Queensland Reds 2024

[Sword of Justice]

I really hope Tom Wright isn’t considered for higher honours this year. He’s one of the best Super players every year and every year he has a brain explosion in Gold and gets dropped. His Wallaby portfolio is long enough to leave him out based on a reasonable expectation that he won’t perform adequately and has been for several years frankly.

 

[rugbyAU]

In my book, Kellaway has been overtaken for the fullback spot by Tom Wright. Wright has been the best No 15 in the Aussie sides this year and is one of a very few players with the ability to break open the opposition defensive line. Kellaway otoh has shown some defensive weaknesses in his game and a propensity to selfishness when running with the ball. I think he has to be considered for a wing spot where he is better suited.

Possibly I wanted that last year Wright at 15, Kellaway at 14 where they've both played a lot before but whether Wright can rid the errors out of his game is the question

 

[Dctarget]

In my book, Kellaway has been overtaken for the fullback spot by Tom Wright. Wright has been the best No 15 in the Aussie sides this year and is one of a very few players with the ability to break open the opposition defensive line. Kellaway otoh has shown some defensive weaknesses in his game and a propensity to selfishness when running with the ball. I think he has to be considered for a wing spot where he is better suited.

Probably helps that Kellaway hasn’t played the last two games. In the four games he has played he clearly outplayed Wright in the first three, dominating the TOTW. Including the game that the Rebels lost 3-30 to Wright’s Brumbies. Not sure how he could’ve overtaken him just yet.

 

[mst]

Possibly I wanted that last year Wright at 15, Kellaway at 14 where they've both played a lot before but whether Wright can rid the errors out of his game is the question

It must be an Australian thing, but our risk aversion is odd. The Kiwi's and Boks both accepted far more errors from the players trying to create options and generally as the rewards come. Willie Le Roux is a perfect example. He does many dumb things but also some really good things. Maybe it's our metrics, or what we think they should be that are off, as other nations seem to have more success with more errors.

 

[Derpus]

It must be an Australian thing, but our risk aversion is odd. The Kiwi's and Boks both accepted far more errors from the players trying to create options and generally as the rewards come. Willie Le Roux is a perfect example. He does many dumb things but also some really good things. Maybe it's our metrics, or what we think they should be that are off, as other nations seem to have more success with more errors.

Yeah Ben Smith was notoriously error prone.

 

[dru]

Probably helps that Kellaway hasn’t played the last two games. In the four games he has played he clearly outplayed Wright in the first three, dominating the TOTW. Including the game that the Rebels lost 3-30 to Wright’s Brumbies. Not sure how he could’ve overtaken him just yet.

Completely. Wright did have a fabulous game against the Reds but it it no ways lumps him forward as "clear" Wallaby 15. Some of the voiced Brumby support for Wallabies is excessive. As usual.

Wright needs to keep that form going, and I hope he does, but right now I still have Kellaway ahead of him.

 

[wamberal99]

Completely. Wright did have a fabulous game against the Reds but it it no ways lumps him forward as "clear" Wallaby 15. Some of the voiced Brumby support for Wallabies is excessive. As usual.

Wright needs to keep that form going, and I hope he does, but right now I still have Kellaway ahead of him.

Wright has more upside than Kellaway, I believe.

 

[dru]

Wright has more upside than Kellaway, I believe.

Yes perhaps. Not sure that is the basis of the claims that he stand clearly above his opposition right now. It can only be good for the Wallabies if he continues to show more of that upside.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Completely. Wright did have a fabulous game against the Reds but it it no ways lumps him forward as "clear" Wallaby 15. Some of the voiced Brumby support for Wallabies is excessive. As usual.

Wright needs to keep that form going, and I hope he does, but right now I still have Kellaway ahead of him.

Unusually Dru, I disagree with you on your assessment of Andrew Kellaway this year. The Rebels are having a fairly uninspiring season (not unexpected in the circumstances) and AK (Andrew Kellaway) has really not put his stamp on any of their performances. He has missed multiple tackles that previously he was good to make, and he has either been utterly selfish and died with the ball in good attacking position or else sent a no-look pass to nobody or over the touchline. By his own standards he has been poor, and looks entirely like a winger playing out of position at fullback.

On the other hand, Tom Wright has been instrumental in all the Brumbies wins (5 in case somebody might have missed it) and is the most threatening ball runner in all of the Aussie SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) sides this year. He was probably MOTM yesterday and was in contention for that award in all other games this year. He has been consistently very good and an important part of the Brumbies currently running as the top Aussie side in SRP (Super Rugby Pacific). His form is clearly better than any contenders for the Wallabies' No 15 spot right now. Whether that continues, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[dru]

Unusually Dru, I disagree with you on your assessment of Andrew Kellaway this year. The Rebels are having a fairly uninspiring season (not unexpected in the circumstances) and AK (Andrew Kellaway) (Andrew Kellaway) has really not put his stamp on any of their performances. He has missed multiple tackles that previously he was good to make, and he has either been utterly selfish and died with the ball in good attacking position or else sent a no-look pass to nobody or over the touchline. By his own standards he has been poor, and looks entirely like a winger playing out of position at fullback.

On the other hand, Tom Wright has been instrumental in all the Brumbies wins (5 in case somebody might have missed it) and is the most threatening ball runner in all of the Aussie SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) (Super Rugby Pacific) sides this year. He was probably MOTM yesterday and was in contention for that award in all other games this year. He has been consistently very good and an important part of the Brumbies currently running as the top Aussie side in SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) (Super Rugby Pacific). His form is clearly better than any contenders for the Wallabies' No 15 spot right now. Whether that continues, we'll have to wait and see.

I have crossed this to the Wallaby thread - this is afterall the Reds page.

 

[TSR]

So - 6 rounds in. How do we all feel?

If I’d been told at the start we’d be 3-3 I’d be pretty happy. We seem to have come off the boil a bit but, personally, I’m still pretty happy with how we are going. By no means are we playing at our best - even in the wins there have been plenty of missed opportunities but we are making some solid progress and a few players like Lynagh, Grealy and Daly have shown they can play at this level.

We do need to sort a couple of things though to kick on from here. In no particular order -
- lineout has gone from being very reliable in the first 4 rounds to shaky in the last 2. Both the Force & Brumbies has some success targeting us there
- breakdown work needs to be more precise
- we need a bit more punch from the bench. Getting Hodgman and Fa’agase back will help, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Blyth and Brial get an opportunity. I think Daly & Bryant have both been decent but I’d like to see if the others can offer more
- in a similiar vein Kiss doesn’t seem to have a lot of confidence to throw Thomas on for 15-20 to up the pace of the game. I know McDermott is skipper and competes every second he is out there but it’s a tough gig for a 9 to be impactful in rhe last 15. Wouldn’t mind seeing Werchon get a shot
- really hoping Campbell can get back to his form of two years ago as I think that would add a lot to our attack. Also hoping Vunivalu can really kick on and I thought there were some good signs early but still along way from where I thought he would be and I don’t continue to hold much hope

Given we’ve lost the last 2 I think it’s a really good time for our bye. I know pro rugby is often about getting back on the horse but I feel like a chance to re-set is a big plus.

Then the next 2 games become really important if we want to compete for top 4. Which I am not sure if that is realistic for this sqaud at present, but certainly is mathematically on the current table.

 

[LeCheese]

So - 6 rounds in. How do we all feel?

If I’d been told at the start we’d be 3-3 I’d be pretty happy. We seem to have come off the boil a bit but, personally, I’m still pretty happy with how we are going. By no means are we playing at our best - even in the wins there have been plenty of missed opportunities but we are making some solid progress and a few players like Lynagh, Grealy and Daly have shown they can play at this level.

We do need to sort a couple of things though to kick on from here. In no particular order -
- lineout has gone from being very reliable in the first 4 rounds to shaky in the last 2. Both the Force & Brumbies has some success targeting us there
- breakdown work needs to be more precise
- we need a bit more punch from the bench. Getting Hodgman and Fa’agase back will help, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Blyth and Brial get an opportunity. I think Daly & Bryant have both been decent but I’d like to see if the others can offer more
- in a similiar vein Kiss doesn’t seem to have a lot of confidence to throw Thomas on for 15-20 to up the pace of the game. I know McDermott is skipper and competes every second he is out there but it’s a tough gig for a 9 to be impactful in rhe last 15. Wouldn’t mind seeing Werchon get a shot
- really hoping Campbell can get back to his form of two years ago as I think that would add a lot to our attack. Also hoping Vunivalu can really kick on and I thought there were some good signs early but still along way from where I thought he would be and I don’t continue to hold much hope

Given we’ve lost the last 2 I think it’s a really good time for our bye. I know pro rugby is often about getting back on the horse but I feel like a chance to re-set is a big plus.

Then the next 2 games become really important if we want to compete for top 4. Which I am not sure if that is realistic for this sqaud at present, but certainly is mathematically on the current table.

Only really dissatisfied with the Force loss - Canes and Brums were still solid showings. Playing our best footy in some time and feeling good about it.

 

[swingpass]

Wright has more upside than Kellaway, I believe.

and consistently much more downside

 

[Ignoto]

lineout has gone from being very reliable in the first 4 rounds to shaky in the last 2. Both the Force & Brumbies has some success targeting us ther

I thought similar until I saw the match stats and the Brumbies had a worse line out than we did. So I'm optimistic that while it's a dip the Brumbies are one of the best lineout teams.

For me, everything seems to be pointing in the right direction bar ball retention. Constantly turning over the pill has caused us to let teams back into the game or relives pressure on opposition teams without points.

I'm also pretty dirty with Sef Fegase as the injury to Hodgman has meant we've had our 4th string LH playing and that dropped ball at the end of the game hurt more than usual.

 

[TSR]

The Brumbies defensive lineout looked very sharp early. Charlie Cale does a good job there and, from memory, Neville at the back as well.

I think the ball retention issue in part is a product of trying to play a more expansive game and accepting that the players will make some errors pushing things at times. Although there were a couple of times on Saturday we just dropped it cold and at least two times (Campbell & Petaia) where the ball was dislodged in the tackle when I feel ball security should have been better.

Whilst I thought it was a very good game and I thought the Reds did plenty well I think there were also a bunch of basic, fixable mistakes. My hope is that the attack will be much more clinical in 3-4 weeks with a bit more time

 

[dru]

The Brumbies defensive lineout looked very sharp early. Charlie Cale does a good job there and, from memory, Neville at the back as well.

I think the ball retention issue in part is a product of trying to play a more expansive game and accepting that the players will make some errors pushing things at times. Although there were a couple of times on Saturday we just dropped it cold and at least two times (Campbell & Petaia) where the ball was dislodged in the tackle when I feel ball security should have been better.

Whilst I thought it was a very good game and I thought the Reds did plenty well I think there were also a bunch of basic, fixable mistakes. My hope is that the attack will be much more clinical in 3-4 weeks with a bit more

Thought it might be interesting to compare the possession stats in this line of discussion.

Reds/Brumbies

62% / 45%	Possession 1H/2H	38% / 55%
56% / 50%	Territory 1H/2H	44% / 50%

Also the turnovers conceded - Reds 15 to Brumbies 10

So ball retention was a real issue.

Still, if you recall the Eddie Jones thinking - make it happen in the first 3 phases or move on (or some such); we are chancing our hand looking for opportunity when it presents. This is going to chance the ball. At the same time, some of those turnovers were simply losing the ruck, and I think that is the specific issue.

The game plan has some strengths as well as the noted issues:
Clean breaks Reds 8: Brumbies 4
Defenders beaten Reds 27: Brumbies 11

At the end of the day we lost by one point where the Brumbies kicked 10 points (2 penalties and 2 conversions) to the Reds 2 points (1 conversion). I'd suggest where we lost this game is obvious and while Brumbies strengths (such as the ruck or claimed individual performances such Wright) set aside, we lost this from the kicking tee.

 

[TSR]

On the ball retention/turnover stats - I re-watched the mini of the game today. Reds had 3-4 other chances to add points in the first half. A couple that the Brumbies did well to shut down. A couple they just blew. Would’ve changed the complexion of the game.

 

[dru]

On the ball retention/turnover stats - I re-watched the mini of the game today. Reds had 3-4 other chances to add points in the first half. A couple that the Brumbies did well to shut down. A couple they just blew. Would’ve changed the complexion of the game.

There is plenty of room on the upside for sure. All the same I'm pretty happy with the structure and plan and an ongoing program of incremental improvement coupled with adjustment when oppositions put up something we struggle with - Brumbies and Force being obvious.

 

[eastman]

How good has Ravai been by the way!? He‘s been one of, if not the, best player all season.

 

[Wallaby Tragic]

I have crossed this to the Wallaby thread - this is afterall the Reds page.