Round 3 : Reds v Crusaders - 11 March 2017 - Suncorp Stadium

[Scoey]

Any betting folks that like me, are pretty confident of the Reds chances in this one might like to know that the Reds are at $3+ on most betting sites. Pretty good value there I reckon.

EDIT: If you're really brave it might be a good one to throw in a multi.

 

[Sully]

After looking at last weeks game I wouldn't be putting amy money on the Reds.

Sent from my D5833 using Tapatalk

 

[Scoey]

What about the week before that Sully?

One of the big hangovers from the RG era is our confidence as supporters is clearly shot to pieces. I know this will take a while to come back but preseason we were contenders going by posts in here, after round 1 we are still probably the most likely team to win the AUS conference then we put on a shit show against the force (who we always play shit against) and it feels like the consensus is that we have finally reverted to type and are playing shit again. We'll beat the Crusaders this weekend mate.

 

[Scrubber2050]

^^^^^
Love it Scoey.

Your optimism, that is !!!!!!

I'm with ya.

 

[Simon.]

I had a punt on for Reds by 5+ points.

Saders still favourites and the Reds will probably get thumped, but... remember last year when a significantly worse Reds team than this played a significantly better Kiwi team than this depleted Saders lineup and beat them? I think they were paying about $4 from memory.

YCs and RCs are much more of a lottery this year too which raises the prospect of the Saders getting a red in the first 20 minutes.

 

[I like to watch]

Any betting folks that like me, are pretty confident of the Reds chances in this one might like to know that the Reds are at $3+ on most betting sites. Pretty good value there I reckon.

EDIT: If you're really brave it might be a good one to throw in a multi.

You can't eat value

 

[Braveheart81]

YCs and RCs are much more of a lottery this year too which raises the prospect of the Saders getting a red in the first 20 minutes.

There has been one red card in 18 games. It would have probably been a red card last season.

There are definitely more yellow cards for high tackles but the premise that there are now a flood of them doesn't seem to be being born out in reality.

 

[Simon.]

We'll have to wait longer than 2 rounds to gauge the RC trends - reds were rare last season so 1 in 16 games is still just statistical noise. The fact remains the RC threshold is significantly lower this season according to the laws and for YCs it's much lower because they're substantially removed intent from the consideration.

So I would expect by the end of the season RCs will be up and YCs will be well up on 2016. More cards mean more opportunities for upsets which should, in theory, narrow the betting odds between any two given sides.

The Sharks managed a shock upset of the Highlanders in NZ last season when the Highlanders got a red in the first 10 minutes.

 

[Braveheart81]

By my count there were six red cards last season. Will be interesting to see how the number compares at the end of this season.​

 

[Simon.]

Interesting stats on YCs last year vs this year:

2016 - 94 YCs in 142 games = 0.66 per game
2017 - 21 YCs in 18 games = 1.17 per game

Almost double the rate so far. I would expect that to come down over time as players adjust to the new interpretations.

 

[Simon.]

I guess the other thing we need to consider about RCs is that two YCs equal a red so if more YCs are coming out there may be more reds from that and not just from RC-level infringements.

 

[No4918]

Interesting stats on YCs last year vs this year:

2016 - 94 YCs in 142 games = 0.66 per game
2017 - 21 YCs in 18 games = 1.17 per game

Almost double the rate so far. I would expect that to come down over time as players adjust to the new interpretations.

Always seems to be more in the first few rounds. Can think of a few reasons for that a) players getting used to new interpretations/laws, b) overzealous refs and c) overzealous refs. Last one seems familiar, did i mention it already?

 

[Simon.]

If the overzealous refs could stop picking on my fantasy players, that'd be great. By my count 6 of those 21 YCs have been on my fantasy team!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

ffs. As soon as I accept an avatar bet for the Cantabs over the Reds the illuminati death star bastards send over the fucken B team.

Round FOUR was when you were supposed to start resting the tenured AB pack for the Lions series NOT from round bloody THREE.

6. Whetu Douglas
7. Heiden Bedwell-Curtis
8. Pete Samu.

WHO THE F**K ARE THESE PEOPLE? THE GREAT SAMU, HYPHEN-FACE AND MR CLUB RUGBY NOBODY? FFS.

Word from our snitch on the mean streets of Onehunga is that there's some bad-ass Polynesian b-ballers planning some mischief in fair old Cheechee on Saint Paddy's night. Hence Sheriff Razor is keeping his powder dry & his ten-yeared axe murderers on ice to put a stop to any such shenanigans...........

Besides, if things go tits up in the loose we've got Jordan Taufua on the bench & the tighties still look a match for the Reds. Problem area imo will be the 9-10 which makes a change from it being the 12-13 for what seems like a VERY long fuckin' time but not in a good way.

 

[The torpedo]

Word from our snitch on the mean streets of Onehunga is that there's some bad-ass Polynesian b-ballers planning some mischief in fair old Cheechee on Saint Paddy's night. Hence Sheriff Razor is keeping his powder dry & his ten-yeared axe murderers on ice to put a stop to any such shenanigans.....

Besides, if things go tits up in the loose we've got Jordan Taufua on the bench & the tighties still look a match for the Reds. Problem area imo will be the 9-10 which makes a change from it being the 12-13 for what seems like a VERY long fuckin' time but not in a good way.

you guys will still flog us anyway considering you have the depth of the marina trench and we have the depth of....a backyard pool deep end

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^ I'm not so sure about "flog", I'll settle for "edge out" or "get home". Reds are certainly better value than the $3+ the punters have them at IMO.

 

[Ash]

Punters haven't yet caught onto the Crusadists running half a second string team. When they do, it'll come in, probably all the way to 2.99 or 2.98.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^ oddly enough three of the four sites quoted on flashscores.com.au have actually gone out to $3.20-$3.40, the other is stable at $3.30 & CruSadists are in slightly to $1.33-$1.36. Go figure.

Torp, Cyclo & Dismal, you should all head over to the Brumbies v Force match thread, there's some classic material that one of you may be needing to channel later tonight

 

[Dan54]

Anyway WOB, you going into the game tonight? I am and just wondering to I need to do your supporting for you

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^^ sadly I have a prior family engagement so I can't go. They do have Foxtel, tho, so I'm hopeful of seeing at least some of it. Looks like it should be a good night for footy (& a few pre-match quiet ones on Caxton St ). Enjoy!