Rugby Betting 2016

[Houndi]

Chiefs +2 definitely a solid pick I'll be taking this week. I reckon over the total in Highlanders vs Sharks is a lock, particularly with Garth April starting over Pietersen. Also taking Highlanders -4.5 on the 1st half and I picked them up earlier at -8.5 on the game. Stormers -12.5 vs reds (Etzebeth back, Kolisi starts, Kolbe getting on the outside of K Hunt etc.), and Waratahs -3.5 (however I like this less after seeing the force team for the weekend).

 

[barbarian]

Waratahs at $5.50 to win the Aussie conference.

With a few easy games ahead and the wheels falling off in Canberra I think that might be overs. They shouldn't be favourites, but they have a real chance if they can get a roll on.
.

 

[Houndi]

Rebels fixtures are horrendous, so I would go as far as to rule them out of top spot. Brumbies fixtures: Highlanders away, Bulls at home, Rebels away, Sunwolves at home, Reds at home, Blues away, Force at home. Waratahs fixtures: Stormers away, Cheetahs home, Bulls home, Crusaders away, Chiefs home, Sunwolves away, Hurricanes home, Blues away. Looking at these fixtures lists I have Brumbies getting 45-49 points and the Waratahs getting 40-46 points.

 

[Houndi]

Sharks are going to get savaged today, Chiefs 1st half -6.5 and game at -10.5 with aaron cruden getting a try at $4. Few teams have punished their horrific ability to hold onto the ball in contact, but I think the Chiefs will expose that today. Bulls -6.5 against the Force looks pretty good as well, particularly with Prior starting at 10 (desperation mode). They'll probably expose him defensively so I'd suggest taking Jan Serfontein to get a try at $3.6. For the weekend I like Jaguares -21.5 at home, Highlanders -4.5 on the game (both smiths to get tries) and -2 on the 1st half, Waratahs to win outright.

 

[Braveheart81]

Much better betting weekend for me.

Lost on the Chiefs +8.5 but then won on:

Blues 1-12 @ 2.70
Waratahs @ 2.80
Chiefs, Highlanders, Rebels +7 @ 3.14
Chiefs, Highlanders -6 @ 2.25
Chiefs, Highlanders, Waratahs @ 4.59

 

[Houndi]

Much better betting weekend for me.

Lost on the Chiefs +8.5 but then won on:

Blues 1-12 @ 2.70
Waratahs @ 2.80
Chiefs, Highlanders, Rebels +7 @ 3.14
Chiefs, Highlanders -6 @ 2.25
Chiefs, Highlanders, Waratahs @ 4.59

Nice work mate, what do you reckon about this weekend, some pretty tough games to bet on if you ask me? I'd only bet blues away at -28.5 vs kings and force -2.5 at this point, with leans towards Highlanders +4.5, Waratahs -13.5, Hurricanes -1.5, Reds +18.5. I think totals will once again be a winner this weekend with a lot of overs.

 

[Braveheart81]

I haven't looked at this week's odds yet but I got pretty lucky last weekend.

Rebels game was a line of 7 and they lost by 6. Not too far from the end Blues were up by 13 and both bets would have lost. Waratahs won by 2. Chiefs won by 2.

The only one that finished reasonably safely was the Highlanders.

 

[TheKing]

I had a pretty good week last week as well.

This week I've lumped on a $4.78 five-leg that I think I'd put my metaphorical, 45 years-in-to-the-future first house on.

1. Crusaders H2H v Reds, $1.10

$1.10 for the Crusaders is nice and safe. I get the feeling that the Reds will get within the 18.5 line, but I'm not touching it.

2. Force -3.5 v Sunwolves, $1.90

The expansion teams have been solid at home, and the Sunwolves have been quite unpredictable. I think the Force will travel better than the Jags did last week after three home games and a bye, so I'm taking the -3.5 line here.

3. Waratahs H2H v Cheetahs, $1.13

The Waratahs are in great attacking form with mercurial centre Kurtley Beale the living embodiment of it. With good defensive outside backs the Waratahs will suffocate the Cheetahs out wide while the high tempo attack, that was too fast for the Stormers, will be way too much for the Highveldters as well. The -13.5 line is a touch high to be "safe", but the H2H looks like gold.

4. Sharks v Hurricanes -1.5, $1.90

I said two weeks ago I'd take the Sharks + line no matter who they played, before chickening out.

I said it again after the came within two points of the high flying Chiefs. I'm going to chicken out again here against the Hurricanes.

The Cane's have blown out teams by 19.6 points over the last five weeks. They're the most aggressive points-scoring team in the competition bar none, and if they beat the Lions by 30 points I'm not confident the Sharks can finish within 1.5.

5. Kings v Blues H2H, $1.03

I think the Kings will be better at home, so the +28 line looks appealing. Not safe enough for my final leg, so I'll boost with the Blues H2H at 1.03



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[Braveheart81]

I'm not confident in the Force to win, let alone beating the spread as well.

The Blues to me aren't worth it for only $1.03. Not enough value to take a risk on such an unpredictable team.

I like the Waratahs at the line (although I'm biased). I think they should blow the Cheetahs away.

I also like the Chiefs at $1.52. I think they'll beat the Highlanders at home and this is enough value to make it worthwhile.

My main bet this weekend is Crusaders, Chiefs, Waratahs @ $1.92

I'll probably take a couple of higher odds bets for less money incorporating the Tahs at the line.

I think I'll steer clear of the Brumbies v Bulls match.

 

[Houndi]

A few of the early lines that look particularly appealing to me are the Lions at -5.5, Lions minus the points on the 1st half, Cheetahs -24.5 and probably the best bet of the week in the Stormers at -21.5.

 

[TheKing]

The Hurricanes and Chiefs played so far below themselves this weekend.

Rotten luck had me take one, or both of them, in every multi. It turned out to be a terrible week despite nailing all but two results.

I've taken the Cheetahs, Stormers and Hurricanes to pad my multi.

I've taken the Crusaders -3.5, fresh off the bye in the pristine Forsyth-Barr. Skills won't capitulate, which is what delivered the 'Landers their comprehensive Chiefs win.

I also think Sportsbet were generous to put the Rebels within five of the Brumbies, especially after putting the Bulls to the sword.

To add value I took the Waratahs H2H at $1.40 over the Bulls as well. It's the Bulls third week on tour and this is the first time they've played tough opposition back-to-back. I'm hoping the Waratahs shake off their Cheetahs form and return to their Stormers form.

All up, I invested $20 at $5.95. Barring shit luck I should claw back $99.10 in profit

1. Crusaders (-3.5) @ $1.90
2. Brumbies (-4.5) @ 1.90
3. Hurricanes @ $1.10
4. Waratahs @ $1.40
5. Stormers @ $1.04
6. Cheetahs @ $1.03

 

[TheKing]

What's the process of getting a thread moved in to the actual forum, not the suggested section?

I have a feeling we'd get a lot more punters contributing if this was more visible

 

[barbarian]

Good call. Now in Rugby Discussion.

 

[Sully]

Now there will be no mention of betting and odds anywhere but this thread.

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[Braveheart81]

Now there will be no mention of betting and odds anywhere but this thread.

Sent from my GT-N7000B using Tapatalk

2 to 1 on says someone breaks that rule within a week.

 

[TheKing]

The speculation about the Hurricanes suspended players has dropped their line from -24 to -14.5

Considering we don't yet know who is out, that seems like a massive over-reaction.

Anybody tempted on taking the Canes -14.5 at $1.90?

 

[Braveheart81]

I definitely think so. The Hurricanes are surely likely to still put a good team on the park and be huge favourites to win. They are also at home.

My betting provider has taken the odds down for this game currently.

Nothing leaps out at me this week which is a shame given I normally bet plus it's my week in my Punting club coming up.

Tempted by the Highlanders at home the Crusaders @ 2.20 (haven't looked at the teams yet).

The Rebels at home to the Brumbies @ 2.60 could be worth a nudge too.

I think I will go with the Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers paying around $1.58 or so as I think all three teams will win.

 

[TheKing]

I backed myself to tip a perfect week, put on $10 at $12ish odds.

Only two games from eight give me cause for concern.

The Chiefs never really challenged the Highlanders, so I don't know what to expect from them. That being said, I don't see the Crusaders making the same errors fresh off the bye. Especially playing indoors.

Though it's a tough travel and the Jags are a better team at home, the Sharks form against the comp's best teams in the last few weeks make me think they're going to win their group. Despite the travel, the Jags won't crack that defence.

 

[Scoey]

Geez I know the Reds were pretty flaccid but the Crusaders still shouldn't be fresh from their bye!

 

[TheKing]

Of course they played the Reds! I was totally convinced they had the week off. Point still stands though