Super Rugby 2016 Top Eights

[waiopehu oldboy]

TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 10

There are now two Conference leaders outside the top four as ranked by Table Points/ Games Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking):

1. Chiefs 37/ 8/ 117 (1)
2. Crusaders 32/ 7/ 97 (5)
3. Hurricanes 31/ 6/ 93 (6)
4. Stormers 29/ 6/ 90 (2)
5. Bulls 28/ 6/ 77 (7)
6. Highlanders 28/ 6/ 69 (8)
7. Lions 27/ 6/ 33 (3)
8. Rebels 23/ 5/ -15 (4)

Official Rankings:

1. Chiefs: New Zealand Conference leader
2. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
4. Rebels: Australian Conference leader
5. Crusaders: Australasian wildcard
6. Hurricanes: Australasian wildcard
7. Bulls: African wildcard
8. Highlanders: Australasian wildcard

HOME v AWAY

A 5-3 Round sees Home regain the lead 38-36.

INTER-CONFERENCE STATS

NZ v Africa 13/15 (87%)
NZ v Australia 11.5/14 (82%)
Africa v Australia 5/10
Australia v Africa 5/10
Australia v NZ 2.5/14,(18%)
Africa v NZ 2/15 (13%)

NZ v others 24.5/29 (84%)
Australia v others 7.5/24 (31%)
Africa v others 7/25 (28%)

 

[Hawko]

I vote we abandon this thread, the stats are altogether too disappointing to be on a family-friendly website such as ours. They inevitably lead to much swearing and cursing in two large countries and heaps of smug, self satisfied commentary in the other.

As it stands right now, the Lions have a home final despite being behind the Bulls on the points rankings.

Whichever team comes fourth at the end (probably the Waratahs at this stage) will either get the Chiefs or the Crusaders in the quarter final. I'm hoping that the Stormers have their usual disastrous road trip, but they have got a really easy couple of games in the Rebels and the Force. You'd think the Tahs best chance of third is for the Lions to lose several more; which is what has to happen if the Tahs are to avoid the Crusaders/Chiefs in the quarters. Last round of the comp might be so important for the final positions - Lions are away to the Jaguares, Chiefs are away to the Highlanders, Hurricanes are away to the Crusaders and the Waratahs are away to the Blues.

I hate this conference structure. Its so biased to the South African teams.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Yeah, it's getting to the point where the Inter-Conference stats are what they are & will most likely remain so. I'll still keep track of them but probably not bother posting them until the regular season is over, unless of course something remarkable happens.

I'm really intrigued by the Home v Away stat which going by previous years should be more like 49-25 than 38-36 & I'm thinking that this needs some digging into in terms of who is losing at home/ winning away so frequently as to skew the numbers so much.

Pretty sure I've posted elsewhere I don't have an issue with the top African team hosting a QF, but if they only finish 3rd or 4th that's where they should be seeded. Similarly by all means have the other African & Australasian Conference winners in the QF but seed them where they finish:

QF1: Chiefs v Rebels
QF2: Crusaders v Rebels
QF3: Hurricanes v Highlanders
QF4: Stormers v Bulls

Instead of Chiefs v Highlanders, Stormers v Bulls, Lions v Hurricanes, Rebels v Crusaders.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Waratahs haven't helped the home and away stat by losing 3 from 4 at home and winning 3 from 4 away.

 

[Braveheart81]

Pretty sure I've posted elsewhere I don't have an issue with the top African team hosting a QF, but if they only finish 3rd or 4th that's where they should be seeded. Similarly by all means have the other African & Australasian Conference winners in the QF but seed them where they finish:

QF1: Chiefs v Rebels
QF2: Crusaders v Rebels
QF3: Hurricanes v Highlanders
QF4: Stormers v Bulls

Instead of Chiefs v Highlanders, Stormers v Bulls, Lions v Hurricanes, Rebels v Crusaders.

What's the advantage then of winning your conference?

Sporting leagues the world over advantage teams that win their division or conference over teams that finish second or lower in theirs regardless of the overall record.

If Super Rugby was to change the system and make it purely competition points hey'd need to do away with conferences and have everyone play each other once (or even miss some teams if it is to remain 15 games).

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

1. A guaranteed home QF if you win your Group & a guaranteed QF if you win your Conference but not your Group. Home advantage should be earned on the field IMO.

2. True but when you've got three expansion teams in a Group containing two fewer teams than the other, it goes some way to mitigating the imbalance IMO.

3.Conferences per se aren't the issue its devising a regular-season draw & Finals series that's equitable, esp given given 2. above.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 11

For the first time since Round 6 a Conference leader, namely the Brumbies, are not in the Top 8 as ranked by Table Points/ Matches Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking in brackets):

1. Crusaders 37/ 8/ 130 (1)
2. Chiefs 37/ 8/ 104 (5)
3. Highlanders 32/ 7/ 82 (6)
4. Hurricanes 31/ 6/ 76 (7)
5. Stormers 29/ 6/ 90 (2)
6. Bulls 28/ 6/ 60 (8)
7. Lions 27/ 6/ 33 (3)
8. Sharks 26/ 5/ 35 (9)

By this metric the Brumbies are 9th on PD from the Waratahs, both having 25 TP but the Brumbies 6 wins to the 'tahs 5. Sharks fans will no doubt feel aggrieved.........

Official Rankings:

1. Crusaders: New Zealand Conference leader
2. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
4. Brumbies: Australian Conference leader
5. Chiefs: Australasian wildcard
6. Highlanders: Australasian wildcard
7. Hurricanes: Australasian wildcard
8. Bulls: African wildcard

HOME v AWAY

While analysing home & away results I found that the running tally is actually Home 42-41 Away.

Teams with the worst Home records are the Sunwolves, Kings & Force, all with 5 losses. The only team unbeaten at home are the Bulls. Every NZ side bar the Chiefs has had one home loss & of the Australian sides the Rebels & Brumbies have each had two.

The Chiefs have 5 Away wins, the Lions & Crusaders 4 each. The only teams without an away win are the Sunwolves, Kings & Reds. The best travelling Australian sides are the Brumbies, Waratahs & Rebels with three away wins each.

INTER-CONFERENCE STATS

As noted last week, the trends are well set & unlikely to change so while I'm still collecting them I'll only post them at season end or if something remarkable happens.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 12

Same eight teams by either metric but in very different orders:

By Table Points/ Matches Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking)

1. Crusaders 37/ 8/ 122 (1)
2. Chiefs 37/ 8/ 104 (5)
3. Highlanders 37/ 8/ 90 (6)
4. Hurricanes 36/ 7/ 91 (7)
5. Lions 32/ 7/ 71 (2)
6. Stormers 31/ 6/ 90 (3)
7. Waratahs 30/ 6/ 67 (4)
8. Sharks 30/ 6/ 38 (8)

Official Rankings:

1. Crusaders: New Zealand Conference leader
2. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
3. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
4. Waratahs: Australian Conference leader
5. Chiefs: Australasian wildcard
6. Highlanders: Australasian wildcard
7. Hurricanes: Australasian wildcard
8. Sharks: African wildcard

Almost unbelievably, the "if it ended today" QF match ups are identical but with venues reversed for all but Crusaders v Sharks.

HOME v AWAY

A 5-2 Round for Home sees them out to 47-43 with three draws.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 13

Top Eight by Table Points/ Matches Won/ Points Differential (official Ranking in brackets):

1. Chiefs 42/9/125 (1)
2. Crusaders 41/9/141 (5)
3. Lions 37/8/99 (2)
4. Highlanders 37/8/90 (6)
5. Hurricanes 36/7/91 (7)
6. Sharks 35/7/91 (8)
7. Bulls 32/7/41 (3)
8. Stormers 32/6/86 (9)

By this metric the Waratahs are ninth. This is only the second week there has been no Australian team in the Top 8 by this metric (Brumbies were also ninth after Round 11).

Official Top Eight:

1. Chiefs - New Zealand Conference leader
2. Lions - Africa 2 Conference leader
3. Bulls - Africa 1 Conference leader
4. Waratahs - Australian Conference leader
5. Crusaders - Australasian wildcard
6. Highlanders - Australasian wildcard
7. Hurricanes - Australasian wildcard
8. Sharks - Australasian wildcard

HOME v AWAY

Away teams won just one of seven this week, stretching Home teams advantage to 53-44.