Queensland Reds 2025

[liquor box]

Smith is a much better player than Blyth and seems to be getting better.

Ospreys are taking swings at guys. Didn't they want Tom Hooper?

View attachment 21384
What a place to go play.

I think Blythe can still get better if he gets the opportunities for the same playing time that Smith gets.

 

[LeCheese]

I think Blythe can still get better if he gets the opportunities for the same playing time that Smith gets.

I mean, according to All Rugby, they basically have very similar minutes played over their careers... Smith obviously favoured in recent seasons, but I don't think it's fair to say Blyth hasn't been given an opportunity.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

I think Blythe can still get better if he gets the opportunities for the same playing time that Smith gets.

Maybe. He has been in the Reds set up since the 17/18 season and a bit of a mainstay from 18-22. 2020 and onwards for Smith. At first I wasn't high on Smith either but his game and physical development is just getting better.

I'd have Smith pretty comfortably ahead of him on the must retain list myself.

 

[Strewthcobber]

So.....will the Reds attempt a penalty goal this year? Or is 100% kicks to the corner the new moneyball reality we live in now

 

[JRugby2]

So.....will the Reds attempt a penalty goal this year? Or is 100% kicks to the corner the new moneyball reality we live in now

Feels like penalty goals would better align with "he gets on base" honestly

 

[Strewthcobber]

OK, potentially more interesting question then. Why haven't the Reds been going for goal?

a) there is no strategy, the captain has thought lineout was a better option in each case

b) there is a strategy that Kiss and Brad Davis have developed based on feels

c) the strategy has been mathematically develped and built up based on an expected points analysis by someone (?)

 

[PhilClinton]

I reckon it's something like (C)

I am sure someone has run the numbers about the full team obstruction (maul) being something like an 80%+ success rate for scoring a try, penalty try or getting an opponent sin binned. A much better outcome than a penalty goal if you can collect more points and/or get an opposition player removed from the field.

 

[Ignoto]

Given the high scores that is happening in super rugby, I would imagine it's C. The Reds believe you need to maximise the points you accumulate in order to win a Super Rugby game.

It seems like wrestling momentum back in a game is extremely hard to do so you need to strike while the iron is hot.

Only downside to that is games like the chiefs, great defence and horrible playing conditions probably mean you need to adapt.

Perhaps they were also worried about taking the 3 and having a kick off and still being stuck in their half with a man down.

 

[chiraag]

I'd say it's (c) for sure, and think it generally makes a lot of sense. You'd only need to be converting a kick for the corner into a try about 50% of the time to be better off not taking the 3. You also generally get more than 1 shot to convert a kick for the corner with opposition teams infringing, increase your chances of the opposition getting carded and converting territory into as many points as possible. Except when conditions are tough, your lineout isn't working or it's towards the end of the game and 3 guaranteed points are what is required, I think it's what all teams should generally be doing.

	Probability of Success	Points	Effective Points
Kick for Corner	50%	6.5	3.25
Penalty Kick	90%	3	2.7

 

[LeCheese]

Reds' line out and maul had been pretty much spot on until the last couple of weeks. No qualms with the decision making whatsoever.

 

[dru]

Reds' line out and maul had been pretty much spot on until the last couple of weeks. No qualms with the decision making whatsoever.

I have no qualms with the corner calls either. At the same time I think your post underplays the issues in our line out. Real work is needed to achieve something half way effective.

 

[LeCheese]

I have no qualms with the corner calls either. At the same time I think your post underplays the issues in our line out. Real work is needed to achieve something half way effective.

Eh, I thought it had been going mostly okay until the last two weeks' clusterfucks - especially those resulting in a maul

 

[Strewthcobber]

The Reds are still coming dead last still in Optajohnny's rankings of the lineout success rate for the 53 teams in the major comps they track.

 

[liquor box]

I'd say it's (c) for sure, and think it generally makes a lot of sense. You'd only need to be converting a kick for the corner into a try about 50% of the time to be better off not taking the 3. You also generally get more than 1 shot to convert a kick for the corner with opposition teams infringing, increase your chances of the opposition getting carded and converting territory into as many points as possible. Except when conditions are tough, your lineout isn't working or it's towards the end of the game and 3 guaranteed points are what is required, I think it's what all teams should generally be doing.

	Probability of Success	Points	Effective Points
Kick for Corner	50%	6.5	3.25
Penalty Kick	90%	3	2.7

I think an even better option is immediately try for a field goal, if you get it, you have 3 points, if you miss you have advantage and kick to the corner.

 

[TSR]

Eh, I thought it had been going mostly okay until the last two weeks' clusterfucks - especially those resulting in a maul

I feel like it’s been shaky most weeks. I figure it’s a bit of a by product of the rotation in the forward pack.

But there are two parts. Securing clean ball is a bit worried about but I am hoping will improve significantly over the back half.

But a couple of the errors last week like when Canham brought it down into McReight’s head I figure should be fixed pretty easily.

 

[Sully]

It might have something to do with three try bonus points.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I think also the new non-compete non-straight lineout interpretation plays into it too, and adds to a greater chance of scoring as teams inevitably don't compete. One less thing to stuff up

If I was coaching a team against the Reds, I'd be competing every lineout. Their maul is so good that they probably score anyway, even if you don't compete

 

[PhilClinton]

The Reds scrum has also been very solid for most of the year. With the lineout a bit off, it'll be interesting to see if they opt for more scrums off penalties when they're within 10m of the try line.

 

[Strewthcobber]

The Reds scrum has also been very solid for most of the year. With the lineout a bit off, it'll be interesting to see if they opt for more scrums off penalties when they're within 10m of the try line.

According to OptaJohnny, the Reds scrum is at 97% retention, and haven't given a penalty up on their own ball yet. Best in the comp

The Brumbies are pretty much the same. Great battle on the weekend!

 

[JRugby2]

OK, potentially more interesting question then. Why haven't the Reds been going for goal?

a) there is no strategy, the captain has thought lineout was a better option in each case

b) there is a strategy that Kiss and Brad Davis have developed based on feels

c) the strategy has been mathematically develped and built up based on an expected points analysis by someone (?)

It could be C? They do work closely with some Data Analysis academics at QUT and maybe there is a bit of moneyball going on as you and @chiraag suggest. Interesting thoughts honestly.