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The run home: the comp gets serious

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RugbyReg

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Reds:
Current position: Fourth (last week - fourth)
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W L W W W
Remaining fixtures:
1 May: v Brumbies, away
7 May: v Hurricanes, away
15 May: v Highlanders, home

eeek.
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Noddy said:
Reds:
Current position: Fourth (last week - fourth)
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W L W W W
Remaining fixtures:
1 May: v Brumbies, away
7 May: v Hurricanes, away
15 May: v Highlanders, home

eeek.

Mathematically speaking I guess, though I haven't done the numbers. Won't happen, they look good for the four.
 

matty_k

Peter Johnson (47)
That is what all the top five teams have as their best or worst. So I wouldn't be too concerned.
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
That was the same scenario for the Bulls, Saders, Stormers and Tahs. They also pointed out the Chiefs, Blues and Sharks could top the log??? Don't you love stats? ;)
 

matty_k

Peter Johnson (47)
Basically it is a situation of If team A wins all their games and the rest lose but it is an interesting stat to watch as the weeks go on.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
To be honest as a Stormers supporter I am just glad they still have their destiny in their own hands at this stage of the S14 marathon. They have come very close two years ago and missed out on a single point.

Hope they'll go in this last three rounds, forget about bonus points and just win them all. If they cant win the Crusaders and Brutes at home, I cant see them worthy of a semi spot anyway. In a sense I am glad they play the top lot right now, cant ask for better preparations for the knock out matches.

Its "uithaal en wys", do or die time for them.
 

Pfitzy

Nathan Sharpe (72)
PaarlBok said:
I am glad they play the top lot right now, cant ask for better preparations for the knock out matches.

Exactly Oom - you need to have your hardest matches right before it gets serious or you'll get picked off.
 
F

feed_me

Guest
For anyone trying to work out how the table will look after the regular season, you might find this spreadsheet handy. It allows you to quickly put in your expected results, and recalculate the competition table.
 

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  • s14 run home.xls
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PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
NTA said:
PaarlBok said:
I am glad they play the top lot right now, cant ask for better preparations for the knock out matches.

Exactly Oom - you need to have your hardest matches right before it gets serious or you'll get picked off.
Yep that help us won the last World Cup, having Samoa and England in our pool.

Feed_me thanks for the spreadsheet, :thumb
 
T

TOCC

Guest
Reds played Lions and Cheetahs in South Africa, im sure if it had of been in Australia we could have seen a bigger blowout like the NSW game
 

Blue

Andrew Slack (58)
TOCC said:
Reds played Lions and Cheetahs in South Africa, im sure if it had of been in Australia we could have seen a bigger blowout like the NSW game

And if the played the Bulls and Stormers in SA they would have lost :fishing
 

Sully

Tim Horan (67)
Staff member
Blue said:
TOCC said:
Reds played Lions and Cheetahs in South Africa, im sure if it had of been in Australia we could have seen a bigger blowout like the NSW game

And if the played the Bulls and Stormers in SA they would have lost :fishing
:'(
 
T

TOCC

Guest
Blue said:
TOCC said:
Reds played Lions and Cheetahs in South Africa, im sure if it had of been in Australia we could have seen a bigger blowout like the NSW game

And if the played the Bulls and Stormers in SA they would have lost :fishing

yes i considered that as well
 

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
Eleven weeks down three to go. The finals contenders now form a group of five: Bulls, Stormers, Saders, Reds and Tahs. The Brumbies and Canes are within striking distance but, realistically, they aren't playing well enough to bother the contenders. Even if the Ponies win this week they could still be three points out of the four. The Sharks and Chiefs have been consigned to spoiling roles. For me the Chiefs have been the disappointment of the 2010 season: 2009 finalist but haven't won a game in Hamilton this year. They've had one home win, at Mt Maunganui in round 8, and that was against the lowly Clan! Unforgiveable. Add this to an unbelievably easy back end of the season with a bye in round 6 followed by a short trip to Canberra and then from rounds 8 to 14 they don't leave the North Island. Seven straight weeks sleeping at home. A very poor effort here, Tribe. The other underperforming team are the Blues, but I suppose they are somewhat consistent with their WLWLWL routine. The mathematical chances of the Blues, Sharks and Chiefs are now in the realm of dreaming.

The run home for the remaining finals contenders and the four spoilers (Brumbies, Canes, Sharks and Chiefs) is as follows:


Bulls Sharks/SADERS/STORMERS
Stormers SADERS/Sharks/BULLS
Saders STORMERS/BULLS/Ponies
Reds Ponies/Canes/Clan
Tahs Clan/Chiefs/Canes
Brumbies REDS/Clan/SADERS
Canes Chiefs/REDS/TAHS
Sharks BULLS/STORMERS/Force
Chiefs Canes/TAHS/Blues


The Saders must've kissed a Chinaman to be lumbered with the draw from hell: they have to cross the Indian Ocean twice in the space of 15 days AND play the top two sides. If they, by chance, win one of those games they may scrape into the finals, only to turn around and fly back to RSA. That'd mean three trips across the Indian Ocean in 22 days. Impossible. 2010 won't be the year of the Crusader.

My (current) prediction: Stormers, Bulls, Tahs and Reds, in that order.

Legend: home games in black, away games in red, finals contenders in CAPITALS.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
Fair prediction, Lindommer. Reds will likely drop one of these games (hopefully only one), so the Tahs should/could leapfrog them. It will be very interesting to see how the Saders vs Stormers vs Bulls battles pan out.

The average points for each countries super teams looks like this:

Oz 27.0
NZ 24.6
SA 22.8

Strange how SA team average can be a full win lower than Oz team average when they have the top two teams! Highlights how poor the Cheetahs and Lions are.
 

Reddy!

Bob Davidson (42)
Lindommer, while I agree with most of the points you make, I'm still not sold on the Stormers finishing top of the comp. Some are calling them the best team in the competition, but it's only since recently that they have come up against some of the real contenders in the Reds, who they lost to. Remember they also lost to the Force. Now they have to come up against the Saders and Bulls, granted they are at home, but they aren't easy matches, and given the opposition the Stormers have played so far, you can't say that they will definitely win those. And then they also come up against the Sharks away from home who have begun to find some form and could probably beat any team in the comp on their day, especially at home.

So, if the Stormers come out of the next 3 matches unscarved then I'll give it to you, you were right. But until then I am still skeptical.

I think the Tahs are the smokey to finish top, they just need to hang on this weekend and wait for the return of Ben Robinson.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
You would have to say that the loser of the Saders vs Stormers match are a very real chance of missing out on the top 4. It is going to be a cracker game.

I wonder of the Stormers and Bulls will ask the Sharks to do the right thing by them and roll over? Otherwise the Sharks could really throw a spanner in the SA teams home finals probability.
 

Reddy!

Bob Davidson (42)
Yep agreed. The Sharks position on the ladder really doesn't do justice in illustrating the trouble they are going to cause their fellow country men. And as we all know, local derbies are intense.

So, from an Australian perspective, I hope those 3 games are an absolute blood bath :thumb
 
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