Spring Tour - Wallaby Forwards - What do the stats tell me?

[ForceFan]

If you were the current coach, what would you say to each of these players to go and work on for the pre season.

I know that the current coach and I wouldn't agree on much but we do have one thing in common - neither of us has played at the elite level.

I saw little to indicate to me that Chieka in any way acknowledged that for many/most of the squad 2014 had been a very busy year - both physically and mentally. Hooper and the rest of the Waratahs in particular have done it tough and also had to live through Beale-gate, Link-gate etc.

However, I am very good at reading body language and what it told me over the last 3 weeks, since the Wales Test, is that the squad was over-trained and stale going into each Test. It's obvious in the training footage, the pre-game warm-ups, the start of the game, the handling errors and poor passes and lack of spark in the last 30 minutes. Cheika seemed to be trying to move too quickly on to many fronts . He didn't have enough time to make significant changes but that didn't stop him from trying. Reportedly the squad was "spent" by team selection day. In any sport I think it's better to have the players "fresher" than this.

Some players are broken and some have been broken for some time. For those who know Ben McCalman's normal presentation I suggest that he's carrying a bad shoulder and he appears to have lost a lot of his strong leg drive (suggest groin injury). Hence tackle counts and ruck engagements below normal and in most Tests he had a ~30 min "rest" period when he played wider and made most of his carries. He has probably been kept on the pitch with sports strapping and pain killers. Dog is a workhorse who will give his all (but I'm concerned at what cost to Ben and to the Western Force). Simmons flew home with an injured shoulder.

So recommendations for the pre-season?

1. All squad get away from rugby for at least 4 weeks, preferably 6 weeks, before entering pre-season - that will still give the guys 4 weeks before the first SXV game. Keep fit. Pass your fitness tests.
2. For each player, discuss what Cheika has recommended with own coach, skills support and fitness personnel and ensure that it fits in with the bigger picture. Cheika himself has admitted that he didn't know many/most of the squad.
3. Start Will Skelton on preparation for the 2019 RWC as I can't see how he can be Test fit in 2015. In my view he's currently stealing a Wallaby Test spot from players who already have a near-complete skill set and who can play for 80 minutes. As Cheika is his Club coach he's in a good position to co-ordinate this.
4. Get good advice for Cheika so that he realises that he can't coach both the Waratahs and the Wallabies.

That's probably enough at this stage................

 

[chasmac]

Ok good comments.

Do you think we have enough on offer to have any of our back 5 become the next Vickerman?

 

[ForceFan]

Ok good comments.

Do you think we have enough on offer to have any of our back 5 become the next Vickerman?

We're certainly lacking the "mongrel" lock/s such as Vickerman or Madness or Potgeiter. I don't think that we can develop one before the RWC.

Maybe Coleman by 2019. I'm unsure if Jones has the mentality and discipline to make a big impact at Test level. 3 stupid penalties in 93 minutes is a poor start - and they were in areas of what should be his current skill set.

We are far from having a cohesive Forward Pack at this stage. For me this is Cheika's greatest challenge for this RWC and in many positions the options are far from ideal. Time is going to be of the essence - that's why I can't see him doing both coaching jobs.

Let's see who is available around June next year..........

 

[ForceFan]

A more detailed breakdown for each Forward:

 

[Joe Blow]

We have Neville and Pyle from Melbourne and Coleman from the West. At least one of them should be brought into the squad for the RC.
It may come down to us having an exceptional back row to balance out an average second row. That's nothing new for us.
Hopefully one of these blokes steps up big time during the Super rugby season.

 

[Braveheart81]

We have Neville and Pyle from Melbourne and Coleman from the West. At least one of them should be brought into the squad for the RC.
It may come down to us having an exceptional back row to balance out an average second row. That's nothing new for us.
Hopefully one of these blokes steps up big time during the Super rugby season.

Pyle has gone to Europe.

There are substantial issues at lock but I think expecting Neville or Coleman to help solve those issues in time for the RWC is wishful thinking. They would certainly need excellent Super Rugby seasons to put themselves in the frame.

Neither have managed to be consistently good at Super Rugby level and Sam Carter for instance who has consistently been much better than them at Super Rugby level hasn't set the world on fire at test level.

Neville is probably the most likely to be next in line but I'd be surprised if he pushes any of the four locks (plus the 6/4 options in Fardy and Jones) out of his way in 2015.

Unfortunately I don't think there are any magic bullets to fix the problem.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Neville is probably the most likely to be next in line but I'd be surprised if he pushes any of the four locks (plus the 6/4 options in Fardy and Jones) out of his way in 2015.

Unfortunately I don't think there are any magic bullets to fix the problem.

Do you think the Fardy/Jones 4/6 option means that Skelton is line ball to make the RWC squad if it were picked right now?
Can Higgers play lock?

 

[Braveheart81]

Do you think the Fardy/Jones 4/6 option means that Skelton is line ball to make the RWC squad if it were picked right now?
Can Higgers play lock?

Going on the last RWC, pretty much every team took four locks.

I've never heard of Higgers playing lock so I'd guess no. I certainly can't see it happening unless there was a slew of injuries on game day and there was no other choice.

Fardy will be the first choice 6. I can definitely see Jones competing with Skelton for a spot, particularly if other selection desires mean that Cheika wants to gain an extra spot by selecting one less lock/blindside by picking Jones who can do both.

Personally I think Skelton will make the squad together with Simmons, Carter and Horwill (if they're all fit). I don't really see Coleman or Neville being picked ahead of any of them in 2015 and can't really think of any other good options who are likely to be around the mark by June next year.

 

[ForceFan]

Have checked through the stats for England.
The player arriving 1st gets credit for impact ~97% of the time.
~33% arriving 2nd make no impact.
~67% arriving 3rd, 4th, 5th or later still make no impact.

 

[Braveheart81]

Have checked through the stats for England.
The player arriving 1st gets credit for impact ~97% of the time.
~33% arriving 2nd make no impact.
~67% arriving 3rd, 4th, 5th or later still make no impact.

One thing that could be interesting to consider is whether that second and third person have the opportunity to make an impact.

You can safely say that in almost all circumstances you need a player arriving second as quickly as possible after the first. If the first person is effective and the opposition doesn't contest, the second person will have nothing to do (so statistically won't be credited for making an impact).

You probably need the third person too. Obviously they will have even less opportunity to make an impact unless the opposition contests fiercely.

Certainly the players close to the play can't wait to see if they're needed. By that point it's too late.

The thing I have found most interesting about the ruck stats is that it seems to make it very clear that different players are given very different focuses in terms of where, when and what they contest.

 

[ForceFan]

The thing I have found most interesting about the ruck stats is that it seems to make it very clear that different players are given very different focuses in terms of where, when and what they contest.

If you check out my posts on the thread for each of the Tests you can see that I've posted the ruck involvement for each player for each 10 minutes of the game.
There is clearly strategies related to cycling players through rucks and as ball runners etc. as well as actually resting players (Hooper & McCalman) who are expected to play the full 80 minutes.
McCalman often had a ruck quiet 30 minutes during the first half.
Hooper often had a ruck quiet 10-20 around the 3/4 point in the game before lots of involvement in last 10 minutes.

 

[Braveheart81]

If you check out my posts on the thread for each of the Tests you can see that I've posted the ruck involvement for each player for each 10 minutes of the game.

I have checked out every one of your posts in detail! Absolutely love the analysis (and agree with all your conclusions).

 

[chiraag]

I completely agree Braveheart - this is excellent stuff and is the missing part of so many stats as this is the hard work that is generally hidden and hard to measure.

Am impressed that there is a clear pattern of 'rest' periods for the 80 minute players - shows that there is some good planning in the coaching. Have also been impressed by the impact that guys like McCalman and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) have been able to make while clearly carrying niggles.

ForceFan to be the new Scott Allen perhaps??

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Do we think that the rest periods of lesser effort existed under McKenzie?

 

[ForceFan]

Do we think that the rest periods of lesser effort existed under McKenzie?

There is no evidence of this in the Bok2 game (under Link).
In the Arg2 and Bled 3 games (under Link) there is some evidence that either Hooper or Fardy may have had a period of lesser effort for 10 minutes around the 60 minute mark (when players have come off the bench) before a bigger effort in the last 10 or 20 mins it doesn't appear to be as well established as under Cheika.

It certainly appears to be a strategy to handle the injured McCalman as there was no real replacement for him on tour.

This makes McCalman's efforts on tour even more commendable and good management by the coaching team..

 

[Joe Blow]

Pyle has gone to Europe.

There are substantial issues at lock but I think expecting Neville or Coleman to help solve those issues in time for the RWC is wishful thinking. They would certainly need excellent Super Rugby seasons to put themselves in the frame.

Neither have managed to be consistently good at Super Rugby level and Sam Carter for instance who has consistently been much better than them at Super Rugby level hasn't set the world on fire at test level.

Neville is probably the most likely to be next in line but I'd be surprised if he pushes any of the four locks (plus the 6/4 options in Fardy and Jones) out of his way in 2015.

Unfortunately I don't think there are any magic bullets to fix the problem.

I disagree. Cheika will be well aware that he does not have the tight 5 personnel that he needs to make a successful RWC assault. He will be looking for a couple of new people to lift the aggression and strength of that tight 5 contingent.
I would suggest that there is opportunity for the likes of Coleman, Neville, Sio etc. They will have to have a bumper Super rugby season to get there.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think there is a real opportunity for one or two tight forwards to make the RWC squad if they really step up in Super rugby next year. Lord knows we need some more quality there, because who we've got currently won't win us the big prize. There are always bolters in world cup years and some of them have turned out to be ripper players.

 

[HighPlainsDrifter]

I think part of the problem is that the players seem to be playing for their own positions rather than for each other , I'm not saying they are doing it deliberately I just thing its a confidence thing that will be solved when Cheika finally gets the "belief" concept over the line . We have the backs in spades ...the forwards are a work in progress , I believe we are competing with the opposition but have not yet harnessed the ability to close out games ....this will come , maintain faith . I think it will help if we try to look at the Wallaby Squad as Australians ... not as Tah's , Reds , Force , Brumbies , Rebels ....that may help from our end as fans ( regardless of what we may think of the ARU ) .