Queensland Reds v British and Irish Lions - Wed 2nd Jul 25 8pm

[Major Tom]

Heard they're expecting close to 50k.

 

[Ignoto]

With 4 locks in the 23 I'm not sure that part matters too much though.

No backrow cover is the only issue Wilso.

I haven't tracked whether Seru has played any club matches, but he's had a lengthy spell on the bench. So carrying two 2 locks means you need Uru to last the full 80.

Given we struggled competing at the breakdown at the Crusaders, I can see us needing fresh legs coming on to help sure up the rucks in the 50th+ minutes. Hard to say whether that means LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) is on the bench or Uru is to cover that 6 / 8 spot?

 

[drewprint]

Uru has played a couple of games recently for Souths.

 

[Wilson]

We've run that 4 lock setup a few times this year with Smith ending up at 6 (I think). I'd back him as backrow cover over Vest, who is the only other option in the squad

 

[Reds Rick]

Think it was usually Canham ending up at 6 but could be wrong

 

[Brumby Runner]

Going to be interesting to see who is released from the Wallabies squad for this one. I don't think it'll be too many given the 8 reds named but Schmidt did suggest Faessler could be to get game time. Unfortunately Hooker is one of the stronger positions in the squad depth wise, so it doesn't move the needle as far as others would.

Beyond that, I'd think that maybe Nonggorr, Lynagh and possibly one of Daugunu or Paisami might miss the 23 against Fiji and be available, I think any of these guys could come in for at least bench roles for the Reds on shortened prep, but it does require Schmidt to make a relatively early call on his 23.

All of this working under the assumption that Schmidt will be aiming to name something close to full strength against Fiji, if he wants to go a bit more experimental it's a harder to predict whose in or out.

Does the Fiji test earn ranking points? If so I'd be surprised if he went experimental.

 

[Brumby Runner]

That's some big ins on the prop side of things - could go Hodgman/Toomaga-Allen to start and Ross/Fa'agase on the bench for what would probably be our strongest prop grouping all year.

 

[Brumby Runner]

That looks like 3 LHPs Wilson. Very slim chance Nonggorr would be made available but is there not another THP to support JTA (Jeffery Toomaga-Allen)?

 

[Sword of Justice]

Does the Fiji test earn ranking points? If so I'd be surprised if he went experimental.

It’s our only warm up for the Lions so frankly I’d be disappointed if it’s not Schmidt’s first choice team, allowing for some 50-50ish calls.

 

[Wilson]

That looks like 3 LHPs Wilson. Very slim chance Nonggorr would be made available but is there not another THP to support JTA (Jeffery Toomaga-Allen) (Jeffery Toomaga-Allen)?

Fa'agase plays both sides and has done so throughout his career. The alternative is a 21 year old Bloomfield and I don't think he's up to Fa'agase's level there yet.

 

[JRugby2]

I think the Reds are probably the best chance we have of a Super Rugby victory over the Lions.

And the 2025 Super Rugby title according to me in February.

Anyway - this is the type of parochial QLD arrogance that pumps through my veins and I'm here for it. Can't see the kittens getting within 30.

 

[Adam84]

I get where you're coming from, but all but one of Salakaia-Loto's starts this year were with Canham, so I don't think Kiss sees any issue pairing them. The exception was with Smith (in Salakaia-loto's first start) and he's also the lock I think is most likely to split up a Canham/Salakaia-Loto pairing, given he is the most capable of going 80. With 4 locks in the 23 I'm not sure that part matters too much though.

Yeah but our set-piece didn't exactly go too well during those games did they, lineout was woeful.
I think Kiss see's strong potential in both as a pairing, and that's reflected by the fact that they're both signed beyond this season compared to the others, but Smith/Blyth IMO offer a bit more in terms of set-piece fundamentals, whereas LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) and Canham are more athletic.

 

[Wilson]

Yeah but our set-piece didn't exactly go too well during those games did they, lineout was woeful.
I think Kiss see's strong potential in both as a pairing, and that's reflected by the fact that they're both signed beyond this season compared to the others, but Smith/Blyth IMO offer a bit more in terms of set-piece fundamentals, whereas LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) and Canham are more athletic.

For the Salakaia-Loto/Canham pairing it was only really an issue at home against the Force, outside of that it ran above 80%, with two games at 100% (Blues, tahs).

We also had 100% scum success across 3 of the 5 games where Salakaia-Loto and Canham started together (Blues, tahs, Force). Unfortunately I don't have stats specifically for when they were on the field together though.

 

[liquor box]

I wonder if we will have a backup for HMP on the bench?

 

[Wilson]

I wonder if we will have a backup for HMP on the bench?

Henry/Campbell will be the cover for mine. I just don't see anyone else offering more then Henry could from the bench.

 

[Strewthcobber]

For the Salakaia-Loto/Canham pairing it was only really an issue at home against the Force, outside of that it ran above 80%, with two games at 100% (Blues, tahs).

80% is still woeful.

85% is a pass mark and they weren't there

 

[Wilson]

80% is still woeful.

85% is a pass mark and they weren't there

To be clear the lineout success for those games was:

55% v the Force
82% v the Chiefs
92% v the Brumbies
100% v the Blues
100% v the tahs

Which for the most part looks a bit like problem solved after some initial hiccups.

 

[Adam84]

For the Salakaia-Loto/Canham pairing it was only really an issue at home against the Force, outside of that it ran above 80%, with two games at 100% (Blues, tahs).

We also had 100% scum success across 3 of the 5 games where Salakaia-Loto and Canham started together (Blues, tahs, Force). Unfortunately I don't have stats specifically for when they were on the field together though.

Stats are part of the analysis, sure, against the Force they completely fell apart so i don't think you can exclude that stat. They lost 9 lineouts that match alone.

In either case, i just don't think either of these two are strong lineout practitioner's, this role fell to Blyth/Smith when they were on the field, and neither are particularly strong tighthead scrummagers. What they do well is outside of these areas, hence my comment about off-setting these two.

 

[Strewthcobber]

To be clear the lineout success for those games was:

55% v the Force
82% v the Chiefs
92% v the Brumbies
100% v the Blues
100% v the tahs

Which for the most part looks a bit like problem solved after some initial hiccups.

Fair call. In any case only way these two get better is by playing together. Bring it on

 

[Brumby Runner]

And the 2025 Super Rugby title according to me in February.

Anyway - this is the type of parochial QLD arrogance that pumps through my veins and I'm here for it. Can't see the kittens getting within 30.

Also the parochial arrogance that pumps up over-the-top responses from the more belligerent fans of other teams. The Reds might well have a good chance of toppling the Lions next week, but many would also question it being "the best".

Still, go you Reds. I hope we can all put up competitive performances against them and better still snag few wins.