I think when selecting for this test several things must be considered
a) winning the Test match - To do this we will NEED set piece solidity, breakdown accuracy and timing (though that will improve with a more practise of the attacking shape. We won't be caught short so often) and MAUL DEFENSE.
b) Try answering some of the questions thrown up by how last week unfolded with an eye to the RWC (now and only now is this allowed, once we're into playing NZ I want us to just be thinking WIN and get used to winning). Such questions as
- Is Skelton truly a weak scrummager? What is Australia's strongest scrummaging tight 5 (a more pertinent question than top props IMO)?
- Can Poey and Hooper be deployed effectively from the start of games? If so, for how long before the burden of having to use short lineouts and other tricks to cover set piece deficiencies is exposed?
- Does Quade deserve to start games at RWC? What is the best combination of 10/12 to manage the balance of attacking go forward vs the obvious width/speed the Wallabies will try to play at?
- Can Quade or Giteau kick goals well enough that it isn't worth considering Foley or Lealiifano ahead of them (or on bench) for this reason?
- Do any of our wingers have any genuine pace?
With those in mind, this is what I would go with (short explanations after each group).
1. Sio
2. Moore
3. Kepu
16. Slipper
17. TPN
18. Holmes
Slipper didn't play well last week, and as has been noted previously should be managed carefully. Furthermore, Sio's carries were very powerful last week and I want to see more of him from the start of matches to make a good comparison. I think Slipper will start at RWC but I want Sio playing into red hot form as insurance. Kepu and Holmes both need to keep accumulating minutes and scrums. Kepu in particular I want to pack and succeed in as many Test scrums this year as possible so that when we arrive at Twickenham, the world (and in particular referees) have seen that the Wob scrum is by and large competitive.
4. Skelton
5. Horwill
19. Simmons
Ok hear me out. Simmo is top lock and Skelton struggled last week in patches but he won't improve at what he needs to by coming off the bench. Furthermore, note that in Super Rugby Skelton packs at TH lock behind Kepu at Tahs and Simmons packs at TH behind Holmes at Reds where Horwill packs behind Slipper. Against Boks I'm pretty sure it was Skelton at TH and Simmo at LH , but at one of them was in an unaccustomed position at the scrum. What I want to try out is putting Horwill at LH and Skelton at TH from the start. This serves a number of purposes
- These two are probably the wallabies best two defenders of the maul.
- Horwill or Fardy runs lineout (good experience in case Simmo goes down later in year)
- Gives opportunity to examine a few of the possible tight 5 scrummaging permutations under heavy pressure and through selective use of bench isolate out likely weak links (e.g if we improve again after Skelton comes off, with Horwill and Simmo in their preferred alignment then that gives useful information going forward).
- Rewards Horwill for a good performance last week. Keeps him hungry for more minutes and starts. Not a bad thing to have in your likely bench lock.
- Gives chance to play a portion of the game with two jumping locks and the Pocock/Hooper combo and examine the value in that set up.
6. Fardy
7. Hooper (with instructions to keep his fucking head down and push)
8. Pocock
20. Higgers
Risky but worth it in my view. Pocock is obviously strong and will provide plenty of power from the back of the scrum with some instruction. On defensive scrums Hooper 7 (to tackle) and Pocock 8 (to pilfer) on attacking scrums you could use Hooper's speed from 8 but I don't see it as necessary, Dave's style of running (tight, drive through heavy traffic) is completely adequate for running from 8 if the ball is scrappy. Obviously a lineout problem, so as I said above a combination of short lineouts, trick throws and double bluff and actually use Skelton (have seen him jump so I don't believe he can't leave the ground, just that if he's contested he'd probably lose) and Pocock (actually took a few for the Force a few years ago when playing in tandem with Hodgson) for as long as practical before subbing on Simmons and/or Higgers. Pocock and Hooper simply have to be tried out and this is the only real opportunity.
9. Phipps
10. Cooper
12. To'omua
21. White
22. Giteau
I reckon this gives us a chance to examine two combinations that may serve us very well, Cooper/To'omua (historically very good) and To'omua/Giteau (promising in the end of last week's Test). Foley unlucky to not get a crack. If Phipps can keep the pace up and stay accurate/composed he may edge ahead of Genia in the race for the 9 jersey.
11. Tomane
14. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
15. Folau
23. Mitchell
Tomane comes straight in for Horne (reward for great Super Rugby form). Would be interesting to use him in the same role of midfield defence and offer him a chance to show he could belt blokes and improve his chances of locking down a gig for the year. Tempting to use this game to establish a legitimate back up to Folau (Mitchell?, Beale?, Foley even?)
So there