The_Brown_Hornet
John Eales (66)
I'd be OK with experimenting with Hooper and Pocock on the paddock at the same time in the lead up games, but if it doesn't work demonstrably better than with Fardy at 6 I'd be binning the idea pretty quickly.
The impending Hooper vs Pocock Dilemma
- Thread starter Hoolly Doolly
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OK so I've just gone back through the 2014 Wallaby stats, to try and gauge if we need our 6 to be a lineout jumper.
Before I give the answer, I want to ask a quick question to see what people's perceptions are.
How many lineouts do you think Scott Fardy took in 2014?
He played 10 tests, playing around 60-65 minutes on average in each test. As a guide, Rob Simmons played 12 tests and took 52 lineouts.
So how many do you think Fardy took?
As a bonus question, how many do you think Sean McMahon took in his three tests?
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Before I give the answer, I want to ask a quick question to see what people's perceptions are.
How many lineouts do you think Scott Fardy took in 2014?
He played 10 tests, playing around 60-65 minutes on average in each test. As a guide, Rob Simmons played 12 tests and took 52 lineouts.
So how many do you think Fardy took?
As a bonus question, how many do you think Sean McMahon took in his three tests?
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Scoey
Tony Shaw (54)
In the 4 tests on Tour we won 1 game. The game we won we had the highest of our 4 lineout win percentages (91.7%). In all of those 4 Tests we had 2 jumping locks in Simmons and Carter or Simmons and Horwill, with Benny Mac at 8. So 3 solid jumpers in all 4 Tests. McMahon playe in 3 Tests and took 2 lineouts in 2 Tests and 4 lineouts in 1 Test. Jones played 6 in one Test and took 2 lineouts.
It seems entirely likely that we will be starting Skelton in at lock so combine that with Pocock and Hooper playing 6 & 7 we will have Simmons and either Palu or Benny Mac as our other lineout options. We go from 3.5 (almost 4) jumpers in the lineout on the EOYT to 2 to 2.5 jumpers for TRC and World Cup. Insanity.
EDIT: Sorry Baabaa, I was doing the same thing.
KOB1987
John Eales (66)
I can't see it myself but it's been mentioned heaps before.
Scoey
Tony Shaw (54)
It also probably needs pointing out that lineout strategy is more than using all of your 3 or 4 jumpers. Your 6 probably won't get a lot of ball in the lineout but he will get enough to keep defences guessing.
Defending (or attacking as the case may be) your oppositions throw is all about identifying threats, identifying patterns and countering. Having 4 jumpers doesn't mean that all 4 guys will get 3 to 4 takes a game, it means that the opposition has to prioritise which of the 4 guys is going up and where the fuck the ball is going to go.
There's a hell of a lot more to it than it looks.
Defending (or attacking as the case may be) your oppositions throw is all about identifying threats, identifying patterns and countering. Having 4 jumpers doesn't mean that all 4 guys will get 3 to 4 takes a game, it means that the opposition has to prioritise which of the 4 guys is going up and where the fuck the ball is going to go.
There's a hell of a lot more to it than it looks.
That would be my guess as well. Seems reasonable- that Simmons would call to himself double as much as he would to Fardy. The answer, though, is.......
Five.
Five lineouts in 10 tests. 10 Tests in which our lineout won 87% of its throws.
So can Fardy really be considered a jumping blindside, if he took only five lineouts in 10 tests? McMahon took eight in three tests, Skelton took four in his one start and six stints off the bench.
I understand the idea of being a threat, but surely opposition teams would know this statistic. That number isn't nearly high enough for him to be considered an active threat.
The evidence of last year’s tests seems to support the idea that playing Skelton and two 7s could work, as Simmons calls the ball to himself most of the time anyway, and the blindside isn’t really a threat. Or maybe it just shows us that Fardy isn’t the lineout asset we may have thought.
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I definitely think the biggest worry about trying to play Pocock and Hooper together is that the scrum won't have enough grunt. We'd need to be very careful there as ultimately, I think that's where our RWC chances will live and die.
My memory of 2014 (and in particular a couple of the Bledisloe tests) is that Simmons calls to himself too much. He's our best jumper and caller but if the ball goes to him too often it becomes too easy to steal or at least disrupt.
Skelton has won quite a lot of ball at 2 for the Tahs this season and much of it comes down to the fact that I don't think other teams really think he's a threat so they mark up against Dave Dennis much more heavily and he is the lineout caller. I think the Wallaby lineout would improve if Simmons called to himself a fair bit less.
My memory of 2014 (and in particular a couple of the Bledisloe tests) is that Simmons calls to himself too much. He's our best jumper and caller but if the ball goes to him too often it becomes too easy to steal or at least disrupt.
Skelton has won quite a lot of ball at 2 for the Tahs this season and much of it comes down to the fact that I don't think other teams really think he's a threat so they mark up against Dave Dennis much more heavily and he is the lineout caller. I think the Wallaby lineout would improve if Simmons called to himself a fair bit less.
Hans
Fred Wood (13)
Don't know how you would go about getting the stat, but how many did each of Horwill, Simmons, Fardy, McMahon, Skelton & Jones steal? If Fardy is lengths ahead in this category it could change the dimension a little, however our initial estimate here appears to be close to the mark.
As i mentioned yesterday, if they play Hoocock and Pooper, then you would need to likely run with Ben Mc at 8 as he is a better jumper than Palu. Palu off the bench with 20 to go.
Wilson
Phil Kearns (64)
It was interesting to see, last year for the reds I remember Simmons calling Schatz much more often than he called himself, so you have to wonder if there was some preset strategy he was working towards. Either way we definitely need to be smarter about how we use our lineout this year.
How much does a blindside contribute to the scrum? And how much worse could Hooper be to affect it?
It's a slow day at work and the more thought I'm giving this, the more I'm convinced it just might work.
It would present challenges at the lineout and scrum, but I think those could be overcome. And I think having both guys out there for the full 80 would make a huge positive impact to the game, that outweighs the challenges presented at the set piece.
But is Cheika crazy enough to try it???
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It's a slow day at work and the more thought I'm giving this, the more I'm convinced it just might work.
It would present challenges at the lineout and scrum, but I think those could be overcome. And I think having both guys out there for the full 80 would make a huge positive impact to the game, that outweighs the challenges presented at the set piece.
But is Cheika crazy enough to try it???
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For the year, Simmons had four steals, Fardy and Horwill had one each. That was all.
This could lead you to two conclusions:
1. Our defensive lineout is so bad that we could only manage six steals in a calendar year, so why in God's name do we want to weaken it further by playing Skelton, Hooper and Pocock in the one XV?
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2. Our defensive lineout is so bad that we could only manage six steals in a calendar year, so in reality what do we really lose by playing Skelton, Hooper and Pocock in the one XV?
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ESPNscrum has lineout steals in the stats but you have to go game by game.
We had so few last year though. I really don't think it is worth thinking about at this point. We just don't get enough for it to be statistically meaningful.
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