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Super Rugby AU - Semi Final - Reds v Reb

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
Both teams so we have them in one place:

REDS (1-15):
Harry Hoopert, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Taniela Tupou, Angus Blyth, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Liam Wright (c), Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott, James O'Connor, Filpo Daugunu, Hamish Stewart, Jordan Petaia, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Jock Campbell

Reserves: Alex Mafi, JP Smith, Jack Straker, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Angus Scott-Young, Moses Sorovi, Bryce Hegarty, Hunter Paisami

REBELS (1-15): Cameron Orr, Jordan Uelese, Jermaine Ainsley, Matt Philip, Trevor Hosea, Brad Wilkin, Richard Hardwick, Isi Naisarani, Frank Lomani, Matt To'omua, Marika Koroibete, Bill Meakes, Reece Hodge, Andrew Kellaway, Dane Haylett-Petty (c)
Reserves: Efitusi Ma'afu, Cabous Eloff, Matt Gibbon, Michael Stolberg, Rob Leota, Theo Strang, Andrew Deegan, Campbell Magney
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
I think the Rebels starting To'omua at 10 is a massive mistake, Deegan makes them a much better team even if he's a worse player. The Rebels have been forced to match the Reds in the back row, but I don't think that will slow down the Reds too much. I don't see too many positions where the Rebels can really get an advantage over the Reds. Scrum should be dominated by the Reds, lineout is a wash, mauls should be advantage Reds. The Reds backs match up well against the Rebels too O'Connor vs To'omua, Stewart vs Meakes, CFS vs Koro, Daugunu vs Kellaway should all be pretty even, but I see 13 being a real point of difference, Jordie an out and out 13 up against the very good but ultimately utility player in Hodge should be a real point of difference.

Then in the Forwards I think Willson's defence probably closes most of the difference between he and Isi, Reds easily win the flanker battle. LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) should have the wood on Phillip and Blyth should at worst account for the impressive Hosea. And the Reds front row ought to be superior to the Rebs.

Even if we expect the Rebels to really step up from lasts week slug fest with the Force, I don't see too many paths to the Rebels winning. And that's before we consider the crazy good form the Reds are in right now.
 

Derpus

Nathan Sharpe (72)
^^^
You've written something i can actually agree with. The Rebels look way better to me with Deegan at 10. You can't just keep rotating halves every time one has a below average game and expect to build any kind of form.

Not convinced the Reds are in 'crazy good form' yet. There are very promising signs but 3/5 is only marginally better than the average SRau form, and included an absolute thumping from the Tahs.

Any word on the Rebels travel obligations?
 

Dctarget

Tim Horan (67)
I think the Rebels starting To'omua at 10 is a massive mistake, Deegan makes them a much better team even if he's a worse player.


Couple things zero:

- Deegan started at 10 in the Rebels loss 3-18 to the Reds and their 32-38 loss to the 'Tahs, I was less than impressed with then. Don't think him on the bench is such a crime.

- I wouldn't be so quick to assume the Reds lineout will fire. Reds have had the weaker lineout more times than not this season. I really rate Philip this season and Hosea is a future Wallaby, it'll be more even than you say.

- Scrum should dominate largely due to Tupou. Man for man, I'd take Orr and Uelese over Ainsley and BPA respectively.
 

Mick The Munch

Bill McLean (32)
Couple things zero:

- Deegan started at 10 in the Rebels loss 3-18 to the Reds and their 32-38 loss to the 'Tahs, I was less than impressed with then. Don't think him on the bench is such a crime.

- I wouldn't be so quick to assume the Reds lineout will fire. Reds have had the weaker lineout more times than not this season. I really rate Philip this season and Hosea is a future Wallaby, it'll be more even than you say.

- Scrum should dominate largely due Tupou. Man for man, I'd take Orr and Uelese over Ainsley and BPA respectively.


I think Eloff and Gibbon offer more coming off the bench
 

TSR

Andrew Slack (58)
Also didn’t realise CFS and Koroibete were of similar standard. Always learn something on these threads each day.
Fair enough - but if your going to take that line on it the you’d also have to concede (IMO) that he was being generous to Kellaway & Meakes in recent form.

Both teams have the cattle, it just depends on which version of both teams turns up. If the best of both teams turns up it’ll be an absolute cracker and very even.
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
Yeah, I was more averaging out the differences. But I do think CFS is a players who could trouble Koro as much as anyone he's got enough size to be able to trouble him, and unlike most who have that size, CFS is probably (just) quick enough too. as TSR pointed out and advantage to Koro is washed out by the likely similar advantage Kellaway is giving up to Daugunu. Although the Stewart Meakes match up could be interesting.
 

PhilClinton

Mark Loane (55)
Meakes v Stewart will be good.

There were calls for Meakes to be making his Wobs debut over the last few years, whereas Stewart has just toiled away in largely a similar capacity with no real accolades. Personally I don't see either of them as international standard but Stewart's combo with JOC (James O'Connor) in both defense and attack should make the difference.
 

Dctarget

Tim Horan (67)
Meakes v Stewart will be good.

There were calls for Meakes to be making his Wobs debut over the last few years, whereas Stewart has just toiled away in largely a similar capacity with no real accolades. Personally I don't see either of them as international standard but Stewart's combo with JOC (James O'Connor) in both defense and attack should make the difference.

Jeez, don't think even the most ardent Rebels fans were calling for Meakes to make Gold.
 

PhilClinton

Mark Loane (55)
Jeez, don't think even the most ardent Rebels fans were calling for Meakes to make Gold.


Have a look at some of the Wobs threads from 2018/19 (I can't be bothered to be honest). Meakes was playing consistent footy, and as mentioned above, it's not like the centers combos have been a strong point in the last few years.

I personally wouldn't have him within watching distance of any squads this year.
 

Rebels3

Jim Lenehan (48)
WB squad is weak at 2 and 12 (as well as locks). Any opportunity for these two to shine is important.
These two battling out for 4th choice 12. To'omua and now Kerevi ahead (even JOC (James O'Connor)). Then Simone.... then these two. Stewart’s age obviously means he has time to move up the ranks
 

Sully

Tim Horan (67)
Staff member
Kerevi has been sitting on his arse in Brisbane for months. I'd rather see To'omua with meakes or Stewart as backup before him.
 
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