Spring Tour - Wallaby Forwards - What do the stats tell me?

[ForceFan]

There's been a heap of discussion on all forums about the Wallaby Forward pack and especially performace at scrums. But what about other aspects of their game?

Recognising that it’s difficult to get reliable rugby stats, and frustrated by nothing being available on Ruck stats, and having some time on my hands, I decided to gather some ruck stats of my own.

So who was working hard for the Wallabies and actually making an impact in this important aspect of the game.

The following data was gathered from watching replays of each Test and compiling data for all Tests played. Ranking is from highest to lowest in each category.

Notes:
1. Average rucks have been normalised as if each player played for the full 80 minutes. In reality only Hooper and McCalman achieved this feat. Simmons x 2 and Carter x 1. As the front row, in particular are usually flagging, this normalised number probably boosts what they would have achieved.

2. Early to ruck means 1st or 2nd after the tackler. This data is not normalised but from actual rucks.

3. Impact at ruck means active engagement, strong physical contact, changed shape of ruck, clean-out, etc. (more than hand on someone's bum or playing statues.) Impact doesn't mean that the player was "menacing" at the ruck. This data is also from actual rucks made.

Discussion

Total Rucks

• In the last Test against South Africa the Wallabies engaged 61% of rucks in Defence.
• In the last Tests against Argentina and New Zealand the Wallabies engaged 90% of rucks in Defence.
• Over the 4 Tests on the Spring Tour the Wallabies reduced the engagement on rucks in Defence from 70% against Wales, 60% against France, 55% against Ireland, down to a low of 40% against England. The average engagement of rucks in Defence was 60%.

Summary

1. Carter and McMahon are our best rucking Forwards.
2. Hooper and Fianga’a a step below.
3. Slipper, Simmons and McCalman another step below.
4. Kepu is clearly our worst rucking Forward.

Individual Performance
McMahon makes lots of rucks, arrives early and has reasonable impact.
Carter is not far behind McMahon in total rucks, similar timing and the highest impact. Carter often makes the initial cleanout.
Hooper makes the most rucks but with average early engagement and one of the lowest impacts.
Fianga’a was one of the workhorses at rucks; often using his good technique to drastically change the shape of the ruck.
Slipper works in much the same way as Fianga’a but with slightly less impact.
Simmons makes lots of rucks early as a blocker/protector without making much impact.
McCalman made fewer rucks but appeared to pick his time of arrival to make impact when needed.
Kepu makes lots of rucks but is generally a late arrival and most often just filling space and playing statues to one side. He rarely “hits” a ruck and is more into leaning or pushing.

Others??
Horwill (145 mins inc Barbs): 81 rucks (Attack 61; Defence 20) - early 72%/impact 74%.
Alexander (116 mins inc Barbs): 56 rucks (Attack 44; Defence 12) - 82% early/impact 71%.
Hodgson (98 mins inc Barbs): 70 rucks (Attack 47; Defence 23) - early 90%/impact 79%.
Skelton (95 mins): 49 rucks (Attack 37; Defence 12) - early 76%/impact 76%.
Robinson (94 mins inc Barbs): 33 rucks (Attack 29; Defence 4) - early 73%/impact
Jones (93 mins): 35 rucks (Attack 33; Defence 2) - early 83%/ impact 77%.
Hanson (79 mins inc Barbs): 37 rucks (Attack 26; Defence 11) - 89% early/impact 54%.
Schatz (27 mins): 12 rucks (Attack 11; Defence 1) - early 83%/impact 50%.

Ruck Involvement by Backs
Against Wales: Leali’ifano – 22, Kurudrani – 22, Tomane – 18 and Foley - 13.
Average over 4 Tests: To'omua – 17 (2 Tests only); AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) – 12; Foley - 10

Some stats from ESPN Scrum.
How do these compare against Super XV 2014 performance for each player?

GREEN = Better than Super XV performance.
BLUE = Same as Super XV performance.
RED = Below Super XV performance.

Tackles
+ Both Hooper and Kepu tackled well above their Super XV averages
(3 more tackles/game and 3% more effective).
+ Fiangaa's tackling 12% more effective.
+ Slipper's tackling 4% more effective.
+ McCalman averaged 3 less tackles/game.
+ McMahon, Carter and Simmons significantly down in tackles and efficiency.

Ball Carries
+ McCalman, McMahon and Simmons maintained their Super XV performance.
+ Hooper seemed well covered by the opposition. Hooper normally averages 35m/game in Super XV.
+ Other Forwards made <50% of their normal carry m.

Penalties Conceded
+ McMahon (nearly x 3), Slipper (nearly x 2) and Hooper (nearly x 2) conceded more penalties.
+ Fianga'a, Simmons and McCalman conceded far less penalties.
+ Jones conceded 5 penalties in 93 minutes.
+ Hodgson, considered a penalty magnet by some, conceded no penalties and made a turnover in each of his 3 appearances (13 mins, 11 mins & 74 mins).

(Have corrected an error in the first Table re Hooper's rucks in Defence and Total rucks)

I'm interested in what other G&GRs can make of these stats...................

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Immediate impression: Hooper hits too many rucks for too little return

 

[chiraag]

Outstanding work ForceFan, and much appreciated.

The numbers for Simmons are all rather low, which really highlights our problems at lock considering he is considered our number 1 at the moment.

The numbers also seem to confirm that Hooper covers a hell of a lot of ground, although a lot of it doesn't really have much impact. Hodgson's numbers in comparison are pretty phenomenal, although a much smaller sample set, lower intensity game and wouldn't have the same impact with his running game.

The numbers for Macmahon and Carter are quite impressive. Carter definitely showing that he is in fact a workhorse as expected, and surprisingly effective as well. If he can continue with those sort of numbers and improve his running and body height in contact, happy for him to continue as one of our starting locks.

McCalman's ruck numbers are a little lower than expected, but I guess he is focusing more on his running game which was good. Would be interesting to see how the ruck numbers would compare to Palu, who I think would likely be even lower but that may just be my Force bias....

 

[Viking]

Very interesting stuff. Great work.

Certainly highlights what many G&GR posters are so critical of Hooper for.

This shows he is late in too many rucks reflecting his poor impact stats. He is also very low in the defensive ruck stats which is a worry for any flanker.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Sorry Forcefan, i should have thanked you for your efforts.

 

[RugbyReg]

ForceFan, how would you feel about making a blog post on this? Basically us reproducing it for the front page?

 

[Strewthcobber]

Very interesting stuff. Great work.

Certainly highlights what many G&GR posters are so critical of Hooper for.

This shows he is late in too many rucks reflecting his poor impact stats. He is also very low in the defensive ruck stats which is a worry for any flanker.

From the way his defensive ruck stats have been dropping progressively, I'd say he's under instruction from the coach on that one.

Its also why his tackle stats are so good

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Nothing like some good old facts to settle a subjective discussion.

Many on here have opined about how poor Carter, and McMahon were on tour, and that Simmons was a penalty magnet etc.

Some of these figures may be shaped by directions/game plans issued by the Coach such as ball carries, role at the ruck/maul, positioning and role on attack, but penalties against and tackle effectiveness is down to the individuals skills.

One thing that the overall stats numbers summary doesn't tell us is the consequence of the actions. Some games can turn on one penalty decision, or one missed tackle. Not all missed tackles have the same consequence.

Great effort on your behalf for taking the time to produce these stats. It is appreciated and I'm impressed, but would wager that your wife/GF/partner isn't.

 

[ForceFan]

ForceFan, how would you feel about making a blog post on this? Basically us reproducing it for the front page?

Go ahead RugbyReg...........

 

[ForceFan]

From the way his defensive ruck stats have been dropping progressively, I'd say he's under instruction from the coach on that one.

Its also why his tackle stats are so good

It's not just Hooper's Defensive ruck stats - it goes for the whole team.

Nothing shows it more than the last 10 minutes against Wales:
Hooper made 17 rucks; 16 in Attack and only the single in Defence. He made 6 tackles in this 10 minutes.
Hodgson made 18 rucks; 10 in Attack and 8 in Defence and only the single tackle plus 1 turnover.
Hodgson's 8 Defensive rucks almost equaled the combined total of the rest of the team.

It's their speed to the ruck that makes it possible. That's a ruck every 33 seconds.

For the WF Hodgson often made the tackle for Pocock to pilfer and then quickly got back on his feet to provide ruck support/cleanout or make the next tackle.

 

[Viking]

some great insights into the wallabies tactics from these stats.

I'm guessing the last 10minutes of the Wales game when Hooper wasn't making the first tackle (which was a lot), he didn't hit many rucks as he didn't want to give away a penalty as it would have lost us the game.

Alternatively, it shows Hodgson's confidence in hitting defensive rucks without giving away a penalty.

Also I'm not sure I agree with the tactic of not attacking defensive rucks..if indeed it is true the stats show a decline in this due to coaches orders.

 

[Strewthcobber]

some great insights into the wallabies tactics from these stats.

I'm guessing the last 10minutes of the Wales game when Hooper wasn't making the first tackle (which was a lot), he didn't hit many rucks as he didn't want to give away a penalty as it would have lost us the game.

Alternatively, it shows Hodgson's confidence in hitting defensive rucks without giving away a penalty.

Also I'm not sure I agree with the tactic of not attacking defensive rucks..if indeed it is true the stats show a decline in this due to coaches orders.

Yeah, I think we can get away with it against the nh (though we still lost!)

I hate to think what NZ will do to us with quick, uninterrupted phase ball all game

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Yeah I'm not sure I like the tactic of hanging off defensive rucks either. I personally think we should be trying to disrupt the oppositions ball as much as the referee will allow. Doing that slows down the clearance from the ruck, which gives more time for defensive realignment. It also means the opposition have to commit more numbers to secure the ball. It's all a balance though. You can't have eight blokes piling in every time or else it'll leave big holes in the defence. My general philosophy on rugby is that the contest for the pill is one of the defining features of the game, thus we should be competing for it as much as is practical.

 

[Joe Blow]

some great insights into the wallabies tactics from these stats.

I'm guessing the last 10minutes of the Wales game when Hooper wasn't making the first tackle (which was a lot), he didn't hit many rucks as he didn't want to give away a penalty as it would have lost us the game.

Alternatively, it shows Hodgson's confidence in hitting defensive rucks without giving away a penalty.

Also I'm not sure I agree with the tactic of not attacking defensive rucks..if indeed it is true the stats show a decline in this due to coaches orders.

I am guessing so.


It appeared as though all side were following this trend going back to the ABs in the RC. The Argies too.
I guess that it minimizes the chance of being penalized while also ensuring you have the numbers to match the opposition on the next phase.

 

[FilthRugby]

ForceFan, your popularity will soar, but don't consider going to 'The Roar'. GAGR needs you. You're already a valuable member.

Great work by the way. Nothing better than reading some rugby stats. Keep it up.

 

[RugbyReg]

Go ahead RugbyReg.....

Done mate. It's on the front page. Chucked it under my name and referenced you. Going forward I you are interested in something more regular we can set you up as your own identity.

Let me know.

 

[fatprop]

Yeah I'm not sure I like the tactic of hanging off defensive rucks either. I personally think we should be trying to disrupt the oppositions ball as much as the referee will allow. Doing that slows down the clearance from the ruck, which gives more time for defensive realignment. It also means the opposition have to commit more numbers to secure the ball. It's all a balance though. You can't have eight blokes piling in every time or else it'll leave big holes in the defence. My general philosophy on rugby is that the contest for the pill is one of the defining features of the game, thus we should be competing for it as much as is practical.

Chieka seems to use the rule "fan out unless we have got a dominant tackle or dominant cleanout"

personally think we should be trying to disrupt the oppositions ball as much as the referee will allow

I think that becomes an investment of units calculation, because if it doesn't work your defensive line will be short

actually one my pet peeves is the unit working as a defensive pillar who does a late smash into a ruck as the their 9 is actually picking up the ball, all it does is take a player out of the defensive line for no value

 

[ForceFan]

I'm enjoying the discussion and comments.

There's a lot of comments about the "impact" stat.

I included the term "active engagement" as this can include providing a strong bridge over the ball or pilferer, keeping low and actively looking/preparing for a cleanout by the opposition. It does not mean that strong physical contact or changing the shape of the ruck has to occur and recognises the protection/resistance aspects.

It does not include what I consider "passive engagement" which includes late arrival, standing to the side without any engagement (or even a hand on a mate's bum), unbraced, not even looking at the opposition etc etc.
I get the impression that some players are very aware of needing to improve their ruck stats. My stats do not reward the player whose timing is so bad that he/and the team would be better off if he'd stayed as part of the defensive line.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Chieka seems to use the rule "fan out unless we have got a dominant tackle or dominant cleanout"



I think that becomes an investment of units calculation, because if it doesn't work your defensive line will be short

actually one my pet peeves is the unit working as a defensive pillar who does a late smash into a ruck as the their 9 is actually picking up the ball, all it does is take a player out of the defensive line for no value

Fair points all. I can certainly agree with the philosophies of not counter rucking unless a dominant tackle has been made and the late smash into the ruck.

 

[chasmac]

I'm enjoying the discussion and comments.

There's a lot of comments about the "impact" stat.

I included the term "active engagement" as this can include providing a strong bridge over the ball or pilferer, keeping low and actively looking/preparing for a cleanout by the opposition. It does not mean that strong physical contact or changing the shape of the ruck has to occur and recognises the protection/resistance aspects.

It does not include what I consider "passive engagement" which includes late arrival, standing to the side without any engagement (or even a hand on a mate's bum), unbraced, not even looking at the opposition etc etc.
I get the impression that some players are very aware of needing to improve their ruck stats. My stats do not reward the player whose timing is so bad that he/and the team would be better off if he'd stayed as part of the defensive line.

Hey Forcefan.
Given that you have created the parameters that you measured in your analysis plus the fact you have no doubt watched a huge amount of rugby with the remote control in hand I have a couple of questions for you.
If you were the current coach, what would you say to each of these players to go and work on for the pre season.
Obviously your comments would need to be specific to the player and to the requirements of his position.
E.g. Obvious ones for Skelton is Fitness, Speed (?) Scrum technique and lineout jumping.
Further and different topic I guess.
Did you ever get the feeling that any player was just simply too slow to be out there?
I remember thinking in one of the early Bledisloes that Skelton was poised to make an impact if he could simply keep up to the pace of the game.