NSW CAS Rugby 2021

[Snort]

Trial game form means SFA. Just an observation.

Well, steady on. Trial game form is meaningful. It's the best data you have to go on if you want to make predictions. It just doesn't mean that Barker will win 5-0.

What the data show so far is that we have a two-speed competition. Waverley and Barker are justifiably favourites to fight it out for the Shield with Knox an outside chance of springing an upset. Then you have Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius, whose best chance of a win is against each other. I think most people expect the competition to be decided on 17 July when Barker plays Waverley, and trial form doesn't really clear up who's most likely to win that one.

Barker's romp against Newington was certainly impressive; but, since Newington had half its best side out, the scoreline is probably slightly flattering. Waverley's win over St Augustine's was numerically less impressive but, if St Augustine's were up to their usual standard, it was an impressive result.

Speaking of trial form, it's interesting that the Associated Schools have held up pretty well against their GPS/ISA opponents. On Saturday all five Associated Schools won, although of course the standard of their opposition varied significantly.

 

[WLF]

Well, steady on. Trial game form is meaningful. It's the best data you have to go on if you want to make predictions. It just doesn't mean that Barker will win 5-0.

What the data show so far is that we have a two-speed competition. Waverley and Barker are justifiably favourites to fight it out for the Shield with Knox an outside chance of springing an upset. Then you have Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius, whose best chance of a win is against each other. I think most people expect the competition to be decided on 17 July when Barker plays Waverley, and trial form doesn't really clear up who's most likely to win that one.

Barker's romp against Newington was certainly impressive; but, since Newington had half its best side out, the scoreline is probably slightly flattering. Waverley's win over St Augustine's was numerically less impressive but, if St Augustine's were up to their usual standard, it was an impressive result.

Speaking of trial form, it's interesting that the Associated Schools have held up pretty well against their GPS/ISA opponents. On Saturday all five Associated Schools won, although of course the standard of their opposition varied significantly.

Snort, I think both yours and ZHC observations are correct.
I understand ZHC's reasoning and had he elaborated a bit more I think you may have been closer in agreeing.
It's way too early to say we have a two speed comp.

A lot of it, as you pointed out, depends on who was playing on the ground in the particular games.
Barker, appear to leave their 1sts team unchanged for the vast majority of most games, for their own reasoning, although happy to be corrected as I wasn't there. Point in hand, last year Barker put 80 on Aloys before they apparently made wholesale changes to their 1sts team. When Waves played Aloys they changed their team dramatically at half time, and I suspect Knox did similar.

In the trials so far, Waves have done exactly the same, wholesale changes once the game is in hand, you can see this as the rate of scoring slows down dramatically!
In addition, neither Waves nor Auggies had their best sides on.

Having said all that Barker have posted the most impressive results thus far!
I suspect their real litmus test will be this sat v Joeys at Joeys, and then we will see how many posts per minute hit the site. Likewise when Knox and Barker both play View.

I have also always maintained that Knox are a real chance this year, remember Joeys won by 1 try, albeit they may have bombed a few, and Cranbrook will push all teams imo. Trinity may also surprise according to some recent posters.
Then there are injuries unforeseen, but hope this happens to no team.

SO, a loooong way to go.

1 great thing I have observed is that the crowds are back, and in force, wonderful, let's keep it that way!

 

[Snort]

Snort, I think both yours and ZHC observations are correct.
I understand ZHC's reasoning and had he elaborated a bit more I think you may have been closer in agreeing.

A lot of it, as you pointed out, depends on who was playing on the ground in the particulars games.
Barker, appear to leave their 1sts team unchanged for the vast majority of most games, for their own reasoning, although happy to be corrected as I wasn't there. Point in hand, last year Barker put 80 on Aloys before they apparently made wholesale changes to their 1sts team. When Waves played Aloys they changed their team dramatically at half time, and I suspect Knox did similar.

In the trials so far Waves have done exactly the same, wholesale changes once the game is in hand, you can see this as the rate of scoring slows down dramatically!

Having said all that Barker do look the team to beat so far!
I suspect their real litmus test will be this sat v Joeys at Joeys, and then we will see how many posts per minute will come from the Barker clan. Likewise when Knox and Barker both play View.

I have also maintained that Knox are a real chance this year, remember Joeys won by 1 try, albeit they may have bombed a few, and Cranbrook will push all teams imo. Trinity may also surprise according to some recent posters.
Then there are injuries unforeseen, but hope this happens to no team.

SO, a loooong way to go.

1 great thing I have observed is that the crowds are back, and in force, wonderful, let's keep it that way!

WLF, I basically agree with this. Having said that trial form matters, I would also say that I don't read too much into the Knox/Joeys result. Joeys are often one school whose trial teams don't resemble their final XV all that closely. A few years back, Trinity beat Joeys in the trials, after which Joeys cleaned up in the GPS competition - with rather a different side - while Trinity underperformed in the CAS.

Of course, even when schools do chop and change, it tells you something about their depth, as is often the case with Joeys. If you have 14 teams in the Opens I guess it takes a while to sort through them all!

Yes, Barker and Joeys will be very interesting. And I'm expecting Waverley to make a mess of Shore.

 

[Snort]

Ok, I'm over 50 so you can't expect me to understand how the internet works. But here's a request. Bear with me, OK?

Here's my idea of a useless post: "Barker to win every game!" Or "This is Cranbrook's year!"

It might make you feel better. But that's no reason to do it in front of other people.

On the other hand, here's my idea of a useful post: "Waverley will do well this year, because the combination in the halves of X and Y looks very dangerous. On Saturday, they controlled play well and set up several tries, creating lots of space for Z in the centre." Or, "Trinity is in trouble because Q, their ball-winning flanker, is out for three weeks with an ankle injury."

In other words, by all means express an opinion, but give us some facts to back it up. Otherwise, you're just barking at the moon.

Speaking of which, here's a scientifically proven fact: spruiking a player's talents in this forum has never helped anyone to gain selection in any team, ever. Bear that in mind.

And have a good season!

 

[WLF]

Ok, I'm over 50 so you can't expect me to understand how the internet works. But here's a request. Bear with me, OK?

Here's my idea of a useless post: "Barker to win every game!" Or "This is Cranbrook's year!"

It might make you feel better. But that's no reason to do it in front of other people.

On the other hand, here's my idea of a useful post: "Waverley will do well this year, because the combination in the halves of X and Y looks very dangerous. On Saturday, they controlled play well and set up several tries, creating lots of space for Z in the centre." Or, "Trinity is in trouble because Q, their ball-winning flanker, is out for three weeks with an ankle injury."

In other words, by all means express an opinion, but give us some facts to back it up. Otherwise, you're just barking at the moon.

Speaking of which, here's a scientifically proven fact: spruiking a player's talents in this forum has never helped anyone to gain selection in any team, ever. Bear that in mind.

And have a good season!

Spoken like a true lawyer!

 

[formerflanker]

Worth noting that St Pats had 2 year 9 boys playing (#13 and #15). Both are great players and handled themselves really well.

That is really something. Without knowing their ages and abilities, I'd normally say yr 9s shouldn't be playing opens, especially 1sts.
St Pats would have done a lot of soul searching before they allowed that to happen.

 

[Hector]

Ages - both moved from 14A to 1st XV, so genuine year 9 ages. They are a little slight by some 1st XV standards, but fast, skilled and pretty tough from what I saw.

Ability - obviously very talented. Both played NSW PPSA Primary School rugby & the #13 also played NSW PPSA Primary School league. Both play / played league and as you would expect, are in the various league talent pathways. #15 also plays AFL and I hear he is very good at that also.

I don't know either of them personally, but reports from those who do, say that they are both very level headed kids.

I thought it was difficult to tell the #13 and the #15 were year 9s, they certainly didn't look out of place. Funnily enough Aloys had an #8 and a #15 in the PSSA sides (the main one and the 'invitational') back in 2018 as well as the Pats boys, but they're plying trade in the u15s at the moment.

It was hard to get a great take on the SAC v SPC game. Both sides not fluid in attack, as one try in the whole game might show, with a lot of dropped ball and penalties. But the turnovers were largely created by serious defensive pressure on both sides. SAC defence looks greatly improved, so even if fluency in attack may come (and they do look good when it works, but who doesn't), which hopefully assists in preventing blow out scores of the type 2020 saw.

 

[Rucklover]

I thought it was difficult to tell the #13 and the #15 were year 9s, they certainly didn't look out of place. Funnily enough Aloys had an #8 and a #15 in the PSSA sides (the main one and the 'invitational') back in 2018 as well as the Pats boys, but they're plying trade in the u15s at the moment.

It was hard to get a great take on the SAC v SPC game. Both sides not fluid in attack, as one try in the whole game might show, with a lot of dropped ball and penalties. But the turnovers were largely created by serious defensive pressure on both sides. SAC defence looks greatly improved, so even if fluency in attack may come (and they do look good when it works, but who doesn't), which hopefully assists in preventing blow out scores of the type 2020 saw.

I was not at the game but from all accounts sounds like you are on the money here Hector. From those that were at the game seems like the aloys boys aren't playing pretty rugby, but it sure is tough, constantly working for eachother and defence we haven't seen from the milsons point boys in years. Time will tell

 

[Flavio]

If anyone is interested a few Barker, Joeys & ex Lindfield Rugby Juniors dads are going to have a bite at the Hunters Hill Hotel before the game on Sat

 

[Snort]

So, more trials on Saturday. But only one looks really interesting. I have a sneaky suspicion that Barker will knock off Joeys. If the match were eight weeks later, I might think differently, but Joeys are often vulnerable in the trials because they tend to treat them as trials, whereas Barker will be fired up for a big scalp.

Waverley will eat Shore alive, Trinity will do enough to account for St Pius, St Aloysius will have a hard day at the office against Scots 2s and I imagine Cranbrook will account for Kinross Wollaroi, although that really is a pure guess.

Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius will have a good day if they get away with no injuries.

 

[Hasbeen]

After watching Barker in the last 2 games here are a few observations. First is that they have no achilles heal. The entire starting XV is very competent. Of note though is the tight 5. They play as a unit. Dominant at scrum time and truly epic in defense. 2 players tackling together low and driving means slow ball for the opposition something Newington discovered today. In Conner Grills6 & and Joel Kardash 7 they have 2 strong fetchers, and great ball runners. The Reds capt Ned Slack Smith 5 try performance was just huge. He carried 3 defenders across the line with him in 3 of his tries. Leads by example in the tackles as well. The halves combination of Goug Philipson and Isaiya Kotoa had their best game to date. great service from first phase by Philipson which gives time and space to Katoa. He never over plays his hand giving front foot ball to his centres all day. Its going to be tough to drop either Kennedy12 or Galloway 13 when Eli Sagala returns. The centres ran hard and straight all day and with Reid ,McIntyre and Hollow with speed and skill outwide, the points flow. Next weeks game against Joeys at Joeys will be the wake up call and give a true indication of Barkers standing. It is making to be a great game of rugby.

Is it possible Rod to draw any comparisons with the 2018 team? I understand if you would rather not go there. It may be too early to tell.

 

[Bob_Jones]

Does anyone have any insights into how the schools manage to work out who plays who each week.

Do all the GPS, CAS, ISA schools sit down in a room at the start of the season and offer up teams (eg. Ill give you a match up with my 14As, if you give me a match up with your 15E's, etc), etc until all teams across all schools have a game or is it more one on one conversations between schools until as many teams have games as can be, then each school goes off to find another school who has unmatched teams?

Either way sounds pretty difficult.

 

[Joker]

Does anyone have any insights into how the schools manage to work out who plays who each week.

Do all the GPS, CAS, ISA schools sit down in a room at the start of the season and offer up teams (eg. Ill give you a match up with my 14As, if you give me a match up with your 15E's, etc), etc until all teams across all schools have a game or is it more one on one conversations between schools until as many teams have games as can be, then each school goes off to find another school who has unmatched teams?

Either way sounds pretty difficult.

The sports master at Joeys has a very hard job. When the trials are announced he has to arrange games for 41 teams. While all A teams play one another, this does not apply for the rest. (See below) Joeys 3rds would blow Barker off the ground, so there is no gain to be made. They then approach a team who would provide sterner opposition. It is hard to match them up so they contact other schools and offer games with them to fill in the gaps. There are of course blow outs for both sides. It is hard though to get this right.

Note the Joeys 14ths (made up of yr 11 and 12 ladds) will be playing the 12th XV made up of year 12 only. Should be a cracker!

 

[WLF]

So, more trials on Saturday. But only one looks really interesting. I have a sneaky suspicion that Barker will knock off Joeys. If the match were eight weeks later, I might think differently, but Joeys are often vulnerable in the trials because they tend to treat them as trials, whereas Barker will be fired up for a big scalp.

Waverley will eat Shore alive, Trinity will do enough to account for St Pius, St Aloysius will have a hard day at the office against Scots 2s and I imagine Cranbrook will account for Kinross Wollaroi, although that really is a pure guess.

Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius will have a good day if they get away with no injuries.

Snort, whilst I know Trinity won some time ago v Joeys, I don't believe that Joeys are often vulnerable at any time, understand your view on how they use the trials but so far they have flogged every team they have played.

Yep, they focus on winning the big dance when it counts, smart, but so do some other schools.

Can't see them taking it easy against a team that is rated highly. Joeys, like every school wants to win every game at this level.
The rain, slower grounds, may reduce scoring in every game but hope not.

 

[FoleyBealeFolau]

Just had a quick glance at the new U20s Wallabies camp squad and saw that Pollard and Paddy Tagg (Cranbrook) had earnt a call up. Exciting stuff for them.

 

[Snort]

Snort, whilst I know Trinity won some time ago v Joeys, I don't believe that Joeys are often vulnerable at any time, understand your view on how they use the trials but so far they have flogged every team they have played.

Yep, they focus on winning the big dance when it counts, smart, but so do some other schools.

Can't see them taking it easy against a team that is rated highly. Joeys, like every school wants to win every game at this level.
The rain, slower grounds, may reduce scoring in every game but hope not.

I wouldn't have said they flogged Knox?

 

[Bolivia]

Brook playing Scots

 

[Running_rugby_1954]

Trinity looking strong after some good pre season wins. Think this article really shows their potential for the year. Especially with their win over a strong cranbrook team as well.

https://rugbynews.net.au/trinity-hoping-speed-is-key-to-cas-success-after-strong-start-to-preseason/

 

[Snort]

Trinity looking strong after some good pre season wins. Think this article really shows their potential for the year. Especially with their win over a strong cranbrook team as well.

https://rugbynews.net.au/trinity-hoping-speed-is-key-to-cas-success-after-strong-start-to-preseason/

Well, I hope so. But those fast backs need the ball, and the forwards need to improve enormously over their trial form to threaten Waverley, Barker or Knox.

 

[rod skellet]

Is it possible Rod to draw any comparisons with the 2018 team? I understand if you would rather not go there. It may be too early to tell.

Giday Hasbeen.. Interesting question . Both of those sides had some rare talent.2018 had Pollard Reimer, Dring and Tejcek while 2021 has potentially 3 NSW players in it given the raw talent I have seen in last 2 games. Both teams have dominant scrums but the 2018 side have a better line out. The halves combination of the 2021 side is sublime and the outside backs are on par. I reckon the 2018 side would win by 3 points.