RC5: Springbokke vs Wallabies @ PE

[Lorenzo]

I think the problem with this is the assumption that we can just change a few numbers on backs and this will all start to work like clockwork.

Beale, Foley and (shock) To'omua are all decent players with limitations. The number on their back may help a little bit with how those limitations are managed, but it won't turn them into world-beaters.

It seems these three will all be either in the XV or on the bench as we approach the World Cup.

I think all three are good players, and hope we can find a scheme that brings out their talents in the best possible way. I think that's the best we can hope for right now.
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I haven't seen this assumption in play on this board for a while, yet its frequently rebutted (usually with the incredibly tired deckchairs-on-the-titanic meme).

I agree with the rest of your post, but lately on this board people are allowing perfection to to be the enemy of progress.

I don't think we are going to see anything amazing until the coach and all his staff are shown the door. By all available relevant statistical measures, this coaching team has underperformed since the '15 world cup. Yes, they did well in 15 (although they were rewarded as if they won the tournament, which they did not) but having had the 3 years since then to shape the side as they see fit, we have gone backwards. They've shown zero indications of being able to pivot or adapt. We need a reboot.

However, it's safe to assume we have them for another 12 months. So that being the case, there are some pretty damn obvious areas in which we can begin to claw back some dignity even if improving those areas won't get us winning against the ABs regularly.

1. Kicking for territory. Save for injury, there should be a superior out-of-hand kicker to Foley on the field at all times. Refer to the work of Pollard two weeks ago and how he could clear to the 40 (and get touch) from his own in goal area. Let's have some of that.

2. Midfield defence. Beale is not a test defender if he has to spend any time at all inside of the wing. Remove him from there.

Personally, I think a Foley-To'omua combination is the no-brainer answer given who is currently available. Foley has actually made a line break and put someone in for a try this season (Hodge against the ABs), which is more than anyone else has done. To'omua can stop them in their tracks, which has implications for the next phase.

 

[barbarian]

Agree on all counts, Lorenzo.

I'd also add to #1 to stop playing rugby in our own fucking 22, and generally manage our field position a lot better than we do currently. That's a Cheika problem far more than a Foley/Beale/To'omua problem IMO.
.

 

[Brumbieman]

My team

Sio
Fainga'a
AAA
Arnold
Rodda
Cottrell
Pocock
Timu

Genia
Foley
Banks
To'omua
Hodge
Folau
DHP

Robertson
TPN (20mins impact at the end)
Thor
Coleman
Hanigan
Hooper
Gordon
Beale

 

[Quick Hands]

Not so, Derpus. Practically all the rusted on Tahs' supporters here will tell you til they're blue in the face that Foley is the best and only No 10 in the country. Fortunately, there are many more supporters from elsewhere who see through the bias and it appears that the truth is slowly dawning on Cheika as well.

ATM we would be better served with To'omua at 10 and Foley on the bench. To'omua is a better all round footballer than Foley. And then it needs to be persevered with until new combinations are bedded in giving the players opportunity to bring out their best. Same goes for a couple of spots in the forwards, but that is another topic.

I'm glad you said "practically all".

 

[Strewthcobber]

So how do you stop the boks?
Looking at how they've scored tries in the last couple of games:-
* 2 x rolling mauls
* 1 intercept and 1 quick line-out turnover
* 2 tries from forwards out wide in the back-line providing an extra man
* 1 from repeated phase play

so stop the turnovers and stop the line-ouot mauls - you're going to go a long way to beating them.

How do you score against them?
* 2 x rolling mauls
* 1 turnover of a line-out
* 3 forwards out wide making the difference (counted Tui for Hooper's try here)
* 2 back-line movements

 

[PaarlBok]

So how do you stop the boks?
Looking at how they've scored tries in the last couple of games:-
* 2 x rolling mauls
* 1 intercept and 1 quick line-out turnover
* 2 tries from forwards out wide in the back-line providing an extra man
* 1 from repeated phase play

so stop the turnovers and stop the line-ouot mauls - you're going to go a long way to beating them.

How do you score against them?
* 2 x rolling mauls
* 1 turnover of a line-out
* 3 forwards out wide making the difference (counted Tui for Hooper's try here)
* 2 back-line movements

To beat the Boks is simple.
Score more points.
To score more points you need to dominate 1st Phase.
Easy as pie.

I have a feeling the Boks will blast you off the park before half time.

Boks by 15+

 

[PaarlBok]

South Africa – probable: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 André Esterhuizen, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.

 

[Brumby Runner]

To beat the Boks is simple.
Score more points.
To score more points you need to dominate 1st Phase.
Easy as pie.

I have a feeling the Boks will blast you off the park before half time.

Boks by 15+

Are you actually saying the Boks to win by 65, given you always give the Wallabies 50 points start anyway?

 

[PaarlBok]

South Africa
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Substitutes: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Damian Willemse

 

[ShtinaTina]

 

[Quick Hands]

No real surprises here.

Flat line rush defence from the Boks will send KB (Kurtley Beale) sideways.

Not sure why Phipps is still in the 23

 

[TSR]

I don’t get the point of Coleman, Rodda, Arnold & Simmons all being in the one team. Especially with a 5-3 split.

 

[Joe Blow]

Would have been a good opportunity to give Cottrell a run. Hanigan can also play in the second row.

 

[Derpus]

I don’t get the point of Coleman, Rodda, Arnold & Simmons all being in the one team. Especially with a 5-3 split.

I'm dreadfully sorry to say that Simmons is covering 6. In what universe is Simmons a better option than Cottrell at ?

The Beale at 10 thing was such a catastrophic failure, why the hell is he repeating it?

Struggling to see the rationale.

Nice to see what Tupou can bring. That's a good front and reserve 3.

Glad to see he's retained DHP at 15.

Would prefer Gordon over Phipps but i don't think Gordon has a chance until post RWC which may be too late.

 

[Strewthcobber]

How much time has Cottrell had in camp? Only possible explanation is he's not up to speed with the Wallaby systems as yet

 

[Lorenzo]

there are systems?

 

[Brumby Runner]

On the RC thread, WOB makes the point that the ABs most often play, and play better, with two fullbacks, one playing on the wing. Shame that Cheika doesn't experiment with that setup. Some might say that he has when DHP was on the wing with Folau at fullback. But Folau is essentially what WOB describes as a strike winger, playing at fullback, so in effect the Wallabies have been playing two strike wingers, one often out of position, and a fullback. It would have been encouraging to see Koroibete given a rest with either Banks (preferably) or Maddocks on the wing. I think Banks is the more traditional fullback, similar to DHP, but he would offer a better, bigger boot than Maddocks I think. And plenty of pace as well.

 

[dru]

there are systems?

It takes a special mind of genious to coordinate running around like headless chooks.

 

[Derpus]

On the RC thread, WOB makes the point that the ABs most often play, and play better, with two fullbacks, one playing on the wing. Shame that Cheika doesn't experiment with that setup. Some might say that he has when DHP was on the wing with Folau at fullback. But Folau is essentially what WOB describes as a strike winger, playing at fullback, so in effect the Wallabies have been playing two strike wingers, one often out of position, and a fullback. It would have been encouraging to see Koroibete given a rest with either Banks (preferably) or Maddocks on the wing. I think Banks is the more traditional fullback, similar to DHP, but he would offer a better, bigger boot than Maddocks I think. And plenty of pace as well.

Yeah, in an ideal world it would be 11. Hodge 14. Folau 15. DHP. But i could live with Banks or Maddocks in at 11 in the absence of Hodge.

Pretty tired of Koro shooting out of the defensive line and missing 3 of every 4 hits.

Look at me agreeing with you BR.

 

[Up the Guts]

Yeah, in an ideal world it would be 11. Hodge 14. Folau 15. DHP. But i could live with Banks or Maddocks in at 11 in the absence of Hodge.

Pretty tired of Koro shooting out of the defensive line and missing 3 of every 4 hits.

Look at me agreeing with you BR.

There was actually some decent analysis on Fox on how much more work Koroibete is being made to do than the other left wingers in the RC. As we play Folau and Beale in the backfield Koroibete always has to cover the wing on the open side which would fatigue him and means he’s liable to be caught out of position when he’s constantly roving from one side of the field to another. The tactic might work better against NH teams but in the RC where teams are throwing the ball around more the tactic looks to be breaking down. Combine this with the fact that TK and Kerevi aren’t there to talk to him in Fijian and we’re really not using Koroibete effectively.