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Rebels 2019

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Rock Lobster

Rock Lobster

Larry Dwyer (12)
First one didn't make it to the media and I have to be careful what I say. Was on the tour to SA and involved a Wallaby.
 
Rugbynutter39

Rugbynutter39

Michael Lynagh (62)
Rebels were not consistent enough this season to really deserve a place in the playoffs imho and that is where the blame lies, not with Coleman or any one individual.

Still 9th is good launchpad for next season and with some good recruits with To'omua and Naisarani ready to join the fold - and hopefully some better rugby smarts - it can be a better season where the Rebels make the playoffs and actually win games in the playoffs. I mean would anybody predict at this point the Rebels beating the Crusaders (and even just as unlikely imho for Sharks to have any chance of achieving that feat as well).
 
KevinO

KevinO

Geoff Shaw (53)
Mafi granted bail and will return to Melbourne, part of the bail conditions is his not allowed to talk to LT.
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Rebels3 said:
So the winner for the most Australian rugby moment of the year goes to Coleman for his lack of game management in not taking the points for a draw against the Jaguares mid season, to progress his side to the finals for the first time. If ever there was a moment that sums up Australian rugby with its lack of game awareness and too much bravado getting in the way of smarts, that moment sums it up better than any. Sad thing is many at the time and currently will not point this moment out as the turning point in the season to learn lessons from. It would of seen them qualify in 7th playing a game against a stuttering Lions team and all players returning for selection
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I was critical at the time because I thought they opted for a low percentage play (but my initial thinking on the maths was also wrong).

There are two ways to look at it. Firstly from a Rebels only perspective they had two options. Secure a win and go they go from 1 point to 4 points (+3) or the draw which was 1 point to 2 points (+1). Given the penalty was a gimme let's assume they are 100% likely to succeed with that option.

So on that basis they needed to be a better than one in three chance of scoring a try from the 5m lineout to make it worthwhile pushing for the win. In that situation you probably think it is a reasonable bet.

If you take into account the opposition's loss from taking the draw it worsens the proposition of going for the win.

A win for the Rebels is +3 points and a loss for the Jaguares -3 (6 point turnaround). Taking the draw is +1 for the Rebels and -2 for the Jaguares (3 point turnaround). On that basis it is only twice as beneficial to get the win compared to the draw so you'd need better than a 50% chance of scoring from the lineout to make it a good bet (which it is almost certainly a less than 50% chance of scoring).

Obviously you can't predict at the time exactly how things would have wound up at the end of the season, but maybe the conservative approach is generally better when you take into account that you are hurting your opposition on the ladder too.
 
oztimmay

oztimmay

Tony Shaw (54)
Staff member
Here's another thought:

If Izzy goes to the Reds, I expect the 'Tahs to go hard for Hodge or Maddocks. Unless they try and snag Meakes and push KB (Kurtley Beale) back to FB.
 
Rebels3

Rebels3

Jim Lenehan (48)
To'omua won't be available until June. So can't see Meakes etc. going off.

Sefa is the most likely to head somewhere in my eyes
 
Rebels3

Rebels3

Jim Lenehan (48)
Mickey Rummery said:
He certainly seems to be missing this season!! Doesn't seem as motivated?
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Think it's just more Maddocks has jumped him on the pecking order.

Have said this a few times but i genuinely believe he should look to move to either the Tahs or Brums. Him and Speight or Clark and him would be good for either team, plus Tupou is a quality prospect behind him. Would clear cap for a signing somewhere else more needed (cough cough Jones) and add to some good will from the Rebs letting him leave (if he wanted to), just like there was with the Lance move.
 
upthereds#!

upthereds#!

Peter Johnson (47)
Naivalu to Tahs - they desperately need a good replacement for Naiyaravoro. Also forget how late To'omua was rocking up so dw bout that!
 
KevinO

KevinO

Geoff Shaw (53)
I'd say Sefa would be one of the loyalist Rebels in the squad, if anything I could see hime having a massive NRC and coming back in 2019 fit and raring to go.

Also might be worth moving him to 13 if fit, was selected for NRC and played 13 for most of club rugby. To good of a player to waste on the bench and 13 seems to be our weakest spot in the back line.
 
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