Subbies 2021

[BundyBear]

PFitzy how do you see Division 4 panning out? I am throwing a bomb here but I would tip:

1) Redfield (Based on the drop down, it should be comfortable).
2) Canterbury (Always there)
3) Manly Savers (Strong side as well as great numbers)
4-5) Renegades and Saints (Can't really split)
6) Macquarie Uni (Continuing to get better)
7) Harbour (Moving up to fast)
8) Oatley (On the decline).

 

[Pfitzy]

PFitzy how do you see Division 4 panning out? I am throwing a bomb here but I would tip:

Hard to tell due to COVID making for a weird 2020 in the form guide. The longer season will mean more attrition, and some of the clubs above are coming into 2 Grades for the first time (e.g. Savers) or after bouncing back from 1 (e.g. Oatley).

I don't know what sort of shape Redfield are in but you don't drop 2 Divisions when you're healthy - some clubs bounce back, some continue to suffer. They know how to play rugby tho so I wouldn't bet against them.

I also think Sydney Harbour will do alright. I've seen them play finals and beat some useful teams in the lower divisions.

I need to see how Week 1 pans out before making any predictions, mind...

 

[Heavyd]

Div 2

St Pats vs Breakers: A tough first up assignment for newly promoted Newport. St Pats to have too much first up with Newport notorious slow starters, notoriously poor travellers and 25+ players unavailable. St Pats by 20?
Hills vs Lindfield: No idea but will go with the home side based on last years result.
UNSW vs Epping: UNSW were the surprise packet of 2020 and will win this comfortably.
HH vs Bobs: Yikes, HH by plenty. I'm still unsure how a clearly DIV 1 club was allowed to stay in Div 2 after destroying everyone last year and will do it again this year? Does anyone one know why Subbies approved this?

All eyes will be on the Breakers over the first few rounds to see how they handle the step up. Player numbers are reportly solid with some new recruits, an outstanding coaching roster and strong administration team. How they travel will play a big roll in their season but if Newport are competitive opposing teams can expect vocal crowds of 1000-1500 awaiting them at Porters reserve.

 

[Professional 23]

Hard to tell due to COVID making for a weird 2020 in the form guide. The longer season will mean more attrition, and some of the clubs above are coming into 2 Grades for the first time (e.g. Savers) or after bouncing back from 1 (e.g. Oatley).

I don't know what sort of shape Redfield are in but you don't drop 2 Divisions when you're healthy - some clubs bounce back, some continue to suffer. They know how to play rugby tho so I wouldn't bet against them.

I also think Sydney Harbour will do alright. I've seen them play finals and beat some useful teams in the lower divisions.

I need to see how Week 1 pans out before making any predictions, mind.

Not only that there 1st grade destroyed everyone but their second grade were probably the second best team in div 2 last year. I really can't understand why they are allowed to stay in div 2. Makes for a difficult year for the other teams knowing you are just making up the numbers

 

[Heavyd]

Knox appear to be in for a world of hurt this year. They only fielded a 1s, 2 and Colts v St Pats in a trial last week. They lost colts narrowly and were convincingly beaten in 1s and 2s. I'm led to believe they only have 1s, 2s and colts playing against Waverley tomorrow with round 1 forfeits in the lower grades. Not sure what the story is at Knox but there are a number of Div 2 candidates (not just Hunters Hill) who would be more competitive and suited to Div 1 than Knox.

Great to have subbies rugby back this weekend![/quote


If that’s the case then allowing Hunters to stay in DIV 2 is an even bigger joke. Pathetic

 

[Pfitzy]

I'm led to believe they only have 1s, 2s and colts playing against Waverley tomorrow with round 1 forfeits in the lower grades.

Confirmed - looking at the team sheets now. Could be a number of reasons of course, including School Holidays playing a part. Just have to wait for subsequent weeks I guess.

Worth noting that Knox aren't contesting Sutherland Cup (5s) and Waverley therefore have 3 Grades to spare by the looks. Yet they're only playing 1 Halligan Cup game against "Colleagues 7s" aka Convicts at 2PM on Woollahra #3. Interesting...

Hills and Lindfield are playing 5 Grades at the Yatt, and Hunters Hill have enough to play their 5s our 3s at Boronia.

Colleagues, Mosman and Hunters Hill have both entered Radford Cup with their spare Colts sides, and Mosman would have probably had 3 Colts teams if the numbers were needed. Uni of Wollongong were there the other day but must have dropped out.

 

[Fat Pigeon]

Hello

 

[BundyBear]

Division 2

Hunters hill over Barker - Hunters Hill to win 40+ in 1s+2s, and 30+ in 3s+4s. HH to win 4 grades (Colts to Barker).
St Pats over Newport - St Pats to win by 15. Newport will hang in their but Pats will have too much Speed and Size. Lower grades will be mixed.
UNSW over Epping - UNSW win comfortably 30+ in 1s. UNSW have recruited strongly and I expect them to win all grades.
Hills over Lindfield - Hills by 5. Lindfield will be the biggest movers this year with the strongest 1st grade side they have put on the park in a number of years, but Hills will hold on. Lindfield to win all other grades except 1st.

100% tipping for Round 1.

I watched 10 minutes of the Hunters Hill vs Barker game and it is clear Hunters Hill are a force. They have very strong forwards and speedy backs. They will be hard to beat this year. In comparison, Barker look completely out of their depth and are in for a long year.

St Pats were very classy and wore down Newport. I thought Newport were brave and the score didn't reflect the game in the end. I think Newport could win some games this year and I was impressed to see Newports results in lower graders (although I have not seen them).

UNSW were too good for Epping. I thought Epping looked disorganised and didn't have much in attack. I don't expect either of these teams to contend from what I viewed.

Hills will have another good year this season. Lindfield have a young squad and do look better, but I go back on my original call they will be the biggest movers this year.

Round 1 Summary: Hunters Hill -----> St Pats/Hills -----> UNSW/Newport/Lindfield ----> Epping/Barker

 

[Heavyd]

Is it too late for Tim Richards and Co to admit they have got this badly wrong and make the change now?

The writing was on the wall for Knox last year with them failing to field 3s and 4s. What changed in the off season to justify their remaining in Division 1. Now round one they have picked up where they left off and will struggle to see out the year with injuries sure to decimate there 3 sides they can field. This isn’t a shot at their players who are putting in for the jersey and their mates.

Is this another example of club administrations not wanting to take their medicine, drop a Div and rebuild. It’s best to control your own descent than stubbornly hang on only to see the club implode and drop multiple divs. Think Kings, Brothers, Balmain etc.

Maybe I’m wrong and the club had a wedding which lead to 50 players away?

Is it too late to sub Hunters for Knox to right what could be a comedy for Subbies with clubs making a mockery of the competition.

 

[Heavyd]

Heavyd, what is the quality of Knox 1st grade?

I know it is only a trial but when Waves played Hunters Hill in a trial, Waves ended up getting their 6 tries to 4, but it was an even encounter for most of the game. The Hunters side yesterday looked fairly stronger so I would be suprised if they were not making finals in at least 1st Grade Division 1.

When clubs like Knox and BOBS can only field 2 senior grades it doesnt mean they are fielding traditional 1st and 2nd level grade teams. Essentially they are teams put together with what ever cattle is still around which are generally good clubman who will do anything to help out and many could be lower grade players. Putting them in harms way against signifcantly stronger competition could lead to serious injury. Lets hope this does not happen but surely subbies have a duty of care. I'd be surprised if both Knox and BOBs are still fieldings 1s,2s and Colts be mid season. Player attrition will eventually catch up with them. I hope I'm way wrong.

 

[Heavyd]

100% tipping for Round 1.

I watched 10 minutes of the Hunters Hill vs Barker game and it is clear Hunters Hill are a force. They have very strong forwards and speedy backs. They will be hard to beat this year. In comparison, Barker look completely out of their depth and are in for a long year.

St Pats were very classy and wore down Newport. I thought Newport were brave and the score didn't reflect the game in the end. I think Newport could win some games this year and I was impressed to see Newports results in lower graders (although I have not seen them).

UNSW were too good for Epping. I thought Epping looked disorganised and didn't have much in attack. I don't expect either of these teams to contend from what I viewed.

Hills will have another good year this season. Lindfield have a young squad and do look better, but I go back on my original call they will be the biggest movers this year.

Round 1 Summary: Hunters Hill -----> St Pats/Hills -----> UNSW/Newport/Lindfield ----> Epping/Barker

I think Div 2 looks like a fairly even comp with Hunters the clear favourites.

Newport I feel would be reasonably happy with their first up effort and confident they will be competitive across the grades. Good wins in 3s and 4s and they should have really won 2nds comfortably. A length of the field intercept and then a charge down let St Pats off the hook. Colts have some work to do and 1sts put in a very ordinary performance. I dont think they won a lineout in 80 mins. That said the scrum was ok and they have the backline talent when on capable of piling on plenty of points. With 25+ players back this week there is even talk of a 5th grade. Hills can expect plenty of tough rugby at the Portress.

 

[meatpie]

Some pretty standard results across the board. Good to see Newport give it a red hot crack in Div2. Any live reports from across the grounds?

 

[Pfitzy]

When clubs like Knox and BOBS can only field 2 senior grades it doesnt mean they are fielding traditional 1st and 2nd level grade teams. Essentially they are teams put together with what ever cattle is still around which are generally good clubman who will do anything to help out and many could be lower grade players. Putting them in harms way against signifcantly stronger competition could lead to serious injury.

And once those guys are gone, your club is gone - or on a very long road to rebuild.

Kings Old Boys, for example.

 

[Pfitzy]

Some pretty standard results across the board. Good to see Newport give it a red hot crack in Div2. Any live reports from across the grounds?

I played 2s against Saints and they didn't have many subs by the looks. We didn't see the ball for 15 minutes, going down 6-0 and with an early yellow card for dissent on a high tackle. Still, the scrum was pretty willing and the lineouts well contested. We just had the size and a bit of pace to run them ragged ONCE we held onto the ball for more than a couple of phases. A few of the new guys are ex-league so I and the hooker ended up covering a LOT of rucks. Renegades 33-20

Firsts was a pretty even contest with a lot of our guys playing together for the first time, and missing our first-choice props and halfback. We made some silly errors though (3 kicks out on the full from just outside our 22 late in the 2nd half) to take away any pressure we were mounting. Saints have a gun #8 and excellent pace in their back three, but we got the 4th try to at least kick off with a point. Renegades 22-31 tho a couple of those silly errors probably cost us the match.

Canterbury looked to be lacking numbers - last year for most of the season they had an awesome Fijian group playing 2s but they weren't there every week. Savers did them in 2s and towelled them in 1s.

Redfield 1s took care of Mac Uni with their reputedly excellent fullback scoring 2 tries. Second Grade was closer but neither Redfield team was drowning in numbers. Will be interesting to get a look at them next Saturday.

The Oysters crushed Oatley, unsurprisingly, and probably won't have the numbers to do 2 grades as it turns out. TBH their first grade could just play as 15 and do most teams by the break. Even if they could just get 13 on for half a game of 2s it would help. They looked too strong for Jeffrey Cup last year and will probably make finals this year in Fourth Div.

Halligan Cup games are going to become important if they can't run out 2s with regularity, and like Mosman helping Barker, I think someone like Colleagues or Convicts will have to fill that hole.

 

[Pfitzy]

Is it too late for Tim Richards and Co to admit they have got this badly wrong and make the change now?

There certainly appears to be a disconnect in how these clubs are shaping up pre-season.

The issue is First Division top clubs (Whales, Colleagues, Drummoyne, Waverley) get further away from everyone else every year. Probably Drummoyne is the only one who isn't in sight of a 6th Grade right now, of those 4, but you know they'll probably be around come finals time across multiple grades.

Meanwhile, other divisions have clubs that continue to struggle just to field teams and not ship 50 points. They don't have the financial resources, decades-long history, juniors, local school, or Eastern Suburbs Rugby Cognoscenti sustaining them.

Subbies can't stop clubs the size of Mosman doing basically what they want, and I'm not here saying we punish their success at all, but what happens when, in a decade, Subbies is down to 20 clubs in 3 Divisions while the Big 4 bitch they can't get a game for their Colts 5s or 9th Grade?

 

[Rugby Ref]

There certainly appears to be a disconnect in how these clubs are shaping up pre-season.

Subbies can't stop clubs the size of Mosman doing basically what they want, and I'm not here saying we punish their success at all, but what happens when, in a decade, Subbies is down to 20 clubs in 3 Divisions while the Big 4 bitch they can't get a game for their Colts 5s or 9th Grade?

Pfitzy, assuming clubs like Mosman only get stronger, is it worth considering promoting them to premier rugby, and letting Penrith re-establish themselves in Subbies 1st Div? Looking at the 1sts grade team for Mosman, they are mostly ex-1st XV schoolboys from 4-5 years back who have then played grade - and now have returned to play with their mates at Mosman.... thoughts?

 

[Pfitzy]

Pfitzy, assuming clubs like Mosman only get stronger, is it worth considering promoting them to premier rugby, and letting Penrith re-establish themselves in Subbies 1st Div? Looking at the 1sts grade team for Mosman, they are mostly ex-1st XV schoolboys from 4-5 years back who have then played grade - and now have returned to play with their mates at Mosman.. thoughts?

This is a multi-part discussion - here is Part 1:

1) Penrith aren't in any kind of shape for Premier Rugby, straight off the bat. In Round 1 Norths did them 95-5 in 2s and 73-zip in 1s. Colts 2 was 19-zip and Colts 1 was 85-10. It isn't going to get better, IMHO. We see this for Two Blues and Pirates as well - both Shute Shield grades have shipped 50 points every outing, and you're not going to outscore your opponents at that point, particularly when your 2nd Grade are also getting pumped. So they can't stay in Premier Rugby, really.

2) Penrith don't have the numbers for Subbies Div 1 at the moment i.e. 4 Grades + Colts. They haven't for years, and I've seen the team sheets where nearly whole teams are backing up from 4s through to 2s because those are the competition requirements. Even if they DID find the numbers, the depth and quality isn't there, because big clubs are hoovering up all the talent either at Premier or Subbies level.

3) Premier is semi-pro, while Subbies is amateur - at least in name and spirit, tho the rumours persist. Emus are charging nearly $500 for registration this year, and as a player in that area I'd rather go play for Western Raptors TBH. Let's face it: Mosman have the money to go Premier if they want to, but they probably don't want to (see point 5)

4) Those players who have been to Grade then gone back to other clubs (Mosman, Drummoyne, Petersham etc) are doing it precisely because they DON'T want to play Premier any more, or train like Premier players any more. Years ago before Subbies were stated amateur, there was money in the Subbies game and several Premier players landed at various Subbies clubs - even played against a couple of them.

5) Mosman et al probably don't want the rigours of Premier Rugby, because they are perfectly happy where they are. They've got healthy numbers, great club culture, facilities, sponsors, and a crack at being the best in First Division every year. Why do anything different?

 

[Pfitzy]

Discussion part 2: Perhaps as a first step, Penrith could go into a lower division Subbies somewhere in order to take some pressure off. Certainly having 13 teams in a Premier Comp is a bit silly as it creates bye rounds which are always crap IMHO.

While I'm certain that Two Blues and West Harbour want to stay where they are, I've also got questions over their depth, longevity, and ability to do more than contest each other and spring the odd upset. These are just facts. Gordon were also on struggle street a few years ago but turned it around because their depth was actually not half bad, and they got the right coach and right bunch of players together.

As we've already seen, some Subbies clubs are struggling right now (Knox, Old Barker, Redfield) while others are pushing upward at a rate of knots (Raptors, Newport). We've got one Division with less than 8 clubs (Sixth/Meldrum) and some divisions that aren't fielding their traditional number of teams (Fourth, Fifth/Jeffrey).

How does rugby sand off these rough edges while filling out the holes? (I've just been doing some paint / plaster repair work, so handyman analogies are top of mind )

Telling clubs they can't field more than X teams or register players would be seen as a retrograde move. Certainly would be very unpopular with top clubs. I raised the idea of mentoring programs previously and still think it has merit. I also think clubs need to concentrate on volunteers just as much as they do playing stocks, because one of the big reasons clubs fail is volunteers getting jack of it all when the players just front up for the game and piss off after.

Some big clubs have the same problems as little clubs: they've got a volunteer-to-player ratio that is unfavourable (they just have more of each). This year I noticed a lot of clubs struggling to recruit coaches. Referee recruitment is always tough due to the shit they have to put up with.

The whole game at amateur level is treading water, and THEN being asked to pay $50 a head (roughly) to the higher powers just for the privilege of participating in rugby. Our club will collect about $6k in player rego (hopefully!) but pay about $12k to field 3 Grades - $7K of which is insurance, and $3K goes straight to Moore Park.

That isn't right, when we're trying to keep fees affordable at < $200 a head.

Waiting for grant money to come through be like

 

[Pfitzy]

Part 3: organisation.

We've got NSWRU as the parent of Sydney Rugby Union (SRU) and Suburban (NSWSRU), then SJRU (Juniors) and the schools are a separate entity altogether with their little paddling pools.

I've hammered this point again and again, but rugby is in NO position at any level to have these segregations and politics. It hurts the game on a tactical and strategic level. It is bad enough that the peak professional body (Waratahs) is rife with disagreement and agendas, but to have that filter down just shows how bad the rot is.

A severe case of Streamlining needs to break out across the rugby landscape, or the game will continue to peak and trough.

 

[sendit]

i don't quite understand why any of our clubs, Premier or Subbies, need so many grades, where did these arbitrary numbers come from? Why does a premier club need a 4th Grade, why does a subbies club like Mosman need a 5th grade side?

Our closest competitors in League don't do it, and their participation numbers are superior to ours