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Super Rugby - Road to the Finals 2018

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cyclopath

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Hawko said:
It's looking way brighter than two weeks ago!
Click to expand...

True. Overall, I agree we probably are not quite at the level of the Canes (at their best), the Crusaders or maybe the Chiefs, although the Tahs ran most of the Kiwi teams pretty close including the Crusaders in NZ. IF we finish second, we're a chance, but if we end up third I think our odds get way longer. In any event, the Tahs have ended up in a position I just would not have believed possible 6 rounds ago. So that's something.
 
Lindommer

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
One week to go and spots as well as positions in the finals up fer grabs. The table before the last round:

away matches in italics
negative points difference in red
conference leaders in bold

Crusaders pts 58/won 9/pd 121 Blues
Hurricanes 50/11/135 Chiefs
Chiefs 45/10/91 Canes
Waratahs 44/9/121 Brumbies
Lions 41/8/58 Bulls
Highlanders 40/9/14 Rebels
Jaguares 38/9/1 Sharks
Rebels 35/7/15 Clan
Sharks 32/6/15 Jaguares
Brumbies 30/6/38 Tahs
Stormers 29/6/33 bye
Bulls 29/6/35 Lions
Reds 23/5/133 Sunwolves
Blues 22/4/94 Saders
Sunwolves 14/3/239 Reds


Stormers, Bulls, Reds, Blues and Sunwolves are out of contention, start planning for next year boys.

Crusaders; best position 1st, worst 1st. Prediction 1st
Hurricanes: best 2nd, worst, (lose to Chiefs by 45 with no BP) 3rd. Pred. 2nd
Chiefs: best (beat Canes by 45 + Canes don't get losing BP) 2nd, worst (lose to Canes with no BP, Tahs win, Lions win + Clan beat Rebels by 106) 5th. Pred. 4th
Waratahs: best (beat Ponies + Chiefs lose) 3rd. worst (lose to Ponies with no BP, Chiefs win, Lions win by 64 + Clan beat Rebels by 136 OR a winning BP) 6th. Pred. 3rd
Lions: best (beat Bulls + both Chiefs and Tahs lose with no BP OR beat Bulls by 164 + Chiefs lose and Tahs lose with BP) 3rd, worst (lose to Bulls + Clan and Jaguares win) 7th. Pred. 5th
Highlanders: best (BP win over Rebels by 136, Tahs and Lions lose OR no BP win, Lions lose, Chiefs lose by 106 + Tahs lose by 165) 3rd, worst (lose with no BP + Jaguares win and Rebels win with BP) 8th . Pred. 6th
Jaguares; best (beat Sharks, Clan + Lions lose OR Beat Sharks with BP, Clan lose, Lions lose with BP) 5th, worst (lose with no BP + Rebels win OR lose with BP + Rebels win with BP) 8th. Pred. 7th
Rebels: best (beat Clan + Jaguares lose OR beat Clan with BP + Jaguares lose with BP) 7th, worst (lose with no BP, Sharks win + Brumbies win by 24 and a BP) 10th. Pred. 8th
Sharks: best (beat Jaguares + Rebels lose) 8th, worst (lose to Jaguares + Brumbies win) 10th. Pred. 9th
Brumbies: best (beat Tahs by possibly 24 and BP + Rebels and Sharks lose) 8th, worst (lose to Tahs + Bulls win) 11th. Pred. 10th

If form so far's any guide the only positions changing will be those teams in 3rd and 4th spots. That leaves the first week of the finals looking like this after adjusting for conference leaders bolded above:

Crusaders v Rebels (may as well stay in NZ lads)
Waratahs v Jaguares (flying over from SAf surely the Argies travel will catch up with them)
Lions v Highlanders
Hurricanes v Chiefs (same opponents in consecutive weeks but different venue)
 
cyclopath

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Umm, no.
Someone from SA conference has to finish 2nd or 3rd. So, worst the Tahs can be is 3rd, ditto Lions or Jaguares.
 
Brumby Runner

Brumby Runner

Jason Little (69)
Just one other small adjustment. The only way the Brumbies can possibly make the finals is for the Rebels to lose by more than 7. Therefore, they only have to beat the Tahs by 16 and maybe less, not 24, to get there in the highly unlikely circumstances that both the Rebels and Sharks lose and the Brumbies do beat the Tahs with a bonus point.

But a great effort nevertheless Lindommer.
 
RoffsChoice

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
My money is on:
Crusaders (63pts) - Brumbies (35pts)
Waratahs (44pts) - Lions (42pts)
Jaguares (43pts) - Highlanders (45pts)
Hurricanes (54pts) - Chiefs (45pts)
 
Lindommer

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
Quite right, BR. The complication of losing BPs makes the final pozzies a lottery, which is about the extent of the Brumbies chances. Sadly.
 
Lindommer

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
Chiefs beat Canes in Hamilton by 4 points, a mere 41 points short of gaining a home final against the same team. BUT, beating the Canes while not at full strength will give them plenty of confidence heading into next week's return match.
 
waiopehu oldboy

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
^^^^^^^ the required margin was +23 with a BP & you'd have to say that at HT it looked at least possible. With Ngatai probably back next week (later withdrawal with flu symptoms) plus Cane & Ardron they're a genuine threat as 'canes have rather gone off the boil since the June break.
 
Lindommer

Lindommer

Simon Poidevin (60)
Staff member
Quite right, B81. I didn't take the relative PDs into calculation when two teams are vying against each other for a pozzy. Can't be bothered revising my original post, complicated enough as it is.


I'll bet you're an accountant......
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
So any Sharks win knocks the Rebels out. Jaguares win or draw and the Rebels are in.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 
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