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SupeRugby Final 2011: Queensland Reds V Canterbury Crusaders

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cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Indeed, BDA.
Interesting that the Crusaders seemingly quite easily picked apart the 2 best defensive teams in the comp (on points and tries conceded) - the Tahs and the Stormers (twice). They did it by withstanding whatever attack they had, then smashing them through the forwards in the mid-section of the games. In the Tahs and especially last night's match v the Stormers, they knocked the stuffing out of the opposition, then seemed to let the foot off a bit without really letting the opposition back in with a real chance. Crusader scoring slowed down.
The Reds will bring far more danger to the game.
The issue for them will be getting decent set-piece play going and maintaining good defensive structure.
I think, and hope, the Reds can do it, but I still think the Crusaders are just ahead for favouritism for mine.
 
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whatty

Bob Loudon (25)
I don't think a little change in time zones and travel compared to how pumped the Crusaders must be for this game and what they have gone through this season its a VERY small distraction.
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
Attention to those of little faith. Last year, people were saying that the Reds couldn't beat anybody, and yet they beat all the 2010 and 2011 finalists (bar the Sharks, who they didn't play). They beat the Crusaders just a few weeks ago, and whilst I know that this doesn't mean history will repeat itself, the confidence boost that will give the boys coming into the final is unmeasurable. Last year, nobody thought the Wallabies could beat the All Blacks as nobody had ever lifted the Bledisloe Cup. Well, they did it- we're currently reigning champions in AUS vs. NZ clashes. Moreover, who were the halves in that match? Oh yeah, Will Genia and Quade Cooper. They've done it before, they've handled the pressure at both Super Rugby level and Test match level, so there's no reason they can't do it again.

Swarley, as a general thrust as you have it above, GO REDS!, I agree with you (except re Aus as 'reigning champs v NZ', we won one dead rubber, offshore exhibition match v ABs in 2010, with Dan C out for half of it, and Donald helpfully doing-a-Donald-under-pressure, but I digress. What was encouraging is that our trend line of losing points margin v ABs declined quite sharply over 2010, as I recall, so let's hope for 2011 3N.).

Based upon a review of the Reds last night and the Cru this morning, I think it's objective to say that (a) the Cru are now/recently playing better overall than when we last met them, and they have more and better players back whom are contributing to that, and (b), it's very debatable as to whether we have improved significantly since that last meeting.

There were serious Reds team blemishes last night, were there not?:

- QC (Quade Cooper)'s awful place kicking lapses which inexplicably occur, what, every 3rd or 4th game. Could if repeated easily cost a close, high pressure match v Cru, and who's our good-enough backup with Harris out;

- S Fainga'a's line throwing accuracy is if anything gradually deteriorating over 2011, and/or our line out as a whole is recently showing exploitable frailties about every 5th or so time;

- The Blues held possession well last night at the breakdown, credit to them, but I felt our forwards were way off their best in gaining possession back and pressuring the Blues' loose forwards;

- I thought many of Genia's kicks from hand and quite a few of QC (Quade Cooper)'s were not well constructed as to timing and placement, and just resulted in a reversal of pressure and possession, with little gain, and if the Blues had not been so obsessed with flinging the ball wide at every turn, they could have made much more of these low-value (for the Reds) kicks in open play;

- Not a problem as such and it's masochistic and paradoxical to say it, but I worry that the team is somehow getting a tad over-dependent upon QC (Quade Cooper) brilliance as 10. Of course that's huge, and he's a massive player etc, but somewhere somehow I'd like to see a few more tries set up and delivered by predominantly excellent forwards play, for example. If QC (Quade Cooper) has an off-night as 10 (as well as with tee), or is injured, well, let's not talk about that now.

Looking at the Cru last night, there were very few if any facets of their play that were not in quite excellent shape. Playing away at Newlands seemed to worry them not one bit, and their execution was of a high order. The Stormers were poor, yes, but if the Cru repeat that standard of execution excellence, composure and consistency, and we do not correct a number of our execution deficiencies by Saturday, we could well lose by 10 or more.

Having said all that: GO REDS! Remember the Name.
 
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RuckinGoodStats

Guest
Cooper had an off night but he's been kicking at 70%+ this year. No need to go dropping players to protect him.

Cooper is now at 68% 71 from 104 attempts. Carter is 74% 64 from 87 attempts.

Cooper was 70% (68 from 97) as he ran out to play the Blues
 
C

chriscullen

Guest
Tab opening odds for the final see crusaders faves at $1.55 and reds $2.35.
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
Cooper is now at 68% 71 from 104 attempts. Carter is 74% 64 from 87 attempts.

Cooper was 70% (68 from 97) as he ran out to play the Blues

Groucho, Ruckin Good Stats' deeper analysis of the Carter v Cruden kicking success this year is quite fascinating, in part as it calibrates to degree of difficulty as well as to absolute success or otherwise. Also interesting is G Henry's obvious focus upon kicking success as a basis for back up selection this RWC year, etc.

See: http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/07/01/arron-cruden-a-better-kicker-than-dan-carter/
 

AngrySeahorse

Peter Sullivan (51)
I don't know why people are saying the saders are favorites. 3 time zones in two weeks and returning from south Africa v the number one side in the comp with a win over them already. QLD are the frontrunners, crusaders have done well to brilliant to be where they are but QLD and aus rugby fans need to embrace that the reds are hot to trott here.

After so many years of being the entertainers, the saders slowing this game done and keeping it tight is what is going to win it for them, cant wait, best result for the final out of this weeks games.

Sums up how I feel completely. Stayed up to watch my team last night and whilst I'm happy on the way they turned out I'm still concerned about the travel effect on them coming back then playing in another packed 'away' game against the best team in the comp this year. If any team can deal with all that it's the Saders but it is a huge toll for any team. McCaw never blamed travel at the end of the game last night but of course he never would. I believe we can win but it will be very tough.

I have quite a few mates who follow the Reds here in Newcastle and its very interesting how much their tune had changed heading into the Blues game last night. A few weeks ago they were so confident the Reds could beat anyone now all this talk of "well if we lose theres next year we've got a good team", not saying thats not true but christ its a 180 degree turn in the talk from earlier this year. The suggestion of the Saders being fav's for the final by my Reds mates on facebook is ridiculous and just more evidence that Queenslanders always seem to want the underdog tag even when they arent. Take that fav's tag and embrace it Reds fans. And the Tab has to be run by some pretty deluded people also with those odds.
 

redstragic

Alan Cameron (40)
I see a bit of the old 'Ooh it's the Crusaders!' pants-wetting syndrome here. They made the Stormers look poor, reports say, yet they managed only two tries to one and didn't get over the line in the second half. That tells me they're still bogged in the middle of the field, concentrating on throwing bodies around instead of the ball.

The pants-wetters went back and forth between the Blues and Cru throughout the Super season. Both proved fallible. They're just footy teams. The Reds know that and they'll approach the next game like all the others.

Got to agree, they are just human and have travelled 22000k in 7 days. I hope reds don't buy into the myth and just play what is in front of them.
 

Ignoto

Peter Sullivan (51)
Looking at the Cru last night, there were very few if any facets of their play that were not in quite excellent shape. Playing away at Newlands seemed to worry them not one bit, and their execution was of a high order. The Stormers were poor, yes, but if the Cru repeat that standard of execution excellence, composure and consistency, and we do not correct a number of our execution deficiencies by Saturday, we could well lose by 10 or more.

Two weeks ago, I thought the Crusaders really weren't on the money, they just didn't seem to have a clear cut plan in the first half (and I felt the scoreline actually flattered them two weeks ago).

So I do think there is a chance that we could seem them not physically being right, but mentally. I can only imagine how exhausting the last month or so has been for them!
 

darkhorse

Darby Loudon (17)
A team that hasn't had a win against us since 2009 is hardly Kryptonite. But their form is worrying.

What you mean is they haven't beaten you in their last 2 games. It's hardly a dominant streak. If you go back further things look sour. In 2009, the Reds were clearly better, whilst in 2010 you can hardly claim that they were clear winners. The forum was mired with claims that the Saders' should have won. Regardless of that they did win, but the Saders' will he hard to beat again and if anyone can beat the Reds they can, as much as I hope they lose.

I'm not basing the 'kryptonite' (probably a poor choice of words) claim on the past, just that every team has a way to be beaten and certain teams are more vulnerable to certain game plans. The Reds are probably the better side, but the Crusaders have the personnel and play in a way that will make the reds more than uncomfortable.

The Reds clearest weakness, their scrum, is the Crusaders greatest strength. The way Saders' possess the defensive structures to limit the Reds in attack and have shown this year that they can score points regardless of the amount possession they have.
 
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Richard D. James

Guest
I watched the game live last night and my first thoughts were "the Reds are screwed" but on second viewing today I've changed my tune a little.

The Crusaders were very good, but the Stormers were equally poor. I agree with what others have said, the Reds need to approach this with the same attitude they've shown all year. That they're good enough to beat anybody. This is what got them this far in the first place.

Yes it's going to require a massive effort, but that's why it's a final.

Go Reds!
 

BDA

Jim Lenehan (48)
What you mean is they haven't beaten you in their last 2 games. It's hardly a dominant streak.

Actually i believe there was also two trial games they won, so technically it would be 4 games in the last 2 years...Although im not suggesting that is a streak
 

Sully

Tim Horan (67)
Staff member
What you mean is they haven't beaten you in their last 2 games. It's hardly a dominant streak. If you go back further things look sour. In 2009, the Reds were clearly better, whilst in 2010 you can hardly claim that they were clear winners. The forum was mired with claims that the Saders' should have won. Regardless of that they did win, but the Saders' will he hard to beat again and if anyone can beat the Reds they can, as much as I hope they lose.

I'm not basing the 'kryptonite' (probably a poor choice of words) claim on the past, just that every team has a way to be beaten and certain teams are more vulnerable to certain game plans. The Reds are probably the better side, but the Crusaders have the personnel and play in a way that will make the reds more than uncomfortable.

The Reds clearest weakness, their scrum, is the Crusaders greatest strength. The way Saders' possess the defensive structures to limit the Reds in attack and have shown this year that they can score points regardless of the amount possession they have.
You forgot the trial matches
 

Groucho

Greg Davis (50)
I don't think a little change in time zones and travel compared to how pumped the Crusaders must be for this game and what they have gone through this season its a VERY small distraction.

Historically that hasn't been the case. No team has ever won the final after traveling to or from South Africa.
 

DPK

Peter Sullivan (51)
No team has won the competition without playing at their home ground, either. I don't think statistical history means much to the Crusaders.
 

Groucho

Greg Davis (50)
No team has won the competition without playing at their home ground, either. I don't think statistical history means much to the Crusaders.

They're just a footy team. The Crusaders are one of those teams who didn't manage to win away.
 

DPK

Peter Sullivan (51)
I know, I'm not saying they are anything more than a group of individuals intensely focused on achieving a goal with little regard for any distractions.
 
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