The run home: the comp gets serious

[Lindommer]

An even better shot for the Bulls, Scotty, would be for the Saders to scrape into 4 and have to turn around and fly back over the Indian Ocean. They'd be dog's meat by the time they got to Pretoria, the Bulls could run their reserves on and still beat them.

 

[PaarlBok]

Dont think the Brutes will want to play that Saders. The Saders have been there so many times in the semis and winning in the past. They play first this weekend and their first focus will be to get next week to Newlands not needed to worry about the Stormers taking that nr 1 spot. They'll want nothing less then a five pointer against the Saders.

Ditto Stormers, they'll know exactly what they need to do playing the last game of the weekend.

 

[Ash]

I actually agree with Scotty - best case for Bulls would be 1. Bulls, 2. Australasian team, 3. Stormers, 4. Crusaders/Australasian team

That way they take a travelling team for the final. Best case would be Stormers winning - thus Stormers fly over jet lagged, win, then fly back and get jet lagged again. Lots of travel. Crusaders at 4 would be ideal as they fly over for 2 games, fly back for 1 game, then fly over again for the semi-final. Too much travel for any team to keep performaing at the top of their game.

 

[Groucho]

I have no idea who is going to get through,

The Canes, Saders, Reds, Tahs & Brumbies could all only win one or none of their next two matches

The Stormers could also win either one or none of their next two matches, against the Sharks and Bulls. They are not nearly as locked into second place as people are suggesitng.

 

[Reddy!]

Helps that they are a win ahead of the pack though.

 

[Blue]

I have no idea who is going to get through,

The Canes, Saders, Reds, Tahs & Brumbies could all only win one or none of their next two matches

The Stormers could also win either one or none of their next two matches, against the Sharks and Bulls. They are not nearly as locked into second place as people are suggesitng.

Right now I would class the Sharks beatign the Stormers a pretty big upset. They have lost JP Pietersen, lock Muller and Bismarck du Plessis. Shitfest it will be but the Stormers should win it.

 

[PaarlBok]

Helps that they are a win ahead of the pack though.

plus the points difference (+172, Saders 80, Reds 79, Tahs 54, Brumbies 57, Canes 28), if the others want to get past us they'll have to get a xtra bonuspoint.

A five pointer against the Sharks should settle a home semi.

 

[rustycruiser]

Dont think the Brutes will want to play that Saders. The Saders have been there so many times in the semis and winning in the past. They play first this weekend and their first focus will be to get next week to Newlands not needed to worry about the Stormers taking that nr 1 spot. They'll want nothing less then a five pointer against the Saders.

Ditto Stormers, they'll know exactly what they need to do playing the last game of the weekend.

Paarl, in 2007 and 2009 the Bulls beat the Crusaders in the semis, before winning the whole comp. I think they are over any sort of Sader/Semi bogey.

 

[Langthorne]

Once we get to the finals I think a different style of play will be viable - the stifling, defensive style. Last season I thought the Tahs ended up playing in a way that could get them past anyone, but last weekend really disturbed me when it comes to this year. They could of course end up 5th again.

The Reds' injuries are a big worry, but they have managed miracles this season. Even so, I think they will lose to the Canes (I'd prefer they won). They can still make the finals by beating the Highlanders (and other results go their way).

The Brumbies have every chance of beating the Highlanders this week, and should then be able to control their destiny against the Crusaders

The Waratahs looked very bad last week. If they can beat the Chiefs (not at all certain), I think they will beat the Canes and make the finals.

I find it hard to imagine the Bulls and Stormers not fighting out top position in the last round.

 

[matty_k]

The Waratahs looked very bad last week. If they can beat the Chiefs (not at all certain), I think they will beat the Canes and make the finals.

I think it will also depend on how they beat the Chiefs. They need to dominate them around the park and in the forwards in particular.

 

[Blue]

The Waratahs looked very bad last week. If they can beat the Chiefs (not at all certain), I think they will beat the Canes and make the finals.

I think it will also depend on how they beat the Chiefs. They need to dominate them around the park and in the forwards in particular.

Don't get that logic. The Canes belted the Chiefs. I think the Canes are the team to worry about.

 

[HG]

The Waratahs looked very bad last week. If they can beat the Chiefs (not at all certain), I think they will beat the Canes and make the finals.

I think it will also depend on how they beat the Chiefs. They need to dominate them around the park and in the forwards in particular.

Don't get that logic. The Canes belted the Chiefs. I think the Canes are the team to worry about.

I watched that game and I wouldn't say they belted the Chiefs. In fact the Chiefs had a good run at them but let the game slip in the second half.

 

[PaarlBok]

Cant see the Tahs struggling against both that teams , you need to play a Tahish game against them, play within your structure, keep it tight and force them into mistakes with good defense.

 

[Langthorne]

Blue - my thinking is not that the Chiefs are better than the Canes, therefore beating the Chiefs would mean they should beat the Canes (BTW the Chiefs-Canes match could easily have gone the other way if that penalty went over, so not really a thrashing there). I was thinking that if the Waratahs can get themselves together away against the Chiefs then they will have momentum and the home advantage to see them through the Canes match. Lose in Hamilton and that may well be it from a confidence perspective (let alone the competition table).

 

[PaarlBok]

All depend if the Canes still have a change really. They'r a unpredictable lot and a different animal if they still have a sniff.

 

[Blue]

Fair enough Langthorne but I think becuase of the way the Tahs play they will be able to stranlge the Chafes but not so easily the Canes.

 

[Langthorne]

Fair enough Langthorne but I think becuase of the way the Tahs play they will be able to stranlge the Chafes but not so easily the Canes.

That is the worry.


So Bulls 1st, home semi, and a likely final in Pretoria - very bad news for everyone else.

Stormers will make the 4, but if they don't beat the Bulls they'll need bonus points to avoid playing them again at Loftus the following week.

The other positions will likely be filled by the winner of Tahs V Canes and Crusaders V Brumbies.

There are a couple of other strange possible scenarios - like the Tahs losing but getting a couple of bonus points, Reds winning by about 200, Crusaders winning with no bonus points, and the Stormers losing and getting no bonus points.

The important one for me is Tahs win = play in the semis. that would be a good start, but the Canes are no pushover.

 

[Jethro Tah]

The top 6 teams playing each other in the final round to determine who plays in the finals and 2 teams per country - very well scripted SANZAR!

 

[Blue]

The Stormes should beat the Bulls in Cape Town really. They will be pissed off.

The Bulls play their semi (and final if they win) in Soweto. Loftus is now poofball territory.

Whilst it is obviously a setback for them to not be at Loftus, it is obviously alien territory for any overseas visitors (trust me). In a way it is a wonderful occasion - a bid rugby game being played in Soweto.

I'd love to go back 20 years in Pretoria and see the reaction if people were told that "Vilk, oor twintig jaar speel die Bulle 'n groot game in Soweto." ("My people, in twenty years time the Bulls will play a big game in Soweto").

I think its a great thing.

 

[Bruce Ross]

Could the Stormers miss the semis?

With only one round remaining in the 2010 Super 14 there is still considerable uncertainty about three of the semi-final positions. The Bulls are certain to finish on top but there are five teams vying for the remaining three positions. Intriguingly each of these teams has to play another finals contender. The three relevant games are: Crusaders vs. Brumbies at Christchurch; Waratahs vs. Hurricanes at Sydney; and Stormers vs. Bulls at Cape Town.

The current competition points tally and points for-and-against difference for the five teams are:

Stormers 39 166
Waratahs 38 81
Brumbies 37 85
Hurricanes 37 51
Crusaders 36 75

The Reds are virtually no possibility of making the four. Mathematically there is only one way they could make it. They would have to win with a bonus point and the Stormers lose without any bonus points, plus they would have to make up the 90 points difference advantage that the Stormers hold over them.

The most likely semi-finalists are the Bulls, Stormers and the winners of the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games. However both the Stormers if they lose and Crusaders even if they win are still vulnerable to a losing Waratahs sneaking past them. Not a likely scenario but it is still in their interests for the Waratahs to win.

If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points they will finish on 40 points. If the Stormers lose without earning a bonus point they will finish on 39 and thus miss out on the semis given that the Hurricanes and the winners of Brumbies-Crusaders will each finish on at least 40 points.

If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points and the Crusaders win without a bonus point they will both finish on 40. At present the Waratahs hold a six-point advantage over the Crusaders in terms of points difference, so if both the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games had very tight finishes, the Waratahs could just nudge out the Crusaders.

In the semi-finals the Bulls will have a home game against the fourth finishing team, while the second finishing team will have a home game against the third finishing team.

The Stormers just need to beat the Bulls to lock in second place, but they should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points in case they themselves lose.

The Waratahs need to win to secure their place, but will be hoping that both the Stormers and Brumbies lose so that they are assured of second place and a home semi.

The Brumbies are out unless they win, but could reach second spot if they have a bonus point win and the Stormers lose so long as the Waratahs don't have a bonus point win.

The Hurricanes are in if they win but out if they lose.

The Crusaders are out if they lose but at some risk of missing out even if they win. They should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points.