The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Hawko]

My predictions (wins underlined):

Crusaders (55 points) Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Sharks (53 points) Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Waratahs (53 points)Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds

Western Force (46 points) Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Highlanders (46 points) Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Brumbies (45 points) Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Chiefs (45 points) Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Bulls (43 points) Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Hurricanes (42 points) Blues, Saders,Chiefs, bye
Maybe I am being a bit too hopeful. What is certain from here on: All teams apart from the Sharks need two wins from their last three or four games to make the finals. The Bulls need all 3.

That's as good a forecast as you'll get. But this has been such a crazy year for tipping that you could make a case for results that tip that table on its head. Nothing is set in stone yet.

The Sharks could lose both Stormers matches, not a ridiculous suggestion given that the Stormers are on the up, and therefore lose a precious home semi. Two weeks ago I thought that the Crusaders and Blues would do for them and look at how that turned out!

Plenty of room for daydreaming still, its what makes life fun!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

IF the Shorks lose again it'll be in CT not Durban so #1 for them.

This week I'm going with Brumbies, Chiefs & my lot to win at home, Clan & 'canes away, so the table looks like this going into the break:

1. Sharks 48 points & 11 wins
2. Crusaders 41 & 9
3. Waratahs 40 & 8
4. Hurricanes 41 & 8
5. Highlanders 40 & 8
6. Brumbies 39 & 9
7. Chiefs 39 & 7
8. Force 37 & 8

Brumbies & 'canes will have played an extra game so likely to be scrapping for 6th after the resumption, I'm still picking the Force for 4th with 'tahs & my lot 2nd & 3rd.

 

[Lindommer]

Bloody useless Blues, THAT'S why you're not going to play in the finals!

What a weekend, leaving the table jammed up with one win between the Saders (37) at 3rd and the Bulls (33) on 9th. Putting the Sharks aside for a moment (there's no doubt they're going to finish in the top 2) the teams that've played 13 (the Canes, Ponies and Bulls) are starting to run out of games to garner points. That was a vital win by the Bulls on the weekend but I still can't see them leap-frogging three teams to make the finals, two of whom (Chiefs and the Clan) have a game in hand over them.

To keep in mind the closeness of this year's table: the Tahs have gone form 8th to 2nd in two weeks while last year's champs, the Chiefs, have gone the other way from 2nd to 8th. And the Ponies've gone from 2nd to 7th on one week! It's a squeaky-bum comp this year. There are still seven intra-NZ fixtures left, God knows who of that lot're going to progress.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Taking @Lindommers analysis one step further, for comparison here is the final standings at the end of last years Home and Away competition:
1. Chiefs
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Crusaders
5. Reds
6. Cheetahs
7. Stormers
8. Sharks
9. Waratahs
10. Blues
11. Hurricanes
12. Rebels
13. Force
14. Highlanders
15. Kings

How things have changed in 12 months?

 

[Hawko]

Well, the Stormers have done us a huge favour, and away too. The Sharks will be dreading their last round when away to their weekend conquerors. Unless injuries hit though you would suspect that they would get up purely based on desperation.

Although you'd think that the Waratahs and Crusaders will go 1,2 both teams have got some really difficult matches to come. Us spectators have got three weeks to let our blood pressure subside before it all ramps up unbearably again.

The Tahs have it all in their own hands. If we can maintain our Chiefs form I think we'll get three wins and at least one bonus point. That, I think keeps us on top even if the Crusaders get three bonus points, which is not likely. The hardest game will be the Brumbies, I wish it was at the SFS and not Homebush.

 

[RedsHappy]

Well, the Stormers have done us a huge favour, and away too. The Sharks will be dreading their last round when away to their weekend conquerors. Unless injuries hit though you would suspect that they would get up purely based on desperation.

Although you'd think that the Waratahs and Crusaders will go 1,2 both teams have got some really difficult matches to come. Us spectators have got three weeks to let our blood pressure subside before it all ramps up unbearably again.

The Tahs have it all in their own hands. If we can maintain our Chiefs form I think we'll get three wins and at least one bonus point. That, I think keeps us on top even if the Crusaders get three bonus points, which is not likely. The hardest game will be the Brumbies, I wish it was at the SFS and not Homebush.

Brumbies, like Sharks at Newlands, will be desperate but far more cracks and fissures appearing in their late season game than is the case for the Tahs whose game is now markedly strengthening. And note: Lilo's kicking in disarray, White's better but not entirely consistent, Mogg's kicking (or even inclusion) unknown at this stage. Kicking quality could be the decider between these two teams in this particular match.

 

[Lindommer]

Version 1.6.​

​

16 rounds gone, 3 to go. Table and future fixtures:​

​

Sharks (45 points/played 14) Cheetahs, Stormers​

Waratahs (43/13) Ponies, Clan, Reds​

Crusaders (41/13) Canes, Blues, Clan​

Brumbies (40/14) Tahs, bye, Force​

Highlanders (38/13) Chiefs, Tahs, Saders​

Hurricanes (37/14) Saders, Chiefs, bye​

Western Force (36/13) Blues, Reds, Ponies​

Chiefs (35/13) Clan, Canes, Blues​

Bulls (32/14) Stormers, Rebels​

Blues (31/13) Force, Saders, Chiefs​

​

​

What a weekend! Losses to the Clan, Canes, Chiefs, Force and Bulls puts their finals' ambitions in some jeopardy, while the Sharks loss means they could miss out on a top 2 spot. Six out of the top 10 teams losing on one weekend, amazing (although two matches were against a fellow finals contender). The Ponies, Canes and Bulls, all with only two matches left, must be very nervous. I wrote the Bulls off some time ago as they've been one match in front of the other finals' contenders since the halfway mark and a few spots further down the ladder; the Lions loss has effectively ended their finals quest, there'd have to be some sort of complicated miracle for the Bulls (or the Blues) to reach sixth spot.​

​

The potential finalists:​

​

Sharks. Thank God Jakeball has finally been exposed. And beaten. On one hand I have some sympathy for the Shorks with injuries to key players, but every team has injuries and they have to cope to succeed. The guppies did very well winning three out of four matches on tour, probably better than anyone, including themselves, expected. One can only presume Jake & Co were eyeing off the #1 spot and pencilling in finals dates at ABSA/Growthpoint/Kings Park. Did they relax back in Durban? Did they underestimate the rested Stormers? Or were they buggered from their recent travels? Watched a replay today and I was gobsmacked how much ball was put up in the air (by both sides) when the match was on the line on the last 10 minutes. Hasn't Saffer rugby realised ball-in-hand is priceless in the modern game?​

Waratahs. Sometimes there's a match which simply has to be won for a team to go on to bigger things, for me that was the Tahs match at the Chiefs. First win in EnZed for four years; beat the current champs; puts the destiny of the Tahs' final spot in their hands, etc. After travelling to Melbourne to watch last week's win I thought the Tahs were starting to run into some rich form at the right time of the season, and they carried it on in New Plemeth. And isn't it nice to watch? Aggressive running, quick rucks, lovely interchanges in the backs, and NO DROPPED BALL! I should add brutal defence, the only way through for the Chiefs was grubbered ball. On the table the Tahs have the best defence and the best for/against, a top spot is now theirs to lose.​

Crusaders. Typical Saders, coming home with a wet sail. Like the Tahs a top 2 spot is entirely up to them. TBH I fear them in a finals match.​

Brumbies. Only two matches left, one a whopper against the Tahs in Sydney. Squeaky-bum time for the Ponies, about sixth at best looks like their destiny.​

Highlanders. The Clan had the worst travel schedule in the second half of the comp, but losses to the Saders at home and against one of the also-rans (Reds) certainly hasn't helped their finals' aspirations. They have two away matches against teams higher than them, the Tahs and Saders, both of whom are in imperious form. The Clan SHOULD make the finals battling it out for fifth or sixth.​

Hurricanes. Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde team at the wrong time of the season, this lot must be driving their coach mad. I'll bet he's going to bugger off after this year. What's that? Hammett's off to Wales? The best predictions are those proved right after the event. IF the Canes play like they did against the Chiefs I fear them. IF they turn up like they did against the Blues in either of their remaining games they're dead meat.​

Western Force. An unbelievably crap schedule put together by SANZAR has tested the Force beyond apprehension, but they're still in there fighting. If they win their two home games against lower sides (they should) the Force will feature in the finals for the first time. They deserve to.​

Chiefs. Who woulda thought the champs of the last two years were in jeopardy of missing the finals? Two away games against hungry Kiwi sides makes their task very difficult, I don't think they're going to make it. They SHOULD'VE ended up in the top 4, their current travails are entirely their own fault.​

Bulls. Can't beat the lowly Lions, don't deserve to be in the finals.​

Blues. As you didn't do the right thing and put the sardines away at Eden Park no one has any sympathy for you.​

 

[Hawko]

Version 1.6.​

​

16 rounds gone, 3 to go. Table and future fixtures:​

​

Sharks (45 points/played 14) Cheetahs, Stormers​

Waratahs (43/13) Ponies, Clan, Reds​

Crusaders (41/13) Canes, Blues, Clan​

Brumbies (40/14) Tahs, bye, Force​

Highlanders (38/13) Chiefs, Tahs, Saders​

Hurricanes (37/14) Saders, Chiefs, bye​

Western Force (36/13) Blues, Reds, Ponies​

Chiefs (35/13) Clan, Canes, Blues​

Bulls (32/14) Stormers, Rebels​

Blues (31/13) Force, Saders, Chiefs​

​

​

What a weekend! Losses to the Clan, Canes, Chiefs, Force and Bulls put their finals' spots in some jeopardy, while the Sharks loss means they could miss out on a top 2 spot. Six out of the top 10 teams losing on one weekend, amazing (although two matches were against a fellow finals contender). The Ponies, Canes and Bulls, all with only two matches left, must be very nervous. I wrote off the Bulls some time ago as they've been one match in front of the other finals' contenders since the halfway mark and a few spots further down the ladder. The Lions loss has effectively ended their finals quest; there'd have to be some sort of complicated miracle for the Bulls (or the Blues) to reach sixth spot.​

​

The potential finalists:​

​

Sharks. Thank God Jakeball has finally been exposed. And beaten. On one hand I have some sympathy for the Shorks with injuries to key players, but every team has injuries and they have to cope to succeed. The guppies did very well winning three out of four matches on tour, probably better than anyone, including themselves, expected. One can only presume Jake & Co were eyeing off the #1 spot and pencilling in finals dates at ABSA/Growthpoint/Kings Park. Did they relax back in Durban? Did they underestimate the rested Stormers? Or were they buggered from their recent travels? Watched a replay today and I was gobsmacked how much ball was put up in the air (by both sides) when the match was on the line on the last 10 minutes. Hasn't Saffer rugby realised ball-in-hand is priceless in the modern game?​

Jakeball: The game you play when you are not good enough to play rugby.​

Waratahs. Sometimes there's a match which simply has to be won for a team to go on to bigger things; for me that was the Chiefs match away for the Tahs. First win in EnZed for four years; beat the current champs; puts the destiny of the Tahs' final spot in their hands, etc. After travelling to Melbourne to watch last week's win I thought the Tahs were starting to hit some rich form at the right time of the season, and they carried it on in New Plemeth. And isn't nice to watch? Aggressive running, quick rucks, lovely interchanges in the backs, and NO DROPPED BALL! I should add brutal defence, the only way through for the Chiefs was grubbered ball. On the table the Tahs have the best defence and the best for/against, a top spot is now theirs to lose.​

Absolutely!! If this is the upside of 2009-2012 then it was almost bearable to see Foley and Hickey and co. murder the franchise. If we can survive the French tests mostly intact then I think we'll make it to top spot. The Brumbies game is the key. ​

Crusaders. Typical Saders, coming home with a wet sail. Like the Tahs a top 2 spot is entirely up to them. TBH honest I fear them in a finals match.​

We've been to two finals and lost to the Crusaders both times. Those Crusader teams would make absolute mincemeat of this Crusaders lot. Their backs are ordinary except for a couple, and their forwards don't strike real fear. I think we can take them, the Crusaders aura is all they've got.​

Brumbies. Only two matches left, one a whopper against the Tahs in Sydney. Squeaky-bum time for the Ponies, about sixth at best looks like their destiny.​

I think they'll lose to the Tahs and then win their last to just scrape into the six. It will be very tight.​

Highlanders. The Clan had the worst travel schedule in the second half of the comp, but losses against the Saders at home and another against one of the also-rans (Reds) certainly hasn't helped their finals' aspirations. They have two away matches against teams higher than them, the Tahs and Saders, both of whom are in imperious form. The Clan SHOULD make the finals battling it out for fifth or sixth.​

Might be a bridge too far I think.​

Hurricanes. Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde team at the wrong time of the season, this lot must be driving their coach mad. I'll bet he's going to bugger off after this year. What? Hammett's off to Ireland? The best predictions are those proved right after the event. IF the Canes play like they did against the Chiefs I fear them. IF they turn up like they did against the Blues in any of their remaining games they're dead meat.​

Absolutely agree. I think Hammett has two teams and he picks which one to play on the toss of a coin. Has to be heads twice for them to make it.​

Western Force. An unbelievably crap schedule put together by SANZAR has tested the Force beyond apprehension, but they're still in there fighting. If they win their two home games against lower sides (they should) the Force will feature in the finals for the first time. They deserve to.​

Agree. I think they'll be fifth.​

Chiefs. Who woulda the champs of the last two years were in jeopardy of missing the finals. Two away games against hungry Kiwi sides makes their task very difficult, I don't think they're going to make it. They SHOULD'VE ended up in the top 4, their current travails are entirely their own fault.​

Won't make it from here.​

Bulls. Can't beat the lowly Lions, don't deserve to be in the finals.​

They were looking good up till Saturday, but they're gone.​

Blues. As you didn't do the right thing and put the sardines away at Eden Park no one has any sympathy for you.​

Especially not from me. Played out of their skins against us and folded meekly to the Sharks.​

Confidence can quickly become over-confidence but I'm starting to get a really good feeling.

 

[BDA]

I've tried to do the calculations and I think the top six will look like this

1. Tahs - 57
2. Saders - 56
3. Shorks - 54
4. Chiefs - 49
5. Brumbies -45
6. Force - 44

7. Bulls - 43
7. Highlanders - 41
8. Hurricanes - 39

- Tahs are in great form and should go on to win their remaining games, as with the Saders. Bonus points and even for and against will be important for both sides. I expect Saders to take maximum points from the final 3 roudns so tahs should be targeting a two bonus point wins against the Landers and the Reds because they wont get one against the Brumbies.
-The sharks might get maximum points but finish 3rd.
- Chiefs to win all 3 final games and come home strong. A big call on current form but they are the defending champs so i think they are the most likely of the kiwi teams to come good. If they lose any of their final 3 games they'll potentially miss out all together.
-One more win could be enough for the Brumbies to sneak in. The Brumbies should get at least a losing BP against the tahs and by the final round they'll beat the force if they know a win will get them a finals spot (and theyll score 4 tries if its necessary).
- Iv got both the Canes and the Landers missing out because they both play the Saders and the Chiefs.

Prelims Finals
Shorks v Force
Chiefs v Brumbies

Semis
Tahs v Chiefs
Saders v Shorks

Grand Final
Tahs v Saders

 

[Forcefield]

Great fucking round! Come on Tahs for top spot.

I reckon you can count the Blues and Bulls out. They are a statistical possibility but super bloody unlikely. Things are looking very promising for three Aussie teams in the top 6. A Brumbies win over the Force should do it. The Force winning their two home games should do it for us. The Highlanders, Hurricanes, Force and Chiefs need two wins to secure a finals spot. Given that the three Kiwi sides have to play each other once, and still have to win a game against a top side, it'll be very tough.

 

[Benaud]

I think there are 8 teams left in it. There remains a faint mathematical possibility that the Bulls and Blues can make the finals but in both cases, it is supremely unlikely.

I'm expecting the Tahs and Saders to win 2 of their remaining 3 matches and collect 2 bonus points each to finish on 53 and 51 points respectively.

I expect the Sharks to beat the Cheetahs. Whether they finish 1st or 3rd depends on whether they can beat the Stormers in the final round. I'll say 3rd.

I expect the Brumbies will lose to the Tahs and beat the Force to finish on 45 points.

I expect the Force will lose to the Brumbies and win one of their two home games against the Reds and Blues to finish on 42 points.

I expect the Highlanders to win 1 of their remaining 3 matches against the Chiefs, Tahs and Saders to finish on 44 points.

I expect the Canes to win one of their remaining 2 matches against the Saders and Chiefs and finish on 43 points.

And I expect the Chiefs to win 2 of their remaining Kiwi derbies to finish on 44 points.

So I end up with:

Waratahs 53
Crusaders 51
Sharks 50
Brumbies 45
Chiefs 44
Highlanders 44

Hurricanes 43
Force 42

The only thing I'll say with confidence is the Tahs, Saders and Sharks will likely top their conferences and 3 of the remaining 5 listed will make up the remainder. I'm a long way from discounting the Canes and Force despite listing them 7th and 8th at this stage.

 

[qwerty51]

This is looking very 2008.

2008 table:

1 Crusaders 13 11 0 2 369 176 +193 8 52​

2 Waratahs 13 9 1 3 255 186 +69 5 43​

3 Sharks 13 9 1 3 271 209 +62 4 42​

4 Hurricanes 13 8 1 4 310 204 +106 7 41​

5 Stormers 13 8 1 4 269 211 +58 7 41
6 Blues 13 8 0 5 354 267 +87 8 40
7 Chiefs 13 7 0 6 348 349 −1 6 34
8 Force 13 7 0 6 247 278 −31 4 32
9 Brumbies 13 6 0 7 277 317 −40 6 30
10 Bulls 13 6 0 7 324 347 −23 4 28
11 Highlanders 13 3 0 10 257 338 −81 7 19
12 Reds 13 3 1 9 258 323 −65 4 18
13 Cheetahs 13 1 0 12 255 428 −173 9 13
14 Lions 13 2 1 10 206 367 −161 2 12​

 

[kiap]

1. Tahs - 57
2. Saders - 56
3. Shorks - 54
4. Chiefs - 49
5. Brumbies -45
6. Force - 44

Yeah, that's close to my thoughts but I cut back the bonus points slightly (I might also be overrating the Chiefs but reckon they'll keep winning - and obviously if the Tahs lose to the Brumbies, all bets are off).

Team  Pts R17 R18 R19 W/L Pts
----- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Tahs   43 BRU HIG RED 3-0  56
Saders 41 HUR BLU HIG 3-0  54
Shorks 45  -  CHE STO 2-0  54
Chiefs 35 HIG HUR BLU 3-0  48
Force  36 BLU RED BRU 2-1  45
Brums  40 WAR  -  FOR 1-1  45

 

[Forcefield]

Combined, the Chiefs and the Saders play each of the other three NZ sides. They can pretty much torpedo each of them with a three game winning streak coming into the finals.

 

[Lindommer]

Has this lazy scribe from news.com.au been sneaking a peek at G&GR? What do you think: http://www.news.com.au/sport/who-wi...-of-the-run-home/story-fnaqgujp-1226965249605

 

[Forcefield]

Waratahs (48/14) Clan, Reds
Sharks (45/14) Cheetahs, Stormers
Crusaders (42/14) Blues, Clan
Highlanders (42/14) Tahs, Saders
Hurricanes (41/14) Chiefs, bye
Brumbies (40/15) bye, Force
Western Force (36/14) Reds, Ponies
Blues (36/14) Saders, Chiefs
Chiefs (36/14) Canes, Blues
Bulls (32/14) Stormers, Rebels
Getting very, very tight. Still possible for 2 Aussie teams in the finals but looking very fucking unlikely.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^ seems like less than a month ago "someone" was predicting 3 Oz teams to qualify, now you're worried about 2 making it? FWIW I still reckon the winner of the Force v Brumbies will qualify at the expense of the loser. Similarly, the 'canes & Chiefs can't both qualify IMO so again the winner of that will make it at the loser's expense.

The great unknown/ unknowable at this stage is the Blues who are very capable of following up what they did to the Force with what the Brumbies did to them. I'm obviously nervous about my lot facing them next up but hopefully the 'canes loss will be the re-boot (up the arse) they needed.

 

[Hawko]

Waratahs (48/14) Clan,Reds
Sharks (45/14) Cheetahs, Stormers
Crusaders (42/14) Blues, Clan
Highlanders (42/14) Tahs,Saders
Hurricanes (41/14) Chiefs, bye
Brumbies (40/15) bye, Force
Western Force (36/14) Reds, Ponies
Blues (36/14)Saders, Chiefs
Chiefs (36/14) Canes, Blues
Bulls (32/14) Stormers, Rebels
Getting very, very tight. Still possible for 2 Aussie teams in the finals but looking very fucking unlikely.

One scenario would see four NZ teams in the six and the only team to miss out is the 2012/3 champions!

The Blues are a real smokey right now. The Crusaders backs are crap, so the Blues are a real chance next week and then they are at home to the Chiefs. With Kaino back and firing they are a real chance..but then they are the Blues!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

One scenario would see four NZ teams in the six and the only team to miss out is the 2012/3 champions!

The Blues are a real smokey right now. The Crusaders backs are crap, so the Blues are a real chance next week and then they are at home to the Chiefs. With Kaino back and firing they are a real chance..but then they are the Blues!

We get Nadolo back which will help, also DC will likely start & there's also a good chance ID will at least come off the bench, allowing Taylor & Crotty to play at least part of the match in their correct positions. Fuck, if need be Slade to FB & they can both start where they belong, TT 12, RC 13. Having said all of that, if the Blues turn up HIGH ON FIRE per @Dismal's description none of that will matter & then the cat will be well & truly be getting acquainted with her new soon to be de-feathered friends.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

there's also a good chance ID will at least come off the bench,

Ian Dury? He'll be shit at rugby!

BRING IT ON DURY!

GEORGE MOALA WILL SMASH YOU!