The Reds have the luxury of back to back home games and back to back wins, the game against the Brumbies one of the best they've played in a few years.
The Rebels are on the back end of a tough SA slog, for me they are the benchmark for the Aussie conference and know how important a win is here to keep themselves in the hunt for top spot and also the teams below at an arms length, as the conference is now wide open.
I think advantage still sits with the Rebels as the return of the ex-Reds premiership play making duo will have them primed for a big performance which could offset the mental fatigue of a couple of losses, although the physical fatigue is still an issue. The risk as well for a young side such as the Reds is if they rest on their prior accomplishments, they'll be brought back to Earth very quickly.
I'll tip the Rebels but wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds get up in a close one in probably wet conditions.