Is the third best based on rankings or by win/loss then for/against?
Not impossible but unlikely - we need to overtake Argentina but could do that by doing nothing if they suffer heavy losses to Scotland and England, and if we at least draw with France that would help too. Edit - sorry, Scotland would then overtake us so you could be right. Having had a better look, if Scotland beat Argentina by 1-15 then that would relegate us to 8th, but if we then beat France I think we would overtake both. We are pretty much fucked I'd say, but Argentina beating Scotland tomorrow morning would seal the deal. As posted elsewhere, with the round of 16 and us guaranteed in Pool A, it means as long as we come out of our pool 1st or 2nd we won't meet one of the other pool winners until the quarter finals at the earliest.
I think our only chance of getting in the top 6 is if Scotland have a narrow win over Argentina, we beat France, and Argentina lose to England. The Scotland v Tonga game will largely be irrelevant, if we jump Argentina we will also jump Scotland.
Funnily enough I was about to post asking people what they thought our strongest potential XV currently is I.e forget the starters v finishers, just who would be our best players in each position assuming all available, fit and in form. You nailed the exact same backline as me.
I think you should start Lonergan. Tate is just so much more effective when the gaps around the ruck start to increase. Besides that you are dead on