Super Rugby - Road to the Finals 2018

[Braveheart81]

So we've got three weeks off for the June test series and then three weeks left of Super Rugby before the finals.

The current standings are as follows:

Crusaders - 54 - bye, Hig (H), Blu (H)
Lions - 40 - Sha (A), bye, Bul (H)
Waratahs -35 - Reb (A), Sun (H), Bru (H)
Hurricanes - 45 - Bru (A), Blu (H), Chi (A)
Highlanders - 40 - Chi (H), Cru (A), Reb (H)
Chiefs -37 - Hig (A), Bru (H), Hur (H)
Jaguares - 34 - Sto (H), Bul (A), Sha (A)
Rebels - 34 - War (H), Red (A), Hig (A)
Sharks - 28 - Lio (H), Sto (A), Jag (H)

Even with one less game in hand the Crusaders will most likely win the minor premiership.

The Sharks are the only team outside the top 8 who can realistically still make the finals. They need to win their last three games and pick up some bonus points to make it.

The Rebels and Waratahs should both make it which will be good to have two Aussie teams in the finals. The bad news is that whoever doesn't win the conference will most likely travel to New Zealand to play the Crusaders or South Africa to play the Lions. The Rebels need to beat the Tahs in Melbourne to have a realistic chance of topping the conference.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I don't think the Sharks can catch the Rebels & can't really see the current order changing other than possibly the Chiefs re-gaining fifth but the Clan are unbeaten at home this year so I suspect it won't happen.

Worth remembering that the semi final matchups are winner of QF1 (1 v 8) v winner of QF2 (4 v 5) & QF3 (2 v 7) v QF4 (3 v 6), so:

QF1 Crusaders v Rebels
QF2 Hurricanes v Highlanders
QF3 Lions v Jaguares
QF4 Waratahs v Chiefs

SF1 Crusaders v Hurricanes
SF2 Lions v Chiefs

GF ??? but if it's in Christchurch I'm going

 

[Rebels3]

If the Rebels can move upto 7th and the Lions continue to falter a little there is a very real possibility of an all Aussie qtr final (Tahs 2nd/Rebels 7th).

Could then also have the comical situation where the Crusaders host a kiwi team in the semi, lose to them and the Tahs win their semi to host the final. It's not that far fetched but would be a mockery to the system that it's even possible given the difference in competition points

 

[Braveheart81]

If the Lions drop a game and the Tahs win out they will finish 2nd. If the Tahs come third, hopefully the Chiefs will lose two of their last three and drop down to 7th and then beat the Lions in South Africa.

The Sharks definitely need to win their last three to have a chance of making it. The Jaguares have a reasonably tough finish as well with two away games (albeit all games against teams lower than them). If the Jaguares slip up at home against the Stormers then anything could happen.

 

[Rebels3]

Lions still have to serve their bye week and have to play a desperate sharks away from home and the Bulls at home. Can honestly see them only winning the Bulls game.

Tahs have the Sunpuppies at home (should be 5 points), Rebels away (should at least pick up a bonus point) and Brumbies at home (should win, maybe even a bonus point). Think that will put them ahead of the Lions and into 2nd.

Problem with the Rebels is the remaining fixtures could easily be 3 defeats. Tahs at home, Reds away and Highlanders away. Brings the Sharks back into the equation, although they as described earlier are inconsistent

 

[Hawko]

Lions still have to serve their bye week and have to play a desperate sharks away from home and the Bulls at home. Can honestly see them only winning the Bulls game.

Tahs have the Sunpuppies at home (should be 5 points), Rebels away (should at least pick up a bonus point) and Brumbies at home (should win, maybe even a bonus point). Think that will put them ahead of the Lions and into 2nd.

Problem with the Rebels is the remaining fixtures could easily be 3 defeats. Tahs at home, Reds away and Highlanders away. Brings the Sharks back into the equation, although they as described earlier are inconsistent

With the benefit of round seventeen having been completed, the most likely scenario looks like turning into an Australian nightmare. I think it'll finish Crusaders, Waratahs, Jaguares, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Lions, Highlanders, Rebels. That means the Rebels are away to the Crusaders and the Waratahs at home to the Highlanders. The Highlanders are the Waratahs bogey team, especially at the SFS, and I wouldn't give tuppence for their chances. I guess Cheik will be happy as he gets more prep time before the Bledisloes but that didn't help us much last year.

Only possibility is if the Rebels play out of their skin in Dunedin in round 19 we could have them again at the SFS. But karma from Friday would probably rule and we'd end up losing that. In reality the best outcome would be for the Waratahs to throw the Sunwolves game and try for third spot (only joking).

 

[swingpass]

In reality the best outcome would be for the Waratahs to throw the Sunwolves game and try for third spot (only joking).

the way the Sunwolves are playing the Tahs may not have to throw the game to finish third.

ps Can the Jags still win the SA conference ?

 

[Hawko]

the way the Sunwolves are playing the Tahs may not have to throw the game to finish third.

ps Can the Jags still win the SA conference ?

I would have them as slight favourites. The Lions have only one game left (against the imploding Bulls, for whom tackling appears to be an optional extra). The Jags have two, both away, the hardest of which is the Sharks game in round 19. My best guess (remembering my tipping expertise is non-existent) is that they'll end up on equal points if the Lions get a bonus point against the Bulls. Then its down to the rules on who tops the log, but as the Jags will be two wins ahead and the Lions only make it up due to bonus points, I would hope they take the biscuits.

The Bulls made the Sunwolves look good. A win for them in Sydney next Saturday would be a huge upset. That said, I reckon three of this week's games were huge upsets.

 

[swingpass]

I would have them as slight favourites. The Lions have only one game left (against the imploding Bulls, for whom tackling appears to be an optional extra). The Jags have two, both away, the hardest of which is the Sharks game in round 19. My best guess (remembering my tipping expertise is non-existent) is that they'll end up on equal points if the Lions get a bonus point against the Bulls. Then its down to the rules on who tops the log, but as the Jags will be two wins ahead and the Lions only make it up due to bonus points, I would hope they take the biscuits.

The Bulls made the Sunwolves look good. A win for them in Sydney next Saturday would be a huge upset. That said, I reckon three of this week's games were huge upsets.

thanks, like you i was half joking. i'm still not sure the Rebels will finish in the 8.

 

[Hawko]

thanks, like you i was half joking. i'm still not sure the Rebels will finish in the 8.

For the Rebels to miss the 8 they would have to lose to the Reds. After watching the Reds against the Blues I don't think that's a realistic possibility, given the quality of their performance against the Tahs. For the Rebels, finals football is almost a sure thing for the first time ever.

 

[Eyes and Ears]

[quote="Hawko, post: 1018985, member: 1905"That means the Rebels are away to the Crusaders and the Waratahs at home to the Highlanders. The Highlanders are the Waratahs bogey team, especially at the SFS, and I wouldn't give tuppence for their chances ).[/quote]

Tahs beat the Highlanders at the SFS this season. The red card helped but I woul have backed the Tahs to win that night without the card.

 

[Braveheart81]

The current standings are as follows with two weeks to go:

Crusaders - 54 - Hig (H), Blu (H)
Lions - 41 - bye, Bul (H)
Waratahs - 39 - Sun (H), Bru (H)
Hurricanes - 45 Blu (H), Chi (A)
Chiefs - 41 - Bru (H), Hur (H)
Highlanders - 40 - Cru (A), Reb (H)
Jaguares - 38 - Bul (A), Sha (A)
Rebels - 35 - Red (A), Hig (A)
Sharks - 32 - Sto (A), Jag (H)
Brumbies - 29 - Chi (A), War (A)

The week 17 results certainly threw a proverbial cat amongst the pigeons.

The Crusaders now are odds unbackable favourites to top the ladder. The Chiefs are now an outside shot of finishing above the Hurricanes as the two teams meet in Hamilton in the final week and hosting a quarter final.

The Brumbies now have a mathematical chance to make it after a shock win over the Hurricanes.

The Jaguares have a decent shot at topping the South African conference although they need to win away twice in South Africa. They are on a helluva roll though.

The Waratahs are favourites to finish second with two home games they'll start substantial favourites in to finish the regular season.

The Rebels must beat the Reds away this weekend otherwise they could miss the finals.

 

[Brumby Runner]

The Waratahs are favourites to finish second with two home games they'll start substantial favourites in to finish the regular season.

The Brumbies are gunning for your Tahs BH.

Won't know if it's with an RPG or a popgun until after the Chiefs game.

Brumbies are a mathematical chance for the finals, but are the only side in the finals race who have to play two teams above them on the ladder. Will be tough.

 

[Braveheart81]

and the Waratahs at home to the Highlanders. The Highlanders are the Waratahs bogey team, especially at the SFS, and I wouldn't give tuppence for their chances. I guess Cheik will be happy as he gets more prep time before the Bledisloes but that didn't help us much last year.

I'm not too worried. As far as I'm concerned there is nothing but positives for the Waratahs to now control their own destiny and have a pathway of four home games to make the Super Rugby final.

Regardless of the opposition they're now in a position where if they're good enough they can give the competition a real shake. If we can't beat the Highlanders at home in the quarter final then I'm not sure we'd have been better off against the Lions or Jaguares or whoever else might have played against us.

 

[cyclopath]

I'm not too worried. As far as I'm concerned there is nothing but positives for the Waratahs to now control their own destiny and have a pathway of four home games to make the Super Rugby final.

Regardless of the opposition they're now in a position where if they're good enough they can give the competition a real shake. If we can't beat the Highlanders at home in the quarter final then I'm not sure we'd have been better off against the Lions or Jaguares or whoever else might have played against us.

Given the way the Tahs started the season, I'm just happy they are anywhere near the finals. And somewhat surprised.

 

[Rebels3]

Rebels really need to beat the Reds this week, the only thing they have going for them tho is the Sharks and Jags play each other in the last round.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Revised QF lineup after Week 18;

QF1 1. Crusaders v 8. Rebels
QF2 4. Hurricanes v 5. Chiefs
QF1 2. Lions v 7. Jaguares
QF1 3. Waratahs v 6. Highlanders

By my reckoning only the Sharks can crash the party by beating the Jags & Rebs losing to Clan. That said probably only the Crusaders & 'canes are certain to finish where they currently stand.

 

[Braveheart81]

Rebels given a life. They make the finals if they beat the Highlanders or the Jaguares beat the Sharks.

Tahs just need a win to finish second.

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[Hawko]

Rebels given a life. They make the finals if they beat the Highlanders or the Jaguares beat the Sharks.

Tahs just need a win to finish second.

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For the Tahs, a win is essential. They really need to get second so they can maintain a home semi-final and only have potentially one game away.

I think the Jags might get the win; it'll be desperation stakes for both teams and a real 50-50 bet. But the Sharks have shown that they lose the games they should win (like vs Stormers) and are at their best when they are underdogs.

On their Friday night form the Rebels will not beat the Clan. The Reds were poor and the Rebels worse. My reading of it is that the loss to the Waratahs the week before just sapped their morale completely. But they are not out of it if they get a losing bonus point. Then, its off to the rule books to see how to resolve the points deadlock.

I can see the Brumbies possibly beating the Tahs, but I can't see them getting a three-try bonus point, so I reckon they are out of it.

For me it will be CRU, WAR, LIO, HUR, CHI, HIG, JAG, REB. The delicious thing about that scenario is that we would get another crack at the Jags after the shellacking they gave us in Argentina, then either the Lions or the Clan. I don't fear either of those two alternatives at the SFS and both teams will be crossing the Indian Ocean to play. Then, if the Hurricanes/Chiefs can toss the Crusaders we can play the final at the SFS too. All the karma seems to be going our way right now.

 

[cyclopath]

For the Tahs, a win is essential. They really need to get second so they can maintain a home semi-final and only have potentially one game away.

I think the Jags might get the win; it'll be desperation stakes for both teams and a real 50-50 bet. But the Sharks have shown that they lose the games they should win (like vs Stormers) and are at their best when they are underdogs.

On their Friday night form the Rebels will not beat the Clan. The Reds were poor and the Rebels worse. My reading of it is that the loss to the Waratahs the week before just sapped their morale completely. But they are not out of it if they get a losing bonus point. Then, its off to the rule books to see how to resolve the points deadlock.

I can see the Brumbies possibly beating the Tahs, but I can't see them getting a three-try bonus point, so I reckon they are out of it.

For me it will be CRU, WAR, LIO, HUR, CHI, HIG, JAG, REB. The delicious thing about that scenario is that we would get another crack at the Jags after the shellacking they gave us in Argentina, then either the Lions or the Clan. I don't fear either of those two alternatives at the SFS and both teams will be crossing the Indian Ocean to play. Then, if the Hurricanes/Chiefs can toss the Crusaders we can play the final at the SFS too. All the karma seems to be going our way right now.

There are some karma unicorns in that post! A LOT has to fall our way. But you never know.