Round 16 - Reds vs Waratahs - Saturday 2 June - 7:45pm @ Suncorp

[Tomikin]

Tests with Kerevi playing: W8 L8 D2 =50% w/l
Tests with Kuridrani playing: W30 L26 D2 =53.4% w/l

Blow me down and call me Clancy, we have won a few with Kerevi on the field?!

I’m still not sure what your point is. I think you’re saying that because Kerevi had a bad game a season or two ago he shouldnt be picked but despite the fact that Kuridrani has had a very below average season this year he should be picked?

Anyway, like I said, I don’t mind particularly who gets picked at 13 out of Rona, TK or Kerevi. My thoughts on whether it’s a good or bad selection will probably depend on who’s picked at 12.

im a little bias as TK is a Brumbie... but are you saying Kerevi been as good as TK at outside centre for the wallabies??



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[Sully]

I'm looking at the same app and it's definitely worth lining up Kerevi v Kuridrani and looking at things other than missed tackles.

Very interesting. The missed tackle thing takes on a whole new light.

Kerevi 156 tackles made 35 missed with a completion rate of 81.6753926701%

Kuridrani 102 tackles made 20 missed with a completion rate of 83.6065573770

Not a massive diference. Where there is a massive difference is in the attack and offload stats.

Seeing those numbers in a little happier with having Kerevi in the side. But I'm still not convinced.

Curtis Rona 87 tackles made 9 missed with a completion rate of 92.7083333333

That's a shitload less tackles. Wonder why?

Reece Hodge 79 tackles made 17 missed with a completion rate of 82.2916666666

Obviously not all made while playing 13.

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[TSR]

Hasn’t Rona come off the bench a couple of times, and also I think played in the wing. Whereas I don’t think Kerevi or TK have missed many game minutes.

 

[cyclopath]

Hasn’t Rona come off the bench a couple of times, and also I think played in the wing. Whereas I don’t think Kerevi or TK have missed many game minutes.

Yep, I think Rona has played less time, and moved around more.

 

[KOB1987]

Yes foketi started the season at 13


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[Kenny Powers]

Kerevi tops the Fox Sports missed tackle count with 45 and quiet a bit ahead of second place Elton Jantjies who has 38.

Beale is in 3rd place with 36 missed tackles and both him and Kerevi have a 70% tackle success rate.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/stats/players?sortBy=missedTackles

Statistics however can be misleading and what exactly counts as a missed tackled. I think Kerevi has many more defensive misreads which may not count as missed tackles and he never gets a hand on them.

None the less in is a damning indictment on Australian Rugby that we are so blinded by attacking skills that we ignore such poor defensive skills when they are coming thru the various development pathways. There is no way both can ever be on the field at the same time and I doubt if they should ever be in the same 23. Unfortunately for Kerevi his attack is very one dimensional and his kicking game is only ever his last option.

Gray would have to have in pace the most complicate defensive barn dance ever, which whilst justifying his position in the coaching ranks does little else positive for Australian Rugby. I really do think Gray overthinks it and loves to complicate it unnecessarily, if you go by his wardrobe choice at the game; beanie & scarf in Brisbane.?

Given Brad Thorn who is not a product of the ARU and therefore values defensive work efforts more than Australian coaches it is interesting (and I maybe wrong) but I believe Kerevi's contract is up at the end of the season and I don't think he has been re signed.

 

[Up the Guts]

Given Brad Thorn who is not a product of the ARU and therefore values defensive work efforts more than Australian coaches it is interesting (and I maybe wrong) but I believe Kerevi's contract is up at the end of the season and I don't think he has been re signed.

Don't think Kerevi would be captain behind Higgers if Thorn didn't rate him. He's likely to be the Wallaby 13 and is one of the best attacking backs in Super Rugby, I'd be very surprised if he's not retained by the Reds.

 

[Pfitzy]

Kuridrani still has issues on defensive alignment. The highlights reel against the Sunwolves demonstrated his lack of patience and reading the game - too often out of the line, making holes under pressure. He's not captured enough of his attacking game to balance that out IMHO.

Not that it matters in the thread about Tahs v Reds of course.

 

[Pfitzy]

Watched the replay this morning and two things stood out:

1) Pace of the game
2) Execution of skills

Both sides really showed their best, bar a few clangers, and it was refreshing to see two Aussie sides make mistakes chancing their arm rather than trying to NOT lose.

Its like Cheika got them all together before the game and said "rip in, and don't fart about"

Some really hard stuff at the breakdown as well, and IMHO the game was decided on the inexperience of the Reds outside backs who made a couple of crucial errors.

Plus, the good guys won.

 

[William88]

Aussies looking better than 2017 at least.

 

[Up the Guts]

Aussies looking better than 2017 at least.

Some people are complaining about the defence last night, these are the same people who would be complaining about the attack if we had a stodgy low scoring affair like the Reds and Highlanders the week before.

I thought it was a high octane, high skilled game with some great individual efforts that no defenders in the competition would have shut down (who in the world stops Folau from taking the cross field kick or Taqele 5m out?).

 

[tragic]

I thought it was a high octane, high skilled game with some great individual efforts that no defenders in the competition would have shut down (who in the world stops Folau from taking the cross field kick?).

The mungo boys have got it down pat now - put someone in the way whist making a half arsed attempt to look like they’re going for the ball to block the attacking player. Makes a nice shield.
The ABs have done it to Folau before.
The reds made the mistake of trying to compete in the air which was never going to work.

 

[TSR]

Watched the replay this morning and two things stood out:

1) Pace of the game
2) Execution of skills

Both sides really showed their best, bar a few clangers, and it was refreshing to see two Aussie sides make mistakes chancing their arm rather than trying to NOT lose.

Its like Cheika got them all together before the game and said "rip in, and don't fart about"

Some really hard stuff at the breakdown as well, and IMHO the game was decided on the inexperience of the Reds outside backs who made a couple of crucial errors.

Plus, the good guys won.

I was going to like this - right up until the last line.

 

[Pfitzy]

I was going to like this - right up until the last line.

It's ok to have an irrational fear of superiority. How else do you build a victim mentality?

 

[Brumby Runner]

Stats I saw indicate that Kerevi didn’t miss a tackle last night.

One on one he was very good. That tackle on the tryline was a beauty.

It is the lack of cohesion and formation in the backline defensive line that worries me about Kerevi at 13. I still think 12 is his best spot, and I'd like to see him partner DHP in the centres.

 

[eastman]

I think it might be worth going with the Waratah 10-12-13-15 combination for the first test against Ireland. For mine that combination has been dangerous and Rona especially understands his role within the system. Kerevi's impact this year has been mainly individual: busting tackles and throwing offloads- but hasn't made his outside backs look better.
My main concern would be the defence but that could be mitigated with some of Cheika's swapping.

 

[Scoey]

im a little bias as TK is a Brumbie. but are you saying Kerevi been as good as TK at outside centre for the wallabies??

Nope. They both bring different things. TK has certainly got runs on the board. His form this season has been lacklustre though. I don't agree that he has earned his spot as you originally stated. Yes he has some reputation points that might help overcome his form this season but has he earned his spot? IMO, no, not yet.

 

[RedsHappy]

Nope. They both bring different things. TK has certainly got runs on the board. His form this season has been lacklustre though. I don't agree that he has earned his spot as you originally stated. Yes he has some reputation points that might help overcome his form this season but has he earned his spot? IMO, no, not yet.

Just to this point: anyone who's studied the 2018 Ireland side knows:

- they are excellent at patient, long phase play in attack with low error rates and penalty counts

= we will need excellence in our forwards' ruck work (esp back row) and offensive defence to contest and unsettle these skills (what comes to mind as an analogue was the way Scotland at Murrayfield this year totally unsettled England's attack with ferocious, effective ruck work and productive offensive defence regularly turning over, dislodging or slowing England's ball)

- they have excellent defensive structures and read well defensive needs from broken play

= the Wallabies will need both excellence from their back three in a tactical kicking and - important - at least one line-breaking centre (and a good no 8) to cause 'productive chaos' in Ireland's line defence; just prodding and poking at their line and fast backline plays to width will likely not be productive enough on attack

 

[Derpus]

Just to this point: anyone who's studied the 2018 Ireland side knows:

- they are excellent at patient, long phase play in attack with low error rates and penalty counts

= we will need excellence in our forwards' ruck work (esp back row) and offensive defence to contest and unsettle these skills (what comes to mind as an analogue was the way Scotland at Murrayfield this year totally unsettled England's attack with ferocious, effective ruck work and productive offensive defence regularly turning over, dislodging or slowing England's ball)

- they have excellent defensive structures and read well defensive needs from broken play

= the Wallabies will need both excellence from their back three in a tactical kicking and - important - at least one line-breaking centre (and a good no 8) to cause 'productive chaos' in Ireland's line defence; just prodding and poking at their line and fast backline plays to width will likely not be productive enough on attack

Scotland did that to us in Australia brilliantly. I fully expect Ireland to do everything possible to fuck up our ball. Foley behind a pack going forwards and Foley behind a beaten pack is light and day.

I also expect a box kick every 3.5 seconds from Murray. None of which will be directed at Folau.

 

[RedsHappy]

Scotland did that to us in Australia brilliantly. I fully expect Ireland to do everything possible to fuck up our ball. Foley behind a pack going forwards and Foley behind a beaten pack is light and day.

I also expect a box kick every 3.5 seconds from Murray. None of which will be directed at Folau.

Whilst not negating our back line resources' qualities - which generally are looking quite good (bar kicking from hand, umm, well, yes...) - IMO, by and large, these coming Tests will be won and lost in the forwards where in intensity, skill and specialist coaching, it would seem that Ireland will likely have an edge. Maybe not in Test 1 - as jet lag and settling in etc can take a toll - but in Test 2 and 3, that edge will count.