Springboks v Wallabies - Sunday 2 October 1am AEST - Loftus Versfeld

[Micheal]

Douglas has the highest ceiling?

He's got the worst running game and worst line out ability of the 4 that have been used as starters.

If anything he has the lowest ceiling.

Putting together another piece comparing the stats shown by Aussie 2nd rowers from the beginning of 2015 to now.

From what I can gather at this early stage you're right but you're also not.

He was the preferred 2nd row at the RWC, playing 428 minutes to Simmons 400 and Mumm's 286.

From the stats alone, he was by far the weakest ball carrier of the lot but by far the strongest / most effective defender. Interestingly enough, he barely carried the ball compared to Simmons / Mumm, with Mumm being the standout ball carrier.

Simmons was not too far off Douglas in terms of metres gained per carry if you control for the formers intercept against Argentina (this is under the assumption that in terms of the purpose of the study, the intercept is an anomaly and shouldn't be considered. 2nd rowers are selected for their carrying in tight and not their gallops after intercepts in open space).

In terms of penalties conceded, Simmons gave away 6 to Mumm's 5 and Douglas' 1. This comes turns out to be 0.0150 per minute for Simmons, 0.0175 per minute for Mumm and 0.0023 per minute for Douglas.

Therefore Simmons gives away penalties at ~6x the rate of Douglas and Mumm at ~7x.

More to come in the official write up tomorrow once I hand this assignment in at Uni.

Until then its back to betting against beta and its implications for optimal portfolio selection. How riveting.

Edit: does anyone know any reliable statistical databases for rugby matches other than ESPN? Its erratic as hell with the way it presents / defines metrics and I don't really trust it.

 

[Train Without a Station]

Michael, that's actually incorrect.

For the RWC Douglas ran 15 times for 8m in total. 0.5m/per carry.

Simmons ran 39 times for 74m in total. 1.9m/per carry.

If you wish to exclude his intercept, as there is no statistical confirmation of the distance, you need to exclude the entire game to be accurate. So excluding that game (7 runs for 33m in total) you get:

Simmons ran 32 times for 41m in total. 1.3m/per carry.

Over double the meters per carry, and double the amount of carries per game.

That's really in line with their entire careers where Douglas has regularly posted less than 1m per carry, and only one game with a high meters gained.

Douglas was average I think 1-2 more tackles per game but ran the ball around 3 times per game without any significant increase in ruck involvement.

Generally Simmons and Fardy were the highest for early involvement.

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/rwc-ruck-analysis-wallabies-v-all-blacks/

What it really shows is that Douglas does not seem to have a high ceiling. That doesn't mean he does not offer any value. He's just more of a role player. His role is grunt work. But to offer that, his work rate needs to be high enough and it's been off this season.

 

[Braveheart81]

Queenslanders tend to have high ceilings don't they? It's one of the things that really attracts people to them.

 

[Micheal]

I didn't mean to turn this into a Simmons vs. Douglas debate.

And please note I haven't finished my entire analysis (as suggested).

ESPN's stats indicate that against tier one opposition Douglas made 49 tackles, missed 1 over 334 minutes played. That's 0.1467 tackles per minute and a tackle completion rate of 98%.

Over 298 minutes played, Simmons made 37 tackles, missing 9. That's 0.1242 tackles per minute, with a 80.43% tackle completion rate.

Over 188 minutes played, Mumm made 31 tackles, missing 3. That's 0.1649 tackles per minute and a tackle completion rate of 91.18%.

In terms of Simmons intercept, theres plenty of footage online for me to simply figure out how far he ran. No need at all to exclude the whole game.

I'm also not considering stats against T2 teams in the main body of my discussion. I'll include them for a reference point, but the discrepancy between teams such as the ABs and teams such as Uruguay is too great for a clear comparison.

Also, please note that I didn't state I think Douglas has a 'high' ceiling. That makes it seem as if I've made a strong relative statement (e.g. Douglas' ceiling is considerably greater than the others).

Instead I said I think he has the 'highest ceiling', but I don't think its by much. I think when he's fit he offers great levels of physicality and work rate with little tradeoff around the park. For all the talk of his weakness in the lineout I'm yet to see it (I'm going see if I can grab some lineout stats).

From my perspective I simply think that Coleman / Douglas offer the most complete and competitive 2nd row pairing Australia could provide. I'm going to see if the stats back it up. I'm more than happy to be proved wrong.

I'm also hoping to include FF (Folau Fainga'a)'s analysis in my finished project.

 

[Groucho]

Well its some new guys, but not new caps. More often than not positional changes of some existing players.

The team is not right ATM. We are a long way behind where we were at the end of RWC. Why ?

I would be happy for consistency once Chek has honestly tried some blokes in different spots and THEN decided if the change was warranted. Classic examples are Hodge, Folau and DHP.

I just want the best players playing in their best positions without fear or favour.

We seem to say one thing but actions reflect mediocrity

Of course this is just my opinion. Others may think Chek (and his assistants) is doing an unbelievable job, should not be open to any criticism whatsoever.

False binary. There is a wide range of opinion between mediocrity and an unbelievable job. I doubt that anyone on here thinks he's doing an unbelievable job.

 

[Quick Hands]

False binary. There is a wide range of opinion between mediocrity and an unbelievable job. I doubt that anyone on here thinks he's doing an unbelievable job.

As a few of us have observed; he's the best available for the job and broadly speaking he's got the best available players in his squad. Even where people are advocating one player ahead of another, they mostly acknowledge that even their favourite has some shortcomings. (Which is why this year I have rarely ventured into who should be picked ahead of whom territory)

 

[Groucho]

I am just putting forward my POV.

For the record Braveheart, how doYOU think Cheika is going with his win/loss ratio, team selections, choice and retention of assistants, media communication, banter with other coaches like Jones, Hanson and Henry.

Although I'm not Braveheart, I'll answer regardlesss.

I'd say he's the best coach we've had since Eddie Jones, which isn't saying much, considering the dross we've had since then. I'd say he's a better coach than Jones was then, but Jones is better now. He's by far the best current candidate.

His win-loss record doesn't reflect that. To understand why, we need to look at reasons. First there was an emergency NH tour, where he took over the team mid-season under unprecedented circumstances. Then, this year, we had the misfortune to strike an England team who were simply better than us. On form only Genia would make that England back division, and their forwards aren't too shabby either. They deserve to be #2 in the world, and will give the AIGs a run at home.

Of course, there are people who will always conflate 'reasons' with 'excuses'. You can't grind an axe with a reason.

 

[Slim 293]

And let's not forget that our selection pool currently consists of 5 very average to poor Super Rugby teams...........

 

[Groucho]

And let's not forget that our selection pool currently consists of 5 very average to poor Super Rugby teams.....

Some of that is form. A whole bunch of our players started the year in a form slump and stayed there. They haven't suddenly become bad players.

And some is injury. All our top wingers. All our top 12s.

The Brumbies for example would've been a very different proposition with Speight, Tomane and Kuridrani firing all season as they have in the past, as would the Wallabies.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Yes, imagine if To'omua and Tomane had been available for the full England series. It might have turned out differently. Certainly the direction of our attack might have been different, which was one of our biggest issues.

 

[Lindommer]

Some careful interrogation of those in the know at Concord on Saturday arvo yielded the following intel:

• Sio IS carrying an injury, and I'm not talking about the usual ones pro footballers pick up over the course of a season. Scott really should be rested.
• Holloway won't be back until 2017 Super rugby, he needs to go through proper rehab after his shoulder operation.

 

[Highlander35]

Some careful interrogation of those in the know at Concord on Saturday arvo yielded the following intel:

• Sio IS carrying an injury, and I'm not talking about the usual ones pro footballers pick up over the course of a season. Scott really should be rested.
• Holloway won't be back until 2017 Super rugby, he needs to go through proper rehab after his shoulder operation.

That's gotta be very disappointing for Slipper (not being able to start over an injured player), Alaalatola (switching sides instead of replacing the injured loosehead) and Toby (not being able to crack the squad despite an injured loosehead)

 

[Pfitzy]

Fuck's sake, this has been pissing me off for a while, and Lindommer and I were discussing it on the weekend:

Please STOP QUOTING AN ENTIRE FUCKING ESSAY AND SAYING "Yeah mate I agree".

It fucks up my flow, particularly on a mobile device (for which, I'll note, we don't have a decent theme mods, or at least I haven't been told how to activate it). I suppose others don't like it, but let's worry about me.

Like the post (its the button with the thumb on it - not the one you shove up your arse), and refer to the user by name to give them an alert that you're lubed up and ready to go if they need a bit of the reverse swedish milkmaid for all their hard work.

Alternatively, hit the quote button, then chop out a crapload of the text between the quotation markers to get your message across.

 

[Highlander35]

Fuck's sake, this has been pissing me off for a while, and Lindommer and I were discussing it on the weekend:

Please STOP QUOTING AN ENTIRE FUCKING ESSAY AND SAYING "Yeah mate I agree".

It fucks up my flow, particularly on a mobile device (for which, I'll note, we don't have a decent theme mods, or at least I haven't been told how to activate it). I suppose others don't like it, but let's worry about me.

Like the post (its the button with the thumb on it - not the one you shove up your arse), and refer to the user by name to give them an alert that you're lubed up and ready to go if they need a bit of the reverse swedish milkmaid for all their hard work.

Alternatively, hit the quote button, then chop out a crapload of the text between the quotation markers to get your message across.

Fuck you Pfitzy.

Imma quote ALL the posts

 

[stoff]

He was easily kicking them from 60m out at sea level! At Pretoria he could probably slot a few from the 22!!

There is a video somewhere of him doing that at sea level, albeit wind assisted. Right conditions in Pretoria he could be banging over dropouts!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Pfitzy]

Fuck you Pfitzy.

Imma quote ALL the posts

Miserable Scots git. Why can't you be more like GunnerDownUnder?

 

[Highlander35]

Miserable Scots git. Why can't you be more like GunnerDownUnder?

I'd call him a posh Edinburgh wanker, but unfortunately I think he's a Caledonia man at heart.

 

[Pfitzy]

He is. We sat down and had a good chat on Saturday.

 

[ForceFan]

To assist the discussions on the No 8 position I gathered the key physical attributes for this position. Some well known names........

The only place I can find Sean McMahon as being 110kg is Wikipedia and it's beside a photo of Sean in 2014 when he was carrying a bit. He now appears leaner and certainly is well below a Pocock. At this stage I"ll keep to the Rebels and Wallabies/ARU (and almost everywhere else) 100kg. He is visibly lighter than McCalman and looks about the same as Hodgson and Hooper. I don't reckon his frame would be too healthy or handle 110kg. He would certainly lose a lot of his pace.

Top No 8s look to be a good mix of height and weight.

I reckon the Wallabies can develop some good options (Timani, Houston & Holloway) for No 8 in 2017 with more game time in this position, essential skills development (especially as a lineout option) and fitness.

 

[Lindommer]

Thanks for that, FF (Folau Fainga'a). I won't quote your excellent article, I'll agree with your points about weight. However, it'd seem McMahon "plays heavy" in his appearances at 8 this year, it'll be interesting how he goes against the Saffers at altitude.