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Yep, wouldn't surprise me if Samoa lose to Chile in the next 2 weeks, but then have a significantly strengthened team for the final qualifying tournament (with European based pros) and win it easily.
If Samoa beat Chile, then I think the final spot is harder to predict, with Namibia, Belgium and Chile all with a decent shot at it.
Chile could very well win the playoff against Samoa. As a squad they have the cohesion advantage. The Eagles started 3 distinct 15s in each of the rounds so never got to build cohesion which showed against Samoa. Chile have been together since January.