Reds vs Sharks Rnd 4 2012

[Brisbok]

Yeah - just like the unstoppable Stormers were going to belt the Reds at Newlands last season......

No one said anything about the Sharks "belting" the Reds this time (except PB - but he is clearly trying to wind up you Reds fans). Qwerty has objectively outlined a few of the factors as to why he believes the Sharks might win and you have interpreted it as 'Reds bashing'.

How about outlining a couple of reasons why you think the Reds might win instead of just jumping on the defensive?

 

[MrTimms]

How about outlining a couple of reasons why you think the Reds might win instead of just jumping on the defensive?

I will.

The Reds have a potent backline and when it is fed quick ball can break most defensive structures. It has looked a little stale, some questioning Mike's ability to distribute the ball well enough. Moving Lucas to 10, on evidence of the final part of the game on the weekend, seems to change that. He is able to distribute better leaving Mike to play how he does best in taking the ball to the line. This should allow the best of the backline to be unleashed.

In the forwards, the changes Link has made, again previewed late last week, will stiffen their set piece up and allow that quick ball.

This is balanced by the Sharks vaunted defence with people claiming only letting two tries in as evidence of it being unbreakable. However, the two tries that have been scored came against the Lions. The Lions aren't renowned as prolific try scorers, so why did they break a defence that is unbreakable? Because it ISN'T unbreakable. The other two games have been against the Stormers (strong defence, weaker attack, not scoring tries is nothing unusual for them) and Bulls (again, a team happy to punt through as many penalty goals as they can, not prolific try scorers).

That is how the Reds will score their tries and rack up the points. The defensive patterns used by the Reds don't give many tries out, of the 4 scored against them this year, 2 (against the force) came from a ten minute lapse that doesn't happen often, the two against the Waratahs were probably tries that would have been scored against anyone. In general the line should hold. The Sharks showed against the Stormers that they can't cross the line against an organised defence.

On Balance there is no reason the Reds can't, or won't, win this one. Potentially by a bit.

 

[Brisbok]

I will.

The Reds have a potent backline and when it is fed quick ball can break most defensive structures. It has looked a little stale, some questioning Mike's ability to distribute the ball well enough. Moving Lucas to 10, on evidence of the final part of the game on the weekend, seems to change that. He is able to distribute better leaving Mike to play how he does best in taking the ball to the line. This should allow the best of the backline to be unleashed.

In the forwards, the changes Link has made, again previewed late last week, will stiffen their set piece up and allow that quick ball.

This is balanced by the Sharks vaunted defence with people claiming only letting two tries in as evidence of it being unbreakable. However, the two tries that have been scored came against the Lions. The Lions aren't renowned as prolific try scorers, so why did they break a defence that is unbreakable? Because it ISN'T unbreakable. The other two games have been against the Stormers (strong defence, weaker attack, not scoring tries is nothing unusual for them) and Bulls (again, a team happy to punt through as many penalty goals as they can, not prolific try scorers).

That is how the Reds will score their tries and rack up the points. The defensive patterns used by the Reds don't give many tries out, of the 4 scored against them this year, 2 (against the force) came from a ten minute lapse that doesn't happen often, the two against the Waratahs were probably tries that would have been scored against anyone. In general the line should hold. The Sharks showed against the Stormers that they can't cross the line against an organised defence.

On Balance there is no reason the Reds can't, or won't, win this one. Potentially by a bit.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. But I would like to dispute a couple of the points you have made. The "potent backline" of the Reds you refer to has racked up a total of 4 tries in 3 games - one of those games being against a very weak looking Force team and one against the defensive "might" of the Rebels. Secondly the "potent backline" you are referring to is basically a new backline starting their first game together this week.

The potent Reds backline of last year, was largely due to the game-breaking ability of Quade Cooper and his combination with Will Genia.

With respect to the Lions and their two tries against the Sharks, the Lions have never really had a problem scoring tries, their weakness has always been their defence. Last year in terms of points scored, they were the 9th best team.

There is no reason that the Reds can't win, you are correct. However there is no reason that the Sharks can't win at HOME either.

 

[MrTimms]

This is better than saying each other is trolling...

Agree the new backline hasn't had the chance to be labelled potent yet, but the parts certainly are, Ioane, Tapuai, Genia are proven, Harris, Lucas, Shipperley and Davies have all shown plenty to get excited about. It will be interesting to see what the sum of these parts can be.

Quade and Will's combination is being missed for sure.

Interesting about the Lions, I don't watch enough of their games, so didn't realise they scored that many. Still it proves that the defence isn't impenetrable, as some who keep pointing to only 2 tries as proof, claim.

Going to be a cracker either way.

Had a chat to one of the guys earlier and the weather has been good so hopefully we see a good spirited affair.

 

[Brisbok]

The sum of the individual parts is, more often than not, greater than what they produce when combined on the field - just ask the Stormers! With a backline that includes Jean de Villiers, Juan de Jonge (Jaque Fourie last year), Bryan Habana and Gio Aplon - all significant attacking threats in their own right - they sure do struggle to score tries! Similarly, I have a feeling the Reds without Quade Cooper will struggle to obtain the fluency in attack required to score plenty of tries.

But yes, should be a great game, one that can definitely go either way (there are a few of those this weekend aren't there?!). Looking forward to it.

 

[tranquility]

I will bet my lucky green hat on the Reds to be smiling after 80 minutes. This will be the game you see us step up the intensity, just like last year.

 

[qwerty51]

The Sharks made numerous breaks in that Stormers game, they cracked the Stormers defence out wide (something a lot of teams haven't been able to do) and just couldn't finish them off with poor hands often the case. The next week they put 32 points on the Lions who defended extremely well for most of the game (just look at the pressure they put on the Sharks with line speed and numbers). As for their defence, the Bulls and Stormers can definitely score tries, not sure why you said they're not known for them. I think they're building well and are targeting this game as a must win before they go on a very tough tour. Can't ignore their home record against overseas opposition, the last time they were beaten at home (overseas opposition) was by the Chiefs by 1 point back in the first round 2010.

 

[biggsy]

I doubt rocket will be defending in the front line.

He can defend better then he can kick.

 

[redstragic]

Last weekend it looked as though Link told them at half time that the next bloke to kick wouldn't be going to Durban because there was just about no kicking in the second half after some really terrible kicking in the first. With that in mind, maybe they intend not kicking with Rocket at the back.

 

[No4918]

Wouldn't worry too much about Rockets kicking ability. Link has shown against SA teams that he likes to keep the ball in hand and these selections seem to indicate it will be the same again. Given their success who can blame him.

 

[qwerty51]

That's all nice but you have to kick some times, especially without Quade to run you out now. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Sharks kick to the corners and chase well.

 

[Scotty]

It is possibly a bit of double bluff from Link. Put out a scary looking back three – probably the two fasters players in Aus rugby plus the strongest runner in Aus rugby – and say ‘kick to us if you want’. They will either a) kick poorly and be punished, b) kick well and get good field position or c) not kick at all. Maybe Link hopes for option c), so it becomes a ball in hand game (don’t we all hope for this!).

I suspect the mid-field bomb is going to cause us more issues than kicking to the corners. I wonder if Genia will be employed to try and take care of these.

 

[Linebacker_41]

Agree the new backline hasn't had the chance to be labelled potent yet, but the parts certainly are, Ioane, Tapuai, Genia are proven, Harris, Lucas, Shipperley and Davies have all shown plenty to get excited about. It will be interesting to see what the sum of these parts can be.

I dont think the problem is the backline. The forwards workrate in attack hasnt been ideal. Their forward structure in attack is poor. They are getting beaten by the defence in working around the corner to hold the opposition defensive line or to bend it themselves and they are not creating quick possession at the breakdown

In the last 2 years the Reds have only been able to unleash their backs when their forwards have outworked their opposition.

Defensively the Reds will not come off second best in the collision aspects of the game. However at the breakdown and the set peice I think the Sharks will dominate (god I hope not though). Holmes will do better in the scrum but I just wonder whether they are starting to miss the focus that having someone like Alec Evans brings to the scrum analysis. We all know Link is a master coach - but even master coaches run out of time in the day to focus on the details that even a lesser coach brings from concentrating on one aspect of play.

 

[Bowside]

I think objectively the sharks are favourites. But I've learnt better than to write off this supremely confident qld team. Link will have a plan, they will have a crack.

 

[RedsHappy]

I don't know who's going to win v the Sharks on SA Saturday.

But I do know one, very important, thing:

We have been here before. Virtually every game of 2011, much including the GF v CRU, there was a retinue of learned rugby observers and wise posters most of whom articulated, with great wadges of historical game facts at the applicable ground, trend lines, w-l ratios, turnover stats, tries data, weather forecasts, kicking scenarios, front forwards analyses, backline analyses, and every other manner of assessment, that, surely, the Reds would likely lose this time, and the line of history would not be broken. So sorry Reds, this one will just be too far for you, but we like the way you play.

Mostly, they all proved to be fuck all use in predicting the actual outcome. Superior game plans, a fine spark, and raw belief coupled with genuine team play right up to 79:59, found the right way home.

What was true then, could become again. We'll know soon enough.

 

[Sandpit Fan]

Wouldn't worry too much about Rockets kicking ability. Link has shown against SA teams that he likes to keep the ball in hand and these selections seem to indicate it will be the same again. Given their success who can blame him.

Not too worried about his kicking ability, more his catching ability under the high ball!

 

[Brisbok]

I don't know who's going to win v the Sharks on SA Saturday.

But I do know one, very important, thing:

We have been here before. Virtually every game of 2011, much including the GF v CRU, there was a retinue of learned rugby observers and wise posters most of whom articulated, with great wadges of historical game facts at the applicable ground, trend lines, w-l ratios, turnover stats, tries data, weather forecasts, kicking scenarios, front forwards analyses, backline analyses, and every other manner of assessment, that, surely, the Reds would likely lose this time, and the line of history would not be broken. So sorry Reds, this one will just be too far for you, but we like the way you play.

Mostly, they all proved to be fuck all use in predicting the actual outcome. Superior game plans, a fine spark, and raw belief coupled with genuine team play right up to 79:59, found the right way home.

What was true then, could become again. We'll know soon enough.

...because after all, they were champions last year, so why shouldn't they be again?! As I have said previously, the Reds know exactly how to build throughout the season - they've done it before and nothing has really changed since then!

 

[TOCC]

Sharks were undefeated at home last year against overseas opposition. Reds haven't won in Durban for a few years. You need to score tries to beat the Sharks at home, Reds haven't been doing that and the Sharks hadn't conceded a try in their first 2 games. Their attack looked good last week against a strong defence, backline is finally showing something. The bookies have it spot on.

Sharks by 6.

Everyone's entitled to a opinion.

QLD also hadn't won in NSW for years either... In regards to tries, i don't necessarily agree...

The Sharks touted defence is on the back of breakdown infringement, as such they have conceded 80% more penalties then the Reds in 2012, scored less and conceded more points.

I dont think Lions don't exactly have a strong defence either, the only team to concede more tries has been the Force.

Reds by 8

 

[cyclopath]

He can defend better then he can kick.

Not saying much. I like watching Rod put on the gas, but he can't kick for shit! Well, not that I've seen. But he can run.

 

[What2040]

I dont think the problem is the backline. The forwards workrate in attack hasnt been ideal. Their forward structure in attack is poor. They are getting beaten by the defence in working around the corner to hold the opposition defensive line or to bend it themselves and they are not creating quick possession at the breakdown

In the last 2 years the Reds have only been able to unleash their backs when their forwards have outworked their opposition.

Defensively the Reds will not come off second best in the collision aspects of the game. However at the breakdown and the set peice I think the Sharks will dominate (god I hope not though). Holmes will do better in the scrum but I just wonder whether they are starting to miss the focus that having someone like Alec Evans brings to the scrum analysis. We all know Link is a master coach - but even master coaches run out of time in the day to focus on the details that even a lesser coach brings from concentrating on one aspect of play.

Don't think that not having Alec there makes a bit of difference - Whilst Alec was a fantastic Scrum Doctor the operative word is 'was" Time catches up with all of us and am sure the forwards relate more to Mckenzie in respect of scrum technique etc than Alec.