The run home: the comp gets serious

[PaarlBok]

You would have to say that the loser of the Saders vs Stormers match are a very real chance of missing out on the top 4. It is going to be a cracker game.

I wonder of the Stormers and Bulls will ask the Sharks to do the right thing by them and roll over? Otherwise the Sharks could really throw a spanner in the SA teams home finals probability.

According to Biffs calculations the need two wins from here (Reds,Stormers & Crusaders). The Stormers have a added bonus in superior points differencal, so they wont be boddered that much about bonus points.

The Tahs need a bonuspoint plus two wins I geuss. Bulls can drop two out of three and still make the semis.

Regarding the Sharks rolling over, we will beg them but they wont listen. Still cant see them beating the Brutes or Stormers with that shitty backline they got.

 

[Scotty]

Yep, they need 2 from three.

So if the Saders lose, they have to beat both the Bulls and Brumbies.

If the Stormers lose they have to beat both the Bulls and Sharks.

Not a position that either team would like to be in.

 

[PaarlBok]

Yep, they need 2 from three.

So if the Saders lose, they have to beat both the Bulls and Brumbies.

If the Stormers lose they have to beat both the Bulls and Sharks.

Not a position that either team would like to be in.

Yep not ideal but I have seen lots of strange things happened over the years at this stage of the competition. The scalp I'd love to see the Stormers take is the Crusaders. It will be a historical win for us, first time a SA team doing the Kiwi S14 slam.

 

[Groucho]

If the Brumbies can beat the Reds with a bonus point and the Sharks beat the Bulls then the top of the table is going to get quite congested, e.g. something along the lines of:

Bulls 39
Stormers 39
Tahs 38
Reds 34
Saders 34
Brumbies 32

In that scenario the Brumbies are still right in it.

 

[Ash]

Can't see the Bulls not finishing top of the table as I think they will beat the Stormers in the last round.

Most in danger of missing the top 4 is the Crusaders, as I think they will lose their two tour matches and then struggle against the Brumbies in Canberra while fighting jet lag. Can't see the Crusaders winning more than 1 from the last three.

If the Reds win 2 of their last 3, then they will be in the finals. I think the Reds will beat the Highlanders, but they have two really challenging games against the Brumbies and Canes. They can win all three, but it will be a tough ask. Sadly (and I'm a Reds supporter), I can see the Reds only winning one and not making it. But I really really hope I am wrong.

The Sharks are the big question mark. Good forward pack who can upset any team on their day and they are in form. Big threat to the two top SA sides. I can see the Sharks maybe upsetting the Stormers but not the Bulls.

I think that Stormers should definately beat the Crusaders, and 60/40 they'll do the Sharks. Think they'll lose to the Bulls.

The Tahs have the best run in of any in the top 5 but are erratic and fighting a few injuries. If they are not on their best vs the Chiefs and Canes they could lose one or two.

The only thing I am relatively sure on is that the Bulls will finish top, especially as they only need to win 2 from 3 from here. The rest of the run home is littered with potholes. Rather exciting, really.

 

[PaarlBok]

Your overrating the Brutes Ash, no way they will beat the Stormers on Newlands. We should have beaten them last year in the semi and the Stormers are a much improved team from that semi. If it was in the Ring , it would have been different , not Newlands.

 

[meatsack]

I made a calculator this arvo, may have some bugs and it only updates the points columns and the +/- column.

http://rugbybreakdown.com/wp/s142010/index.html

Might do some more work on it later, but time to watch the game.

 

[PaarlBok]

The run home for the remaining finals contenders and the four spoilers (Brumbies, Canes, Sharks and Chiefs) is as follows:


Bulls Sharks/SADERS/STORMERS
Stormers SADERS/Sharks/BULLS
Saders STORMERS/BULLS/Ponies
Reds Ponies/Canes/Clan
Tahs Clan/Chiefs/Canes
Brumbies REDS/Clan/SADERS
Canes Chiefs/REDS/TAHS
Sharks BULLS/STORMERS/Force
Chiefs Canes/TAHS/Blues


The Saders must've kissed a Chinaman to be lumbered with the draw from hell: they have to cross the Indian Ocean twice in the space of 15 days AND play the top two sides. If they, by chance, win one of those games they may scrape into the finals, only to turn around and fly back to RSA. That'd mean three trips across the Indian Ocean in 22 days. Impossible. 2010 won't be the year of the Crusader.

My (current) prediction: Stormers, Bulls, Tahs and Reds, in that order.

Legend: home games in black, away games in red, finals contenders in CAPITALS.

Think Lind have the Tahs now to high up. They will be dead safe in 5th after this round and the top4 is safe for the moment.

 

[Biffo]

Did I warn you all that some teams near the bottom would roll some top teams and stuff up some calculations?

 

[DPK]

Did I warn you all that some teams near the bottom would roll some top teams and stuff up some calculations?

Never, ever happened before...

 

[TOCC]

its absolutely absurd to think that a bottom team would roll a top team..

 

[Biffo]

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

hhhmmmmmm

 

[DPK]

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

hhhmmmmmm

Breaking some new ground there, Copernicus...

 

[Hawko]

The run home for the remaining finals contenders and the four spoilers (Brumbies, Canes, Sharks and Chiefs) is as follows:


Bulls Sharks/SADERS/STORMERS
Stormers SADERS/Sharks/BULLS
Saders STORMERS/BULLS/Ponies
Reds Ponies/Canes/Clan
Tahs Clan/Chiefs/Canes
Brumbies REDS/Clan/SADERS
Canes Chiefs/REDS/TAHS
Sharks BULLS/STORMERS/Force
Chiefs Canes/TAHS/Blues


The Saders must've kissed a Chinaman to be lumbered with the draw from hell: they have to cross the Indian Ocean twice in the space of 15 days AND play the top two sides. If they, by chance, win one of those games they may scrape into the finals, only to turn around and fly back to RSA. That'd mean three trips across the Indian Ocean in 22 days. Impossible. 2010 won't be the year of the Crusader.

My (current) prediction: Stormers, Bulls, Tahs and Reds, in that order.

Legend: home games in black, away games in red, finals contenders in CAPITALS.

Think Lind have the Tahs now to high up. They will be dead safe in 5th after this round and the top4 is safe for the moment.

Maybe the Tahs will make the four, but they'll be smashed in the semi's in SA.

 

[Reddy!]

Tahs are Goonneeee

 

[Nusadan]

Tahs are Goonneeee

Sadly, I agree...should have switched allegiance to the Reds whilst living in Noosa for seven years til two seasons ago...

 

[Langthorne]

Tahs are Goonneeee

Sadly, I agree...should have switched allegiance to the Reds whilst living in Noosa for seven years til two seasons ago...

Based on their performance this week, I would agree, but based on the table and the fixtures remaining...they are in 5th position, one point behind the Crusaders (who have to play the Bulls and Brumbies)...they would need to win the next two games, but they are not really gone yet.

 

[Nusadan]

Tahs are Goonneeee

Sadly, I agree...should have switched allegiance to the Reds whilst living in Noosa for seven years til two seasons ago...

Based on their performance this week, I would agree, but based on the table and the fixtures remaining...they are in 5th position, one point behind the Crusaders (who have to play the Bulls and Brumbies)...they would need to win the next two games, but they are not really gone yet.

Still, if they do make the semis, it'll be against the Bulls, and you know what will happen...so I'd rather them to miss out completely than to suffer yet more agonies....

 

[chief]

I think the Tahs still can defininetly make it. Crusaders just got trashed tonight by the Stormers, and it only gets harder for them with facing the Sharks and the Bulls. If Tahs win the next two games, with bonus points, then I think the Tahs will come in 4th.

 

[Godfrey]

I think the Tahs will still scrape into 4th. The Crusaders might win against the Sharks but it is doubtful. Bulls Reds Stormers Tahs is something I'd really like to see as the top 4, and is not altogether unlikely.