I know of a few very talented junior RL players (who had brief dalliances with RU) who have been converted to AFL courtesy of aggressive recruiting by the AFL and Swans development officers.
At least two of these boys are such talented athletes that they would have made it all the way to the NRL. Both will most likely get professional AFL contracts in the next two years.
While it is a small sample, I can not think of any "true blue" talented junior rugby union players that have been converted by the Mexicans and their silly kicking game, therefore IMHO RL is proportionately losing more talented junior athletes to AFL than RU is.
The importing of talent from NZ and the PI to NRL is currently masking the effects of this, but in about 5 or 6 years time, the NRL talent pool will start to see the full impact of the recruiting that the AFL and the Swans started in about 2006, and have been getting progressively more aggressive and successful in annually.