Tex
Greg Davis (50)
Exactly! Mates I entered the season with the expectation of winning a couple of games and building for next year, with a longer-term goal of player retention.
It's all fuggen apples so far babey!
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Exactly! Mates I entered the season with the expectation of winning a couple of games and building for next year, with a longer-term goal of player retention.
It's all fuggen apples so far babey!
Rebels3
Jim Lenehan (48)
Reading some of the comments on the different threads about the Rebels is quite funny. A loss to the Tahs (in Sydney) on one of the hottest recorded days to have ever had a professional rugby match played on and then lose to the very in form best team in the competition and suddenly we aren't that good. Reality is at the end of next week we will most likely be 5 wins 5 bonus points from 7 games. That'll leave us essentially needing 3 wins from the last 9 games to make the playoffs, with one of them at home against the Sunwolves (which should be another bonus point game). The Rebels aren't as good as many were talking them up to be, but surely aren't as bad/lucky as many are now saying.
I don't personally think we will win the conference but can honestly see us making the finals as a top 8 finisher.
Happy days if you ask me.
I don't personally think we will win the conference but can honestly see us making the finals as a top 8 finisher.
Happy days if you ask me.
Zero_Cool
Arch Winning (36)
I do tend to agree it'll be hard to fall out of the 8 given you should have minimum two more wins (Sunwolves) and should get the win against the Brumbies; likely another against the away Jaguars. So that should be good for around 18 points so I'd expect another 10 minimum likely 15. That would put them on 30 to 35, given the comp structure this year the cut off should be the midpoint expecting we don't get a very odd distribution (the top 8 being significantly better than the bottom 7) we can expect a 50% win rate enough to get to finals (30ish points).
Obviously this doesn't account for bonus points but we can assume that they will follow a largely normal distribution (for the middle teams) and so we can largely ignore them for these purposes but if we weren't to we could expect around an additional 5 or so points from the bonus points.
So our cut off is likely to be at most 35 points. So it's more likely than not. But they aren't at 35 points yet.
The Rebels having 4 bonus points from 6 games is a big thing. The winning bonus point is much harder to get now and you can't get two losing bonus points so the total number of bonus points is substantially lower than it used to be.
Zero_Cool
Arch Winning (36)
I actually really like the suggestion that the losing bonus point take away one of the 'winning' points so if you give away the losing bonus point you get 3 instead of 4. At the moment it feels like there is no punishment for giving away that losing bonus point.
Huh? Where has this suggestion been seriously made?
I think it is a ridiculous concept that a win by 7 or less points is less valuable than a win by more points.
The change in the try bonus point to being 3+ tries ahead rather than 4 tries for either team was a good one. It was a reasonable concept to encourage attacking rugby but I don't think that is necessary any more. Generally attacking rugby is winning rugby anyway.
GoMelbRebels
Nicholas Shehadie (39)
I consider myself to be sometimes too optimistic about our team, but even this year with the roster we have, I have kept a realistic outlook for what I’m calling, year 1.
I’m just enjoying having a team and watching them play.
James Pettifer
Jim Clark (26)
Really? The Wallabies played 28 games over the past 2 years. Of those, 18 players were in the 23 for 18 or more games
jimmydubs
Dave Cowper (27)
Wallabies have been pretty ropey in that 2 year period. And 18/23 in 18/28; is that a lot or a little? Regardless let’s see how they get on. From the outside it’s hard to know for certain if it’s just the team needing time for the gamplan or headspace issues
Edit:
James Pettifer
Jim Clark (26)
Well, 18/23 in 18/28 is a lot better than the Rebels would have (for example). I can't really be bothered going through all the games or finding a stats summary, but of the 23 in the first game last year, only 7 were in the 23 for the first game this year (would have probably been a couple more but for injuries but includes Maddocks and Uelese who were making their debut). For those counting, 8 were from the Force in their first game last year and in the Rebels 23 for the first game this year.
But yeah, time will tell whether it is the team needing to build together more as a team.
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
You get my point though? People can relax with the expectations of immediate success when there are so many variables in a match.
Rebels3
Jim Lenehan (48)
Points also create illusion, something rugby needs to get better at.
Zero_Cool
Arch Winning (36)
We need to get better at creating illusions or create less illusions? Or would it be okay if our illusions were more realistic and we couldn't tell they were illusions.
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
Me too comrade. it would have helped the ledger last year!
Rebels3
Jim Lenehan (48)
Depends on the context. With regards to the bye/points/overall table points indicate success. Success generally has correlation with fans. Its why i am a fan of the top 8, it brings an illusion that teams are succeeding, the AFL/NRL for example generally has 80-90% of their teams make at least 1 finals appearance in a 3 year span. It just helps engage fans and leads to prosperity, on top of this the top teams still manage to win the comps.
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
Interesting angle, I like it. Every now and then you get a Western Bulldogs who get a sniff and pull a fairytale out of their behinds and all is good and glorious in the sporting world.
James Pettifer
Jim Clark (26)
The AFL is much more extreme on this though than other competitions. With the draft and salary caps, each team pretty much has an opportunity to be a potential flag winner every decade or so. A good team pretty much gets 3 years at the top before they start getting hit by the rubber band effect. Hawthorn was a bit of an exception with 5 years in the top 3 but now they have dropped down to 12 - and they knew it was going to happen and started making plans for the rebuild phase letting go some more senior players early to let the rebuild start sooner (that said, according to a talk I went to from the coach, they lost more than they expected - they offered a few options to go with the thought that they more would stick around than did).
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