Sydney Subbies 2025

[DaSchmooze]

Or finishing 5th in Barraclough this year...

Oh yeah you're right - only first grade matters

 

[DaSchmooze]

I think that's the sore point for a lot of people - if it's supposed to be based solely on on-field performance, then it completely stands to reason that Mosman and Petersham, as the 2 lowest sides, should have been relegated (to fill out Div Two to 8 teams).

But, this is what the Ops Manual says:

I think Petersham, by their own account, would say 2023 was an annus horribilis - without extenuating or mitigating circumstances, their heads were going to be on the block regardless of the teams above them.

Mosman's saving grace was probably having the Judd minor premiership and (losing) teams in the 4ths and 5ths Grand Final. Same for Forest who took out the Barbour - Mosman had a 4th placed finish in Whiddon but other than that, neither club had any other finals teams.

St. Patrick's, you could argue, got short-changed as Colts Minor Premiers but they also had a 5th-place best finish in any senior grade (2nd XV), Kentwell and Whiddon spoons and 2nd-last place in Judd. Forest were Burke spooners but you could argue that St. Pat's had the benefit of higher club championship multipliers for Colts that placed them a lot higher than either Mosman or Forest, who were not good but did have better placings on average.

The next team you'd have had to look at from that list would've be Blue Mountains who won their maiden Kentwell - they were safe regardless (especially with Subbies having very few clubs west of even Briars). St. Pat's drew the short straw and Subbies will feel vindicated, right or wrong, seeing their 1s miss the Finals - their 2nd place in CC probably sends the message that they're in the right division for now.

I don't think anyone would argue that Newport trading with Forest for next year (as per the "Clubs" pages on the website) is a bad call - top of D2 goes up and bottom of D1 goes down - but there will always be winners and losers with pro-reg. Had St. Pats and Petersham gone 1-2 in the D2 CC this season and Lindfield finished dead last way behind, it would have been unequivocally wrong, but that is not what happened.

Agree with most of that but would argue results happening this year proving actions of last year is revisionist.

The minute you add subjective assessment into a decision, you open yourself to a litany of issues. Keep the metric as whole and soley data driven and you don't have a problem.

If having a weaker Pats 1st grade side is the issue, then take a look at how the club champs is calculated - for sure. But keeping promotion and relegation as a numbers based exercise allows all clubs to have certainty around what the rules are and can operate accordingly.

 

[Here To Do]

Agree with most of that but would argue results happening this year proving actions of last year is revisionist.

It definitely is but there's no other way to check than to look at what happened next.

Players and coaches leave when things get tough, we know that, but it was also not a case of them being Waratahs among juniors. Hence the "right division for now" - they were not judged to have been competitive enough to stay in Div 1 but stayed competitive and strong, even without being world beaters, in most grades in D2. That would seem to suggest that they made the right decision for Pat's, in isolation.

Where you could argue the decision was wrong is that Pat's may have bounced back this season in D1 had Forest dropped last year instead of this year. You could argue the Forest reprieve has not paid off, where it may have galvanised Pat's to go flat out in 2024 having flirted with the drop (which did not happen to Forest).

I have no dog in the fight - I've always seen Petersham and St. Pat's as elite clubs and respect the hell out of them and all the D1 and D2 clubs (and Subbies clubs in general). I'm just trying to give another point of view to a really polarising issue.

 

[DaSchmooze]

It definitely is but there's no other way to check than to look at what happened next.

Players and coaches leave when things get tough, we know that, but it was also not a case of them being Waratahs among juniors. Hence the "right division for now" - they were not judged to have been competitive enough to stay in Div 1 but stayed competitive and strong, even without being world beaters, in most grades in D2. That would seem to suggest that they made the right decision for Pat's, in isolation.

Where you could argue the decision was wrong is that Pat's may have bounced back this season in D1 had Forest dropped last year instead of this year. You could argue the Forest reprieve has not paid off, where it may have galvanised Pat's to go flat out in 2024 having flirted with the drop (which did not happen to Forest).

I have no dog in the fight - I've always seen Petersham and St. Pat's as elite clubs and respect the hell out of them and all the D1 and D2 clubs (and Subbies clubs in general). I'm just trying to give another point of view to a really polarising issue.

And fair and reasonable commentary too Appreciate your thoughts.

From my perspective, you've hit the nail on the head in your last sentence... it's a polarising issue. But we can remove the polarisation ... it comes from the subjectivity. Remove the subjectivity and we're all good!

Anyway - again - I appreciate your dispassionate thoughts on the matter.

 

[Pfitzy]

Subbies' 2024 annual report has been uploaded here: https://rugby.net.au/news/2024-AGM-x-15820.html

Key in this is one statistic in particular - player numbers listed as 5125. Some of that is womens players no doubt, but it is a promising sign after several years of trending downward and then stabilising last year.

Of course it is only pure registrations; number of games played probably needs to be another consideration aka the tyrekickers.

 

[Crashy]

Yeah we need to see a big pick up in players in 2025. Sounds like we probably will after the covid issues which will be great for the game. Lions tour wont hurt either.

 

[Here To Do]

Yeah we need to see a big pick up in players in 2025. Sounds like we probably will after the covid issues which will be great for the game. Lions tour wont hurt either.

I fear we won't see the benefit of the BIL tour until next season if people pick up at all - I remember going to the 3rd test last time out and the buzz around Sydney the week or two prior was incredible but I'm not sure we'll see the same next year

 

[KentwellCup>ShuteShield]

Draw for Div 1 released. Any words from Newport on how they are shaping up for div 1?

 

[Crashy]

Heavy-D has all the mail on Newport.

 

[Here To Do]

Draw for Div 1 released. Any words from Newport on how they are shaping up for div 1?

Will be interesting to see if they can still hang with the "big boys" - you could argue Lindfield were more dominant in D2 the previous year and struggled early, how will the Breakers be able to get on early? They're a tough team to beat, but so are a lot of the D1 clubs - will be intriguing to see how they go.

 

[KentwellCup>ShuteShield]

Yeah I reckon tough to beat at home, I don't think they will travel well though however.

 

[Pfitzy]

Yeah I reckon tough to beat at home, I don't think they will travel well though however.

Need to get the lower grades in order on the travel side of things. Can't be a one-sided argument for the peninsula.

 

[Pfitzy]

Changes the footprint of Division 1 a bit

 

[Pfitzy]

Div 2 as well:

 

[Post Match Boat Race]

Will be interesting to see if they can still hang with the "big boys" - you could argue Lindfield were more dominant in D2 the previous year and struggled early, how will the Breakers be able to get on early? They're a tough team to beat, but so are a lot of the D1 clubs - will be intriguing to see how they go.

Nothern Beaches Avalon Bulldogs Leaue side looks likely to be up and running in 2025 after a years rest. What players impact will that have with the Breakers (I think the Newport Captain / Hooker played league for most of the season in 2023 after they won Div 2 in 2022.)

Heavy D - thoughts?

 

[KentwellCup>ShuteShield]

do avalon compensate players?

 

[Prodigy]

Chris Nay wasn’t coaching. Looks like Luke Rams has moved on though.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Key in this is one statistic in particular - player numbers listed as 5125. Some of that is womens players no doubt, but it is a promising sign after several years of trending downward and then stabilising last year.

View attachment 20880​

Of course it is only pure registrations; number of games played probably needs to be another consideration aka the tyrekickers.

Intresting and any uptick is a positive thing. The womens game needs more player. May be subbies but I hope it's an indication of similar in other places and comps because the Wallaroos need players.

I still tend to think Subbies level Rugby needs to morph into a smaller version of itself to survive long term. If that means 2 Grades and Colts so be it but the days of mass Clubs being able to have 75 grade players and 30 Colts is going to end for the majority of Clubs.

People are struggling for time in their lives. The days of Dad pissing off for all of Saturday to play Rugby then sink 10 beers and see the kids Sunday morning are over as well.

Would be interesting to see the average age of players over the last few decades. It would be flying down if I had to guess.

Said it before but I really think Friday nights could be the way forward. At least for some divisions and I get the issue of where has lights.... Sport has to fit around you and not the other way around now.

 

[Post Match Boat Race]

do avalon compensate players?

Sorry not sure - its League so ......

 

[Here To Do]

Div 2 as well:

View attachment 20897

Thanks for the inspiration

I thought something looked familiar and I pinpointed what it was that caught my eye.

This is where each club in Subbies (except Hawkesbury Valley who straddle the line at its north-western extent) has their home ground:

The black line is the "Red Rooster line" which has become infamous over the past few years - in simple terms, on the north/east side are the traditionally affluent and well-educated suburbs, with the poorer or lower socio-economic areas (those who tend to have Red Rooster restaurants) on the south/west side.

The dots are red for D1, yellow for D2, green for D3, blue for D4 and purple for all other divisions (and Penrith who haven't yet been graded AFAIK).

St Pat's and the Blue Mountains are the outliers as stronger clubs, but this should be a pretty good indication of where Subbies and rugby in general need to improve in Sydney to increase player numbers. The majority of stronger clubs are east of the A3 (Lane Cove and King Georges Rds corridor) and north of the harbour/Parramatta River, with Waverley and Colleagues piled on top of each other on the southern shore.

Notable is the lack of any clubs in one of the biggest growth areas of Sydney - Liverpool, Cabramatta, Fairfield, etc. In fact, there are NO Senior men's rugby clubs in the area bordered by the M4 in the north, Nepean to the west, Holsworthy barracks to the South and the A6 (Silverwater and Alfords Point/Heathcote Rds corridor).

These areas are choc-full of "new arrivals" and generational descendents thereof looking to integrate into the broader community, as well as broad and diverse communities who may not be from traditional "rugby" cultures, who are not being serviced, in any way, by our sport. I doubt they even know it exists.

The AFL and soccer, no doubt, are targeting these areas with league also having established strongholds there. This is where rugby needs to ramp up and no doubt they are. If anyone is down there and has the means to set up a club around the Crossroads or Liverpool city, you'd pretty much have that whole corridor to yourselves.