W 3rd
Crusaders W W 4th
Shorks W L 5th
Waratahs L W 6th
Brumbies W L 7th

What's the record between the Cheetahs and the Bulls ? Have the Bulls been dominant in past games ?

The Sharks looked beatable last night. Simple errors by the Highlanders when in the Sharks 22 cost them the game.

The only reason the Highlanders were in the game was the total lack of composure from the Sharks. The beat the highlanders up at scrum time, stole a ton of lineout ball and absolutely ruled the breakdown. Yet the Sharks made 25 handling errrrs, 15 of which happeded in the first 30 minutes, 3 with a 2 man overlap.

As against the Crusaders the Sharks had every opportunity to put the game away in the first fourty but could not produce simple passes.

They should have secured the bonus point by half time.

They can't play a simple structured passing game when it matters.

The Sharks will not win this comp without some sort of miracle.

The highlanders were beyond incompetent in that game.

 

[Gagger]

Well revived Scarfissimo and thorough work. May have to steal reprint that analysis on the front page.

Another way to put it though is that the Tahs still have their destiny in their own hands. Simply (!!) beat the Shawks next and NSW then actually has a point on the buggers and the beatable Lions left.

Similarly, if your prediction about the Canes beating the Chiefs holds, then the Brumbies will also have a last crack away against the Chiefs.

Both very tough, almost unwinnable, games. But still in the hunt!

The unfortunate thing could be how many points the Reds development XV give to the Saders!

 

[Blue]

Well revived Scarfissimo and thorough work. May have to steal reprint that analysis on the front page.

Another way to put it though is that the Tahs still have their destiny in their own hands. Simply (!!) beat the Shawks next and NSW then actually has a point on the buggers and the beatable Lions left.

Similarly, if your prediction about the Canes beating the Chiefs holds, then the Brumbies will also have a last crack away against the Chiefs.

Both very tough, almost unwinnable, games. But still in the hunt!

The unfortunate thing could be how many points the Reds development XV give to the Saders!

At this stage I am not so sure if the Sharks pose an almost unwinnable prospect. Something is seriously amiss with this team. Earlier on in the season they won a few games easily, but the slide started as early as round 4 or 5 where they somehow miraculously got themselves out of jail week after week. Their play has been riddled with errors.

If they continue to play the same way as they gave in the last two games, they are very beatable by a good defense, which the Tahs have.

They are playing a game plan which I don't associate with them traditionally. Players are obsessed with offloading. This is causing an incredible amount of errors.

If they revert to playing percentages, their pack will create more space. They are trying to play a high risk game plan in no space and its just not working. If it comes off it looks spectacular but it hardly ever does.

As for the Tahs, if they defend well, and get parity in the tight, they are in with a 50/50 chance in my book.

Oh and Pienaar back at 10 is going to make a difference for the Sharks. Steyn just has no decision making ability at 10 which has really hampered the Sharks.

 

[fatprop]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

 

[Blue]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

That will be a big problem. One thing that is working for the Sharks is the scrum. They monstered the highlanders and Smit is starting to look quite comfortable at 3.

 

[fatprop]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

That will be a big problem. One thing that is working for the Sharks is the scrum. They monstered the highlanders and Smit is starting to look quite comfortable at 3.

The scrum is one area I am not worried about against the Sharks; if we get our full front row on the field, the Tahs front row has not been bothered by the Sharks for a couple of seasons.

Last season the Tahs mullered them twice in a couple of weeks.

 

[Spook]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

That will be a big problem. One thing that is working for the Sharks is the scrum. They monstered the highlanders and Smit is starting to look quite comfortable at 3.

The scrum is one area I am not worried about against the Sharks; if we get our full front row on the field, the Tahs front row has not been bothered by the Sharks for a couple of seasons.

Last season the Tahs mullered them twice in a couple of weeks.

The sharks scrum will get done over by the Tahs. The Sharks loosies need to be contained.

 

[Harfish]

Hurricanes W W 1st
Bulls W W 2nd
Chiefs L W 3rd
Crusaders W W 4th
Shorks W L 5th
Waratahs L W 6th
Brumbies W L 7th

Interestingly enough, both of my mathematical models for predicting results are now picking these teams as top six in this order. The only difference between them now is one has the Blues beating the Brumbies this week. It's the less accurate of the two, but it predicts the more upsets correctly.

 

[Blue]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

That will be a big problem. One thing that is working for the Sharks is the scrum. They monstered the highlanders and Smit is starting to look quite comfortable at 3.

The scrum is one area I am not worried about against the Sharks; if we get our full front row on the field, the Tahs front row has not been bothered by the Sharks for a couple of seasons.

Last season the Tahs mullered them twice in a couple of weeks.

I can't recall games other than last year's semi in Sydney where yes, the Sharks struggled.

The Sharks scrum has improved week after week. Without Nau the Tahs will struggle. With him it will be about dead even I'd say, based on what I've seen this season.

 

[Rugby Rat]

Nau is in doubt for the Sharks game with an ankle injury.

The Tahs have no chance if Fitzpatrick is the starting hooker, and I have no idea who would be the back up, Palmer? of someone from Sydney club?

That will be a big problem. One thing that is working for the Sharks is the scrum. They monstered the highlanders and Smit is starting to look quite comfortable at 3.

The Highlanders came back in the second half. Their front row would have to be the fittest in the comp.
As for the errors... Big body contact. Highlanders do that very well.

 

[Scarfman]

Hurricanes W W 1st
Bulls W W 2nd
Chiefs L W 3rd
Crusaders W W 4th
Shorks W L 5th
Waratahs L W 6th
Brumbies W L 7th

Interestingly enough, both of my mathematical models for predicting results are now picking these teams as top six in this order. The only difference between them now is one has the Blues beating the Brumbies this week. It's the less accurate of the two, but it predicts the more upsets correctly.

And I'll tell you what - the Crusaders won't mind having a crack at the Hurricanes in Welly. It beats travelling to the republic.

 

[PaarlBok]

There are two important games left. The Chiefs vs Canes at home. I'll bet on the Chiefs. Then the Sharks vs Brutes one. My money will be on the Brutes to take that one.

Doc how will this outcomes make your table look?

 

[Scarfman]

Well, at least the permutations are getting simpler. Maybe not for the Tahs, though.

1. Bulls (+66) 42
2. Chiefs (+99) 41
3. Hurricanes (+92) 39
4. Crusaders (+31) 37
5. Brumbies (+9) 37
6. Shorks (+44) 36
7. Waratahs (+24) 36

Final Round:

Bulls - Shorks (A)
Chiefs - Brumbies (H)
Hurricanes - Reds (A)
Crusaders - Blues (A)
Brumbies - Chiefs (A)
Shorks - Bulls (H)
Waratahs - Lions (A)

Top 4 looking settled. Somebody want to figure out how my team can make the finals?

 

[cyclopath]

Easy Scarfy - the Reds and/or the Blues need to pull something out of their arses with the Bulls and the Chiefs winning. Can't see the Reds doing it, who knows with the Blues. If I were the Chiefs I would not be taking the Brumbies for granted either.
Top 4 likely to stay top 4

 

[fatprop]

The Bulls will be hard to beat at home.

Tahs should end up 5th

The Chiefs need 5 points (the Brumbies are in for a scary one), so it is up to the Sharks to keep the Bulls without a bonus point

 

[Scarfman]

WARATAHS

Well, the Tahs can forget about the Bulls and Chiefs.

Let's assume the Tahs get 4 points out of the Lions.

Of the teams immediately above, if 3 lose, we're in.
Hurricanes - Reds (A)
Crusaders - Blues (A)
Brumbies - Chiefs (A)
Shorks - Bulls (H)

Getting 3 losses there is certainly possible, but not likely. So, we're going to need 5 points out of the game with Lions. If we do, then we might be able to get ahead of the Crusaders. We're only 7 points behind them in points difference, so we should take care of that. But the Crusaders musn't get 4 tries or the Tahs are fucked again.

Not a good look all around for the Tahs.

BRUMBIES

Things aren't that much better for the Brums. First, they've got to beat the Chiefs in New Zealand. but if the Crusaders beat the Blues, then the Brumbies are going to have to score 4 tries and not let the Chiefs within 7. As difficult as that is, at least they have their finals chances in their own hands.

 

[steiner]

Fair chance we're going to be in the same position we were a few years back where a side (the Chiefs or Crusaders) on equal points with another team will make the semis on for and against despite having less wins than that team. It amazes me that they haven't changed this rule. Seems like such an obvious thing to do.

 

[steiner]

Most possible scenario for the Tahs to make it:

Tahs bonus point win
Bulls beat Sharks or Sharks win without bonus point
Blues beat Crusaders or Crusaders win without bonus point (but not by much)
Chiefs beat Brumbies or Brumbies win without bonus point

Not that impossible.

 

[PaarlBok]

Tahs bonus point

Wont happen

Bulls beat Sharks or Sharks win without bonus point

Brutes will beat them, they nowhere near the same team that won the CC

Blues beat Crusaders or Crusaders win without bonus point (but not by much)

Impossible

Chiefs beat Brumbies or Brumbies win without bonus point

Chiefs will clubber the Brumbies