I actually could see the Poms getting knocked out early. Whilst not doubting their strengths - lineouts/scrum/decent forward pack. I think they've got a lot of weaknesses.
Scrum half is a real problem area and they will be relying on Ben Youngs to overcome injury and find form quickly.
Wilkinson whilst playing reasonably well still sits too deep and struggles to get his backline going, they are poor at counter attack which is a key area of the game now especially kick return, and from the friendlies I watched, they really don't seem to have any clear game plan or idea of what they are trying to achieve.
They have little presence 'on the ball' like Pococky, Brussow and/or McCaw and Moody, whilst a real goer is just not in the same class. Easter is a lumbering player and will really struggle in an up tempo game on a dry pitch. Lawes is still a work in progress, can be easily rattled and can go missing. He can hit though also!
Croft is world class but hooker is another problem area with Thompson prone to poor throws.
As I said, the best hope they've got is a real wet and windy WC and the game being played in very much English conditions. And they just keep it tight, kick to the corners and take penalty goals and drop goals all day.
They have to overcome Argentina and Scotland in the pools and I can see them losing atleast one of these - possible Scotland. But if the Argies pull one out of the bag and win the first game... puts a lot of pressure on England to put away Scotland.
Losing twice would see them out perhaps. Losing once puts them in line for a All Black or SAfrican QF by my calculations.
Win both, and win the pool and they are on Australia's side of the draw (SF match up possibly).
