This game could almost decide where the Waratahs will finish this season. They won't be a top team based on their performances so far; I think they'll end up mid-table but this game could be a slippery-slide towards the bottom. The Jaguares are a better team than their performances to date, they just need to tighten up on their discipline. They are at home for this game and are likely to come out firing because they are already on the skids and will want to reverse that.
The Waratahs have this game and then a game against the Rebels before their first bye. Given the accumulated travel I don't expect a win next week, the Rebels are starting to build some momentum. So a loss this week as well will have them on 6/7 points by the time the comp is one third over, not a winning proposition. Ergo, its a must-win game.
There are three Keys to a Waratah victory:
- The scrum must improve. Now that's a statement of the bleeding obvious if ever there was one, but the question on everyone's lips is "how can it, given the apparent talent available?" Gibson's stubborn streak means his best tight head is at home honing his fitness and why Latu is on the outer is anyone's guess. What is left is two serviceable loose heads, two props just out of the U-20's and a Fijian prop who did not cover himself in glory last week; and of course a back five who don't appear to have a lot of push. This could get very ugly, very quickly.
- I lost count last week of how many times the Waratahs were on the front foot and making good ground only for someone to stuff it up with a bad pass, dropped ball or loss of the ball in contact. It reminded me of last year so much I thought I had dropped into a time loop a la Groundhog Day. That has to improve.
- They need Kurtley Beale on the pitch. With him, Foley looks like a matchwinner; without him, pretty ordinary. Kurtley is the spark that makes things happen.
My tipping proves I am no expert and I have literally no idea how this game is likely to pan out. So, with that in mind I will be watching a couple of players to see how they go. Holloway was brilliant week 2, anonymous week 3. Which Holloway will turn up for round 4? Hanigan has impressed so far (scrum aside), will his new found power game continue? Foketi looks the real deal so far, will he continue his great progress? Will Newsome and Naiyaravoro get a chance to make a contribution? Surely Kellaway has played himself out of the 23.
The life of a Waratah tragic can sure be hard sometimes.
