Maybe, maybe. Look, I don't want to write anyone off, and Knox showed by beating Riverview that they're a handy side. But that loss to Oakhill suggests to me that they're a step or two behind Barker and Waverley.
I don't deny that Knox were strong coming through in this age group, but that means less than it used to. If you look back at the CAS Under-16 side two years ago, Waverley had 11 of the 25 representatives, which accurately reflected its position in that competition. Waverley beat Knox 38-14, incidentally. Barker had six, Knox four, Trinity three and St Aloysius one. I accept that this is an imperfect proxy for the strength of the age group, but on that basis you'd expect Waverley to boss it over everyone with Barker and Knox fighting over the scraps.
But, as we know, teams change a lot these days with newcomers into Year 11, and of course some schools with weaker age groups promote younger players over them into the Firsts (a few years back, for example, almost all of Cranbrook's 1st XV were in Year 11). The fact is, Barker has gone from having a really good core of players (those six CAS reps included Slack-Smith and Sangala) to being on par with Waverley. That said, I don't think it's out of the question that Knox could beat them.